Jump to content

PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

Recommended Posts

Another clear blue day. 

Just now learning about a firestorm that happened 10/16/1991 near Spokane? Sounds unusually late in the year to be getting stuff like that.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Then why did they get it last winter with +QBO?  You must realize things aren't going according to script lately.

 

If things aren’t going according to script lately, does that also mean the cold October connection to winter also holds less weight?  

  • Popcorn 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Then why did they get it last winter with +QBO?  You must realize things aren't going according to script lately.

 

A given pattern can manifest in any winter. I’m only talking about lower frequency/seasonal scale tendencies.

I’m not saying this upcoming winter will flop. That would require an impossible degree of subseasonal precision given the extended time range.

However, likewise, I can’t predict a blockbuster either, and see nothing to indicate such an outcome is overly likely. One had better have a very good reason to outright *predict* a rare/anomalous outcome like 1949/50 or 2008/09, especially this far in advance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

A given pattern can manifest in any winter. I’m only talking about lower frequency/seasonal scale tendencies.

I’m not saying this upcoming winter will flop. I simply don’t see anything that would suggest another 1949/50 or 2008/09 is in the cards. You’d better have a good reason to predict something extremely anomalous like that 3+ months in advance. 

If we ever have another great winter we will never see it coming. 12 looks wetter In the mid range.

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Another clear blue day. 

Just now learning about a firestorm that happened 10/16/1991 near Spokane? Sounds unusually late in the year to be getting stuff like that.

I remember that day vividly. It was warm that morning, then a cold front passed with wind gusts over 60 mph. By that afternoon fires were burning everywhere.

  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

I remember that day vividly. It was warm that morning, then a cold front passed with wind gusts over 60 mph. By that afternoon fires were burning everywhere.

Assuming it was similar to the Labor Day 2020 fires? I can't imagine a traditional PNW wind event causing that much less in the smack middle of Fall. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Assuming it was similar to the Labor Day 2020 fires? I can't imagine a traditional PNW wind event causing that much less in the smack middle of Fall. 

My D.A.R.E. officer, Dave Skogen, @4:50

Labor day 2020 was a backdoor cold front with NNE winds. Firestorm 1991 was a Pacific cold front with WSW winds after the cold front passage.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we ever have another great winter we will never see it coming. 12 looks wetter In the mid range.

I think you’re most likely correct.

2008/09 and 2018/19 both kind of snuck up on us. The former was relatively zonal through the first half of autumn, then went full blown +PNA in November, while the latter displayed no signs of a favorable pacific pattern, at any point in time through late January. Just a few examples of many..1988/89 was also very ridgy through much of the autumn, then turned on a dime at the end of January.

On the other hand, 2019/20 and 2012/13 both had some very cold/dynamic patterns in the autumn that turned out to be a head-fake, as a warm and/or zonal winters followed. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Another clear blue day. 

Just now learning about a firestorm that happened 10/16/1991 near Spokane? Sounds unusually late in the year to be getting stuff like that.

I still remember 1991 very clearly.  We had a record dry period in September through much of October and then a legit Arctic outbreak.  It was highly abnormal and memorable.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

If things aren’t going according to script lately, does that also mean the cold October connection to winter also holds less weight?  

I guess we will find out.  All I know is like where we're at, except I wish we were looking at positive QBO this winter.  At this point the minus QBO is still only possible.   It hasn't gotten to the 50mb level yet, and the higher levels are already flipping.  2007-08 was a profoundly minus QBO.

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I still remember 1991 very clearly.  We had a record dry period in September through much of October and then a legit Arctic outbreak.  It was highly abnormal and memorable.

Trying to imagine anything drier than the .07" that fell 9/1 - 10/31 here last year. Guess it's happened before!

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The models are really going nuts with a very deep trough and stormy period later in the month.  Really dynamic October in the works.  Too bad that period will probably ruin the potential for great fall color though.  The cottonwoods are turning yellow here already instead of the typical brownish orange.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Trying to imagine anything drier than the .07" that fell 9/1 - 10/31 here last year. Guess it's happened before!

I know the stats were nuts up here.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models are really going nuts with a very deep trough and stormy period later in the month.  Really dynamic October in the works.  Too bad that period will probably ruin the potential for great fall color though.  The cottonwoods are turning yellow here already instead of the typical brownish orange.

We have some pretty decent fall colors going on right now in Tacoma…just getting started but some of the trees are looking pretty good right now not 2019 pretty though. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Some lowland snow for Halloween and a damaging windstorm for Oregon on the GFS

It rained up here when I was moving into this house 2/1/2012; now it could be snowing while packing up and leaving end of October!

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cloudy/windy/off and on sprinkles. 
.20” so far on the day.

57 degrees currently.

Spent the morning pulling the annuals out of the deck pots and getting the fall scarecrows in that my 3yr old loves! 

4DC4C6A1-80E7-47D1-B276-CE0F2AB01996.jpeg

  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Some lowland snow for Halloween and a damaging windstorm for Oregon on the GFS

We need to keep an eye on late month with that SSW going on.  For some reason Oct 25 to Nov 1 period is a great window for cold here.

The GFS is spitting out some crazy number for late month on the 12z.  One day shows a 43/34 for McChord with a number of other cold days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We have some pretty decent fall colors going on right now in Tacoma…just getting started but some of the trees are looking pretty good right now not 2019 pretty though. 

Getting the cottonwoods to turn pretty here is a real trick.  They usually turn brownish before they can get good color, but this year no sign of that so far.  No doubt the non native trees are going nuts with color here now after the freeze a few days back.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12Z GFS spits out a 44.5 average for the final week of the month.  Nippy!

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z ECMWF still likes widespread 30s Monday night.  It's cooler for tonight in the Central Sound area as well than earlier runs.

The amount of warm weather on the 12 GFS ensemble has been pruned to almost nothing now.  With the first half of the month being so cold it wouldn't take much to make this the coldest La Nina October since 1984.  A cold / extremely blocky / -QBO / 2nd year Nina winter BTW.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Lovely day!

December.

At least we're getting some sun here.  Really having a hard time clearing here.

And yes...December has a good shot this time.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We need to keep an eye on late month with that SSW going on.  For some reason Oct 25 to Nov 1 period is a great window for cold here.

The GFS is spitting out some crazy number for late month on the 12z.  One day shows a 43/34 for McChord with a number of other cold days.

1984 is the benchmark for late October cold here.  Halloween 1984 saw a 32/25 day with 7.5” of snow falling that night

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty darn impressive jet suppression for late October! 

 648796060_ScreenShot2021-10-16at1_32_11PM.thumb.png.b4ed1d8d5c73d6bd695f2dbb3d0a48fd.png

  • Like 3
  • Snow 1
  • Storm 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Bonovox said:

Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but the Euro was recently upgraded. Last week if I remember correctly. I believe one of the parameters they were specifically predicting to improve was precipitation totals.

Well, it has performed horribly so far. It was advertising a soaking for everybody west of the Cascades tomorrow as recently as the 12z run yesterday. All other models had trended towards the bust long before. The Euro is finally now on board with the bust the past couple of runs.

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...