TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Beautiful morning... 6 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Another clear blue day. Just now learning about a firestorm that happened 10/16/1991 near Spokane? Sounds unusually late in the year to be getting stuff like that. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Then why did they get it last winter with +QBO? You must realize things aren't going according to script lately. If things aren’t going according to script lately, does that also mean the cold October connection to winter also holds less weight? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Then why did they get it last winter with +QBO? You must realize things aren't going according to script lately. A given pattern can manifest in any winter. I’m only talking about lower frequency/seasonal scale tendencies. I’m not saying this upcoming winter will flop. That would require an impossible degree of subseasonal precision given the extended time range. However, likewise, I can’t predict a blockbuster either, and see nothing to indicate such an outcome is overly likely. One had better have a very good reason to outright *predict* a rare/anomalous outcome like 1949/50 or 2008/09, especially this far in advance. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Phil said: A given pattern can manifest in any winter. I’m only talking about lower frequency/seasonal scale tendencies. I’m not saying this upcoming winter will flop. I simply don’t see anything that would suggest another 1949/50 or 2008/09 is in the cards. You’d better have a good reason to predict something extremely anomalous like that 3+ months in advance. If we ever have another great winter we will never see it coming. 12 looks wetter In the mid range. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Another clear blue day. Just now learning about a firestorm that happened 10/16/1991 near Spokane? Sounds unusually late in the year to be getting stuff like that. I remember that day vividly. It was warm that morning, then a cold front passed with wind gusts over 60 mph. By that afternoon fires were burning everywhere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 minute ago, snow drift said: I remember that day vividly. It was warm that morning, then a cold front passed with wind gusts over 60 mph. By that afternoon fires were burning everywhere. Assuming it was similar to the Labor Day 2020 fires? I can't imagine a traditional PNW wind event causing that much less in the smack middle of Fall. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 12 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Assuming it was similar to the Labor Day 2020 fires? I can't imagine a traditional PNW wind event causing that much less in the smack middle of Fall. My D.A.R.E. officer, Dave Skogen, @4:50 Labor day 2020 was a backdoor cold front with NNE winds. Firestorm 1991 was a Pacific cold front with WSW winds after the cold front passage. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: If we ever have another great winter we will never see it coming. 12 looks wetter In the mid range. I think you’re most likely correct. 2008/09 and 2018/19 both kind of snuck up on us. The former was relatively zonal through the first half of autumn, then went full blown +PNA in November, while the latter displayed no signs of a favorable pacific pattern, at any point in time through late January. Just a few examples of many..1988/89 was also very ridgy through much of the autumn, then turned on a dime at the end of January. On the other hand, 2019/20 and 2012/13 both had some very cold/dynamic patterns in the autumn that turned out to be a head-fake, as a warm and/or zonal winters followed. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 36 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Another clear blue day. Just now learning about a firestorm that happened 10/16/1991 near Spokane? Sounds unusually late in the year to be getting stuff like that. I still remember 1991 very clearly. We had a record dry period in September through much of October and then a legit Arctic outbreak. It was highly abnormal and memorable. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 39 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: If things aren’t going according to script lately, does that also mean the cold October connection to winter also holds less weight? I guess we will find out. All I know is like where we're at, except I wish we were looking at positive QBO this winter. At this point the minus QBO is still only possible. It hasn't gotten to the 50mb level yet, and the higher levels are already flipping. 2007-08 was a profoundly minus QBO. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I still remember 1991 very clearly. We had a record dry period in September through much of October and then a legit Arctic outbreak. It was highly abnormal and memorable. Trying to imagine anything drier than the .07" that fell 9/1 - 10/31 here last year. Guess it's happened before! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 The models are really going nuts with a very deep trough and stormy period later in the month. Really dynamic October in the works. Too bad that period will probably ruin the potential for great fall color though. The cottonwoods are turning yellow here already instead of the typical brownish orange. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Trying to imagine anything drier than the .07" that fell 9/1 - 10/31 here last year. Guess it's happened before! I know the stats were nuts up here. