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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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40 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I'm not buying the drier solutions from the GFS last few runs, especially when the ensembles seems to agree on a wetter pattern. And FWIW, the GFS operational is going back to the wetter solutions as well. 

18Z is already a bit wetter at its current time frame in the mid-range compares to the previous runs.  Clearly a lean towards the 12z Euro. 

models-2021101518-f114.qpf_acc.us_nw.gif

Yep. 18z GFS took a step towards the wetter GEFS, EPS, EURO Op. C'MON!!!!

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

00z GFS in 4 hours 40 minutes

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Looking good!

GFS Precip Totals.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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18z GFS would get us to average for the month, maybe more. We're around 2.4" now, average for October is 6.29". Getting into the wet season now. We average about 50" total November-March.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Since we are talking about sports in here. This Oregon team bores the hell out of me. Completely uninteresting. Their defense which was supposed to be good is absolutely terrible, they completely gave that game away against Stanford. I have no idea how they beat Ohio State. They have the talent to be a national title contender, but look like a total fraud. 

Oregon caught Ohio State early. Ohio state had a redshirt freshman for a quarterback who was hurt. A true freshman running back, true freshman cornerback, 2 true freshman  dline players, a true freshman linebacker… that’s just the freshman. They are young young and Oregon played well and caught them early 

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Some pepto for the Oregon Cascades. Nice base for Bachelor to build on.

GFS Snowfall Totals.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I know everyone likes to look at full runs... but the 18Z run after 240 hours obviously does not mean much of anything.    Same is true for any run beyond day 10 actually... except maybe the EPS.

This is the precip anomaly map from the 18Z GFS through day 10...

gfs-deterministic-nw-qpf_anom_10day-5184800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I know everyone like to look at full runs... but the 18Z run after 240 hours obviously does not mean much of anything.    Same is true for any run beyond day 10 actually... except maybe the EPS.

This is the precip anomalies from the 18Z GFS through day 10...

gfs-deterministic-nw-qpf_anom_10day-5184800.png

 

yeah-so-what-else-is-new.jpg

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11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

yeah-so-what-else-is-new.jpg

Just pointing out that its actually a fairly dry run through day 10.   That has not happened very often over the last month.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Outlier. Trending wetter. 

12Z EPS anomaly map through day 10 is almost identical... and was actually a little drier than its 00Z run.  The 18Z GFS is an outlier through day 10... but then dead on after day 10?  😀

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-qpf_anom_10day-5163200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think someone had posted this a few days ago but I can’t find it…Have there been any back to back Nina’s that did not produce “The Goodies”?

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I think someone had posted this a few days ago but I can’t find it…Have there been any back to back Nina’s that did not produce “The Goodies”?

Not sure... but according to Rod Hill there is literally ZERO chance this winter will be wetter than normal.    Seems a little too absolute for a prediction to me.    But colder and drier than normal usually has some "goodies".   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Rod did say there has been I believe 9 back-to-back Ninas since 1950 and 8 of the 2nd year Nina were drier than normal. Something like that. How many were snowier? Who knows.

10-11 and 11-12 was a back to back nina that produced nothing from Nov-Feb. Some slop in March of 2012 that melted by the afternoon.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

10-11 and 11-12 was a back to back nina that produced nothing from Nov-Feb. Some slop in March of 2012 that melted by the afternoon.

You can make a historic event sound so dull. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You can make a historic event sound so dull. 

Sadly, I also missed out on that one. I was in Taft in Lincoln City which apparently did not experience a historic event. And it still wasn't impressive from Nov-Feb which is more important IMO.

Most likely an aberration though. At some point the other shoe would drop, one would think anyway.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

I wouldn’t call back to back La Niñas “rare”. In fact most La Niñas come in pairs.

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69/20 here, so close to a 50 departure. 

Come on rain! 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I wouldn’t call back to back La Niñas “rare”. In fact most La Niñas come in pairs.

Happened twice in the last decade. This will be the third pair in the last 12 years.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I know everyone likes to look at full runs... but the 18Z run after 240 hours obviously does not mean much of anything.    Same is true for any run beyond day 10 actually... except maybe the EPS.

This is the precip anomaly map from the 18Z GFS through day 10...

gfs-deterministic-nw-qpf_anom_10day-5184800.png

yikes-rachel-dratch.gif.c74e828367fd32dbc47f96758e4656a8.gif

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30 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

10-11 and 11-12 was a back to back nina that produced nothing from Nov-Feb. Some slop in March of 2012 that melted by the afternoon.

Those were both back to back ski resort seasons at least. No shortage of snow where it counts most.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Interestingly both 10-11 and 11-12 did feature a dry month in the mix just for kicks. If we get another splitty January I feel that before and after that will end up different. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2010-11 and 2011-12 were great up here. I’d take a repeat of either. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Radar would make you think it's pouring rain here... but just went outside and it's dry and mild and the moon is shining through some high clouds.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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