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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Too soon!

Why? Mid November has historically produced some really impressive cold airmasses in the NW when it's dislodged south.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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15 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Why? Mid November has historically produced some really impressive cold airmasses in the NW when it's dislodged south.

I’d gladly take some cold and snow in November. Last time anything legit happened here in that month was 2010. Had some snow in 2014 and 2017 but those weren’t significant really. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2010-11 and 2011-12 were great up here. I’d take a repeat of either. 

November 2010, February 2011 and January 2012 all were great up here. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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26 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’d gladly take some cold and snow in November. Last time anything legit happened here in that month was 2010. Had some snow in 2014 and 2017 but those weren’t significant really. 

2017 was fantastic. Had about 8-10 inches that stuck around for 4 days in South Hill. Longest in awhile that I had 6+ inches on my street without melting. School was cancelled for 3 straight days with this storm which is impressive cause it happened on the weekend. 

6287B70B-E052-4B33-9E7A-33D8BFD7AC5D.jpeg

C1D1B707-D0A7-4939-B776-866DB13A86C5.jpeg

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I don’t think PDX south has had snow in November since 2010. Its pretty uncommon down here. Even at our elevation we have only had one significant November snow event in 10 years, in 2011.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I know it's the long range, and not quite just the PNW, but I still think this good news should be shared here

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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44 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Why? Mid November has historically produced some really impressive cold airmasses in the NW when it's dislodged south.

True, though the majority of early season cold outbreaks are forced more directly via tropical/mid latitude dynamics out of Eurasia (IE: Siberian High descent/EAMT & how it relates to Indo-Pacific convection/WTs).

The trop/strat coupling isn’t well developed at this time of year, so there’s limited potential. There are interesting early season cases, of course (for example, Nov/Dec 1996) that produced highly anomalous patterns, but generally speaking, the large scale displacement of deep Arctic air via PV disruption is something you seldom see before the winter solstice. 

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48 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’d gladly take some cold and snow in November. Last time anything legit happened here in that month was 2010. Had some snow in 2014 and 2017 but those weren’t significant really. 

When I think of November and snow, 2006 comes to mind. 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

10-11 and 11-12 was a back to back nina that produced nothing from Nov-Feb. Some slop in March of 2012 that melted by the afternoon.

Not at all true up here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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00Z GFS pretty much washes out the front on Sunday up here... might stay dry that day as well in the Seattle area with a high around 60.

The next system that moves inland and brings more significant rain is not until day 9 on this run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z GFS keeps the theme of generally dry for the inland areas of western WA for the next 10 days... only shows .25-.50 total through day 10 for the Seattle area and out here as well. 

gfs-deterministic-nw-qpf_anom_10day-5206400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS pretty much washes out the front on Sunday up here... might stay dry that day as well in the Seattle area with a high around 60.

The next system that moves inland and brings more significant rain is not until day 9 on this run.  

You’re witnessing what has happened to Oregon for the past couple of years. Models tease and then take away. It’s always 7, 10, 14 days out. Very rarely comes to fruition. 
 

That’s why I have been saying to use the 10th percentile on the GFS/Euro ensembles for a realistic QPF forecast beyond a few days. I swear by it. 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Was this forecast for y'all up in Washington?

katx_20211016_0446_BR_0.9.png

klgx_20211016_0446_BR_0.2.png

Shown in the models for many days... and just about where it was projected to be at this time.    Its been totally dry here since early this morning but raining all day just to the north.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well...I have a very interesting list of Octobers that averaged below 52.0 for the first half of October from 1945 to present at SEA.  This is regardless of ENSO and is pretty astonishing.  This year came in number 6 on the list.

1946 - 49.7 - Cold snowy November and cold snowy January.

1949 - 50.2 - Huge winter

1955 - 51.8 - Consistently cold and snowy winter

1968 - 50.9 - Huge winter

1973 - 50.8 - Cool winter (probably the weakest of the bunch)

1981 - 50.8 - Major cold outbreak and snow in January

1983 - 51.6 - Very cold December

1990 - 51.6 - Epic December

2021 - 51.3 - ?

All in all a really strong batch of winters for just screening the years with one set of criteria.

 

 

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

You’re witnessing what has happened to Oregon for the past couple of years. Models tease and then take away. It’s always 7, 10, 14 days out. Very rarely comes to fruition. 
 

That’s why I have been saying to use the 10th percentile on the GFS/Euro ensembles for a realistic QPF forecast beyond a few days. I swear by it. 

Yea it works in the summer and fall when it generally pretty dry. Come November, that hypothesis will not hold up. 

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

You’re witnessing what has happened to Oregon for the past couple of years. Models tease and then take away. It’s always 7, 10, 14 days out. Very rarely comes to fruition. 
 

That’s why I have been saying to use the 10th percentile on the GFS/Euro ensembles for a realistic QPF forecast beyond a few days. I swear by it. 