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Some lowland snow for Halloween and a damaging windstorm for Oregon on the GFS 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Got down to 53 this morning…59 now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The models are really going nuts with a very deep trough and stormy period later in the month. Really dynamic October in the works. Too bad that period will probably ruin the potential for great fall color though. The cottonwoods are turning yellow here already instead of the typical brownish orange. We have some pretty decent fall colors going on right now in Tacoma…just getting started but some of the trees are looking pretty good right now not 2019 pretty though. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Some lowland snow for Halloween and a damaging windstorm for Oregon on the GFS It rained up here when I was moving into this house 2/1/2012; now it could be snowing while packing up and leaving end of October! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Cloudy/windy/off and on sprinkles. .20” so far on the day. 57 degrees currently. Spent the morning pulling the annuals out of the deck pots and getting the fall scarecrows in that my 3yr old loves! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 46 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Some lowland snow for Halloween and a damaging windstorm for Oregon on the GFS We need to keep an eye on late month with that SSW going on. For some reason Oct 25 to Nov 1 period is a great window for cold here. The GFS is spitting out some crazy number for late month on the 12z. One day shows a 43/34 for McChord with a number of other cold days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 42 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: We have some pretty decent fall colors going on right now in Tacoma…just getting started but some of the trees are looking pretty good right now not 2019 pretty though. Getting the cottonwoods to turn pretty here is a real trick. They usually turn brownish before they can get good color, but this year no sign of that so far. No doubt the non native trees are going nuts with color here now after the freeze a few days back. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Lovely day! December. 1 4 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 The 12Z GFS spits out a 44.5 average for the final week of the month. Nippy! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 The 12z ECMWF still likes widespread 30s Monday night. It's cooler for tonight in the Central Sound area as well than earlier runs. The amount of warm weather on the 12 GFS ensemble has been pruned to almost nothing now. With the first half of the month being so cold it wouldn't take much to make this the coldest La Nina October since 1984. A cold / extremely blocky / -QBO / 2nd year Nina winter BTW. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Lovely day! December. At least we're getting some sun here. Really having a hard time clearing here. And yes...December has a good shot this time. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The 12Z GFS spits out a 44.5 average for the final week of the month. Nippy! Christmas comes early. It fact, it starts next Friday in Hallmarkland. 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said: Some lowland snow for Halloween and a damaging windstorm for Oregon on the GFS Should make trick or treating fun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said: Some lowland snow for Halloween and a damaging windstorm for Oregon on the GFS Post the maps ppl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We need to keep an eye on late month with that SSW going on. For some reason Oct 25 to Nov 1 period is a great window for cold here. The GFS is spitting out some crazy number for late month on the 12z. One day shows a 43/34 for McChord with a number of other cold days. 1984 is the benchmark for late October cold here. Halloween 1984 saw a 32/25 day with 7.5” of snow falling that night 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Post the maps ppl 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted October 16, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Couple pics from cabin last weekend. Nice little surprise snow . 11 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Shiiiiiiiiiiit 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: My laziness appreciates it! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Shiiiiiiiiiiit Week 2 looks potentially stormy on the European 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 65 and sunny out here... might get to 70. Tomorrow looking dry as well now. Have to enjoy these short breaks. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Up to 60 here for the first time since the 5th! Collected 1.31" of rain from this past system. Feels kinda tropical out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Storm total of about 1” here so far. Kind of underwhelming but the rain shadow was pretty well defined here yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Pretty darn impressive jet suppression for late October! 3 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonovox Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but the Euro was recently upgraded. Last week if I remember correctly. I believe one of the parameters they were specifically predicting to improve was precipitation totals. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, Bonovox said: Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but the Euro was recently upgraded. Last week if I remember correctly. I believe one of the parameters they were specifically predicting to improve was precipitation totals. Well, it has performed horribly so far. It was advertising a soaking for everybody west of the Cascades tomorrow as recently as the 12z run yesterday. All other models had trended towards the bust long before. The Euro is finally now on board with the bust the past couple of runs. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.