Cloud Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 Warm day today! Temps still holding strong near the mid-60s at 5pm. We had a few hours of sunshine today as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Our local elk herd was out along Hwy 202 coming into North Bend... They're getting ready to migrate to Santa! Gotta eat up. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 The height anomalies being depicted by the GFS during week two are pretty insane and it has been consistent. It's showing some big time below temps also with a number of highs in the 40s. Good stuff! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: It's pretty remarkable when you look at the list of years that had the coldest first half of October since 1945. I posted them last night and all had significant cold and snow except for 1973, and even that winter was cool with some snow. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 Would really love to se the 18z run go out to h450, that open wave cresting off the coast was about to make a beeline for the WA/OR coast. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 It turns out the early January 1974 cold snap was sharper than I realized. Landsburg had 9 consecutive lows of 20 or below with highs in the 30s on that one. And that was probably the weakest winter of the group for seasons that had a cold first half of October, unless you count 2019 which didn't quite meet the 52.0 average threshold that I used. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 Another interesting thing about the GFS is it continues the theme of a west based -NAO which is often a good thing for us. In fact that feature gets really strong on the 18z. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 All these good things just keep tilting in our favor. This is going to be a top tier magical winter. I feel it guys and gals and.....yeah..... I feel it. Lock it in. 70 degrees here today. wowies! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 62/45 today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 76/24! 3 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 71/41 for a +2F departure. Not really that impressive a month. Seasonably cool but not even in the top 25 for October. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: 76/24! Roller-coaster range 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 3 hours ago, T-Town said: Perfect is the enemy of good. Utopia is the enemy of reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 https://komonews.com/news/local/first-half-of-october-was-the-coldest-in-31-years December. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 My grass is still growing! What a lovely day it turned into, cleared a bit in the afternoon but stayed windy all day…It was a warm wind! 64/50 6 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 3 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, MossMan said: My grass is still growing! What a lovely day it turned into, cleared a bit in the afternoon but stayed windy all day…It was a warm wind! 64/50 Halloween colors 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 36 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Need a pipeline to ship all that water directly to Joshua in Lake Oswego! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Need a pipeline to ship all the water to directly to Joshua in Lake Oswego! Haha. Good idea. Or, it could just freakin’ rain here. I have visited the Columbia River Gorge after some heavy rainfall and it’s just awesome. Same with Silver Falls State Park. I would love to see Snoqualmie Falls in its full splendor. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 11 hours ago, snow_wizard said: I guess we will find out. All I know is like where we're at, except I wish we were looking at positive QBO this winter. At this point the minus QBO is still only possible. It hasn't gotten to the 50mb level yet, and the higher levels are already flipping. 2007-08 was a profoundly minus QBO. I recall Phil mentioned a while back, but correct me if I'm wrong, that the QBO at 50mb has more of an impact on the weather patterns than the 30mb level. Is that right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 00z GFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall totals It keeps going… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: It keeps going… Yeah a very prolonged period of troughing and a definite wind storm pattern. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 Two lows track inland well south of Seattle on this GFS run. Incredible jet suppression for this early. The height anomalies are insane for much of the run as well. Kind of makes you wonder where winter may go. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Yeah a very prolonged period of troughing and a definite wind storm pattern. Pretty amazing stuff for this early. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 40 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall totals The GEM is remarkably similar to the GFS. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 1 hour ago, AbbyJr said: I recall Phil mentioned a while back, but correct me if I'm wrong, that the QBO at 50mb has more of an impact on the weather patterns than the 30mb level. Is that right? I'm guessing it does. 30mb is very high and the air extremely thin up there. I think 50mb and even 70mb are more important. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Two lows track inland well south of Seattle on this GFS run. Incredible jet suppression for this early. The height anomalies are insane for much of the run as well. Kind of makes you wonder where winter may go. This is going to be a winter for the ages, the winter of all winters, one for the record books, the one we've waited for our entire lives! C'MON!!!! 00z ECMWF in 17 minutes 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said: The GEM is remarkably similar to the GFS. Uncanny how similar they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: This is going to be a winter for the ages, the winter of all winters, one for the record books, the one we've waited for our entire lives! C'MON!!!! 00z ECMWF in 17 minutes Shhhh 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Shhhh The Great White Winter. We'll have to tunnel outside of our door. Snowmobiles will be the only form of transportation for a solid 35-40 days. (Too much?) 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 Let’s go Brandon. 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 It's pretty remarkable that no rain is shown for this area until Tuesday night now. What was originally supposed to be a wet Sunday or Sunday night just vanished. Still a sharp cold front though temperature wise. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: It's pretty remarkable that no rain is shown for this area until Tuesday night now. What was originally supposed to be a wet Sunday or Sunday night just vanished. Still a sharp cold front though temperature wise. Yeah the best dynamics and jet support has trended south, south, south focusing on southern OR and northern CA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 Teleconnection wise this pattern coming up is really an oddball. We will be in an extremely suppressed jet / deep trough and yet the PNA and EPO will both be either neutral of positive. As far as I can tell the main driver is going to be that crazy west based -NAO. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 45 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Let’s go Brandon. So I see you keep update on tik tok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 48 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Yeah the best dynamics and jet support has trended south, south, south focusing on southern OR and northern CA. They need it more than we do. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: They need it more than we do. Yup. That they do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: They need it more than we do. But do they need it more than Joshua in Portland? According to his posts, it’s pretty much a desert down there now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 17, 2021 Report Share Posted October 17, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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