Well... after getting more than a foot of rain over the last month I am really looking forward to a decent weekend and maybe a nice week ahead. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Shown in the models for many days... and just about where it was projected to be at this time.    Its been totally dry here since early this morning but raining all day just to the north.  

Right.  It's been raining nearly nonstop all day here.  Mostly light rain until mid-afternoon.  

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Was this forecast for y'all up in Washington?

katx_20211016_0446_BR_0.9.png

klgx_20211016_0446_BR_0.2.png

That seems a bit more extreme than what had been shown although the models have advertised a crazy N to S cloud to clear gradient.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Too soon!

Yeah I would prefer it hold off until November... but maybe the SSW can help us get an early taste of winter in mid-late November? We can still do good in the cold and snow department at that time of year. At least we hopefully won't have to wait until February again for winter to arrive.

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The GFS has had a serious change of heart for week two.  Pretty insane trough being shown now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...I have a very interesting list of Octobers that averaged below 52.0 for the first half of October from 1945 to present at SEA.  This is regardless of ENSO and is pretty astonishing.  This year came in number 6 on the list.

1946 - 49.7 - Cold snowy November and cold snowy January.

1949 - 50.2 - Huge winter

1955 - 51.8 - Consistently cold and snowy winter

1968 - 50.9 - Huge winter

1973 - 50.8 - Cool winter (probably the weakest of the bunch)

1981 - 50.8 - Major cold outbreak and snow in January

1983 - 51.6 - Very cold December

1990 - 51.6 - Epic December

2021 - 51.3 - ?

All in all a really strong batch of winters for just screening the years with one set of criteria.

 

 

 

Nice work on this. Interesting list and possible analogs here.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS has had a serious change of heart for week two.  Pretty insane trough being shown now.

Still 10 days out... but the cold air just dives for CA and bypasses WA on this run.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-5206400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sometimes I wonder if we are looking at the same model runs.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Acer said:

Better hurry up.  We don't want to jeopardize our warm November.

Great point... the end of GFS run is now at the start of November.    Better hope for some warm long range solutions from here on out.   👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Too soon!

I've seen some mets talking about this early SSW possibly being a good omen for the winter though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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48 minutes ago, Phil said:

True, though the majority of early season cold outbreaks are forced more directly via tropical/mid latitude dynamics out of Eurasia (IE: Siberian High descent/EAMT & how it relates to Indo-Pacific convection/WTs).

The trop/strat coupling isn’t well developed at this time of year, so there’s limited potential. There are interesting early season cases, of course (for example, Nov/Dec 1996) that produced highly anomalous patterns, but generally speaking, the large scale displacement of deep Arctic air via PV disruption is something you seldom see before the winter solstice. 

Or, none of this matters.  Mother nature is gonna nature and she seems to be finding all kinds of new ways to do that all over the world no matter the circumstance. 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sometimes I wonder if we are looking at the same model runs.

Everyone sees what they want to see!   

I see plenty of dry, pleasant days ahead here... and most of the precip focused to the south where its needed.   A very nice change of pace.

That is of course after tonight and tomorrow when all the rain is focused to the north.  😃

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’d gladly take some cold and snow in November. Last time anything legit happened here in that month was 2010. Had some snow in 2014 and 2017 but those weren’t significant really. 

2014 was actually kind of nice.  It snowed and was followed by a pretty good cold shot and a few days of cold / clear weather where the snow lingered.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Or, none of this matters.  Mother nature is gonna nature and she seems to be finding all kinds of new ways to do that all over the world no matter the circumstance. 

So true.   

All we really know is that nothing will go according to anyone's plan or analogs.    That is almost a guarantee.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea it works in the summer and fall when it generally pretty dry. Come November, that hypothesis will not hold up. 

Perhaps. I actually think the 10th percentile is way too optimistic right now. The 12z EPS 10th percentile is at 2.47” in the next two weeks for PDX. The minimum of all 50 members is 1.11”. Median is 4.11”. 

I would put money on us staying below the 10th percentile if anyone is game. Theoretically, your odds are extremely good. 

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3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Or, none of this matters.  Mother nature is gonna nature and she seems to be finding all kinds of new ways to do that all over the world no matter the circumstance. 

The only thing you can really say for sure is our chances of scoring with a highly perturbed atmosphere in a second year Nina year are above average.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like a nice evening in Eugene.

And the #9 Ducks are not as impressive as that ranking indicates as Andrew said earlier.   They might end up winning... but they look sloppy against a 1-4 team.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS advertises another very cool day on Monday with afternoon temps only in the low 50s for the Seattle area.  I think it's putting way too much weight on the high clouds keeping min temps up Monday night though.  The models have a terrible habit of showing a solid cloud mass when it actually ends up being just extremely thin wispy clouds that barely inhibit cooling.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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There has been quite a few showers from 4pm thru just a little bit ago in the Kirkland - Bothell area. Currently 54° here in downtown Woodinville.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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