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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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10 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Well, it has performed horribly so far. It was advertising a soaking for everybody west of the Cascades tomorrow as recently as the 12z run yesterday. All other models had trended towards the bust long before. The Euro is finally now on board with the bust the past couple of runs.

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Perfect day in the Oregon cascades. 

080B53F1-2403-49C3-9756-08F0BA46B80A.jpeg

004D3B07-DA96-4360-9698-6ECC17F90307.jpeg

I’m tempted to go back there sometime soon. Had an absolute blast going down there a month ago. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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One of the trees on the property has already dropped all its leaves on October 16. I'm pretty sure this same tree normally does this around or close to Thanksgiving. 

Though there are other trees that have yet to complete color transformation. 

IMG_2714.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

One of the trees on the property has already dropped all its leaves on October 16. I'm pretty sure this same tree normally does this around or close to Thanksgiving. 

Though there are other trees that have yet to complete color transformation. 

IMG_2714.JPG

We have some like that. Weird, huh?

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Just now, snow drift said:

We have some like that. Weird, huh?

About 15 feet away... 😜

IMG_2718.JPG

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

1984 is the benchmark for late October cold here.  Halloween 1984 saw a 32/25 day with 7.5” of snow falling that night

I distinctly remember the news people showing a major Fraser blast with blowing snow later that season also.  I think it was around New Years.

We had some snow in the Seattle area with that 1984 Halloween blast as well.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Week 2 looks potentially stormy on the European 

Chilly and stormy is even a better omen for a coming good winter than just cold in October according to past history.  I think I remember somebody doing a study a few years ago that found October precip amount might be even more important than temperature in determining the winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Chilly and stormy is even a better omen for a coming good winter than just cold in October according to past history.  I think I remember somebody doing a study a few years ago that found October precip amount might be even more important than temperature in determining the winter.

Andrew and I have both found that correlation.

Phil is a denier.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Not much action shown for here. Windstorm is likely to bust being in the clown range but Washington will probly see a nice snow event. Sadly, this part of the region is pretty boring over the last couple years.

GFS MSLP.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Temps in the upper 40s to low 50s. Business as usual.

GFS fucking north south gradient.png

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Snow totals through the run...time to move to Indiana.

GFS Snowfall Totals.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Up to a very nice 69F.

Good lord the airport is a godawful location for demonstrating temps here in the city.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The 70's are not done! Nice day.

Not counting all those burgers though. 🌋

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I distinctly remember the news people showing a major Fraser blast with blowing snow later that season also.  I think it was around New Years.

We had some snow in the Seattle area with that 1984 Halloween blast as well.  

That was a very cold December for northern areas at least. Much colder than 2008 in the monthly means at some stations. YXX put up a 30.7 for the month.  2 Fraser River events. One mid month and one between Christmas and new year’s. The late month one was colder and fairly snowy most places 

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing that's going to be interesting to see is if we get one of our infamous late October Arctic outbreaks with that SSW going on right now.  Very possible the models just aren't reacting to it yet.  If we get that this will easily be one of the coldest Octobers ever recorded if not the coldest.

Looking at the global SST maps it's apparent we have a full blown Nina / -PDO right now.  The PDO had already been low, but now it's obviously tanked.

Why do we want a late October arctic outbreak? December and January are the better months to maximize the cold. We don't want to use up our winter when it doesn't matter.

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19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Can you post Washington pls?

1635768000-Yg7CHAxjttE.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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9 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Why do we want a late October arctic outbreak? December and January are the better months to maximize the cold. We don't want to use up our winter when it doesn't matter.

Well we can’t control what Mother Nature throws our way so best to just enjoy it if it happens (unlikely). I do agree though if given a choice I’d rather it torch now and just have troughy cold outbreaks in December or January. Kind of feel the same about getting all these big snow events in February recently would be much more fun with lower sun angles but just gotta take what we get in this climate. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Snow totals through the run...time to move to Indiana.

GFS Snowfall Totals.png

Lol it’s probably not going to happen I wouldn’t worry about the clown range gfs. That snow up here will probably be gone by tomorrow nights model runs. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Well we can’t control what Mother Nature throws our way so best to just enjoy it if it happens (unlikely). I do agree though if given a choice I’d rather it torch now and just have troughy cold outbreaks in December or January. Kind of feel the same about getting all these big snow events in February recently would be much more fun with lower sun angles but just gotta take what we get in this climate. 

Perfect is the enemy of good. 

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And we have inexplicably lost power…

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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