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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Randy lives in a rural location. Go figure. 

What is different is the more common occurrence of widespread burning down there... that does not happen in Randy's area either.    Anyone can have a bad neighbor who is burn happy.   😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I know just find it funny when it’s November and he chimes in “it’s 47 and smoky here”. 

I'm normally a smoky part of the northwest and it's never smoky this late! 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Sunrise was pretty darn good this morning. 

7F66D311-24E3-42D9-86AB-D8A443331C08.png

7589F3B7-BA96-4536-A27B-5FF9139CBD08.png

If only it lasted longer. I finally got a decent one but it was a couple minutes long.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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🙀

KBHX_loop.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What is different is the more common occurrence of widespread burning down there... that does not happen in Randy's area either.    Anyone can have a bad neighbor who is burn happy.   😃

Grass fields yes. The amount to smoke around yesterday is uncommon. Usually they don’t allow backyard burning on a day that is somewhat inversiony. But the amount of pearl clutching about it from people on here was amusing.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like the 12z GFS is going for a cold Halloween.  A bit more amplification being shown over the GOA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the 12z GFS is going for a cold Halloween.  A bit more amplification being shown over the GOA.

Slightly drier run than the insanely wet 06z. Should be mostly dry through Thursday with just some light rain tonight and Wednesday morning.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What is different is the more common occurrence of widespread burning down there... that does not happen in Randy's area either.    Anyone can have a bad neighbor who is burn happy.   😃

 

244997150_2044940372328813_7018645518016978046_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I'm certainly liking all of the blocking being shown on this run.  Let's hope that sets the tone for the winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What is different is the more common occurrence of widespread burning down there... that does not happen in Randy's area either.    Anyone can have a bad neighbor who is burn happy.   😃

Funny story, Oregon is a bigger state and has fewer people...

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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I'm thinking mostly Cascade snow, but Euro has been showing snow at KLMT last few runs. 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Really interesting to look at the CPC analogs.  Two years consistently at the top of the list are 2007 and 1984.  Both cold ENSO / -QBO winters with incredibly different outcomes.  2007 had raging zonal flow and 1984 one of the blockiest on record.  Another one I've considered a top analog is 1970 (and it is also showing up consistently as an analog).  An average of those three winters would give us a great outcome IMO.

In one sense 1984 is the best match being it was a second year Nina and the other two were first year.  Interestingly all were near solar minimum.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Funny story, Oregon is a bigger state and has fewer people...

And our east side counties are all entirely rural. You can live in Eastern WA and live in a Metropolitan City. lol

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Anyone know what happened to that user who used to post here, username was Richard? He would make posts that were incredibly difficult (at least for me) to decode and understand. Asking simply because most of what I remember him saying actually came to fruition. 

Here's to a frosty Halloween 🍻

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11 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

And our east side counties are all entirely rural. You can live in Eastern WA and live in a Metropolitan City. lol

That's kind of an exaggeration.  Much of Eastern WA is very rural.  WA also has some of the most remote locations in the lower 48 states on the Olympic Pen and the North Cascades.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

Anyone know what happened to that user who used to post here, username was Richard? He would make posts that were incredibly difficult (at least for me) to decode and understand. Asking simply because most of what I remember him saying actually came to fruition. 

Here's to a frosty Halloween 🍻

Very good question.  He just kind of disappeared.  The guy was obviously some kind of a genius and he refused to use models.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That's kind of an exaggeration.  Much of Eastern WA is very rural.  WA also has some of the most remote locations in the lower 48 states on the Olympic Pen and the North Cascades.

Yeah probably some exaggeration. Without Spokane eastern Washington's population barely breaks 200k. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very good question.  He just kind of disappeared.  The guy was obviously some kind of a genius and he refused to use models.

Genius?   No.  😀

His area was burned in the Paradise fire.   Unrelated... someone posted an article that he was missing but was found and he was OK.

https://www.actionnewsnow.com/content/news/Paradise-Police-looking-for-missing-69-year-old-569358961.html

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I guess if you pressed me I would go with the three years I was just talking about as analogs.  1970, 1984, and 2007.  Of those years December ends up with the strongest signal to be the cold month this winter.  Very interesting how they had many similarities, but also some notable differences in detail.  1970-71 is probably an average of the other two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Genius?   No.  😀

His area was burned in the Paradise fire and he was missing for awhile but someone posted an article that was found and he was OK.

Either that or he tried to make us think he was a genius with all of the gobble-de-goook.  Good to hear is ok.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Either that or he tried to make us think he was a genius with all of the gobble-de-****.  Good to hear is ok.

I updated my post.   He was not missing due to the fire.   That was unrelated.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really interesting to look at the CPC analogs.  Two years consistently at the top of the list are 2007 and 1984.  Both cold ENSO / -QBO winters with incredibly different outcomes.  2007 had raging zonal flow and 1984 one of the blockiest on record.  Another one I've considered a top analog is 1970 (and it is also showing up consistently as an analog).  An average of those three winters would give us a great outcome IMO.

In one sense 1984 is the best match being it was a second year Nina and the other two were first year.  Interestingly all were near solar minimum.

It’s almost like weather has a TEENCY bit of a random component to it.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

It’s almost like weather has a TEENCY bit of a random component to it.

The tail end of a Super Nino mega blob produced a record snowiest December at Crater Lake NP.

Definitely not random. 🌋

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Started raining about a half hour ago and currently 53 degrees. .02” so far. 
Was dry for my early Sunday morning grocery shopping/gas fill up/stop by the lake house. Our main road is showing some color now. 

798C7A9C-1F19-49DB-BDAC-233185EAD008.jpeg

74E6E2B2-E243-435A-BDE2-E7FE3B589A17.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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25 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

Anyone know what happened to that user who used to post here, username was Richard? He would make posts that were incredibly difficult (at least for me) to decode and understand. Asking simply because most of what I remember him saying actually came to fruition. 

Here's to a frosty Halloween 🍻

I remember Richard. He was an incredible forecaster, but you had to decode his prose.

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Started raining about a half hour ago and currently 53 degrees. .02” so far. 
Was dry for my early Sunday morning grocery shopping/gas fill up/stop by the lake house. Our main road is showing some color now. 

798C7A9C-1F19-49DB-BDAC-233185EAD008.jpeg

74E6E2B2-E243-435A-BDE2-E7FE3B589A17.jpeg

The overcast is so easy on the eyes! 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's kind of an exaggeration.  Much of Eastern WA is very rural.  WA also has some of the most remote locations in the lower 48 states on the Olympic Pen and the North Cascades.

Can vouch for that. My county has 2k residents  (fewest in WA) and actually saw an increase in the census. On the other hand Spokane and it's suburbs is still a larger area though small by Seattle standards. Tri Cities is growing fast too.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's kind of an exaggeration.  Much of Eastern WA is very rural.  WA also has some of the most remote locations in the lower 48 states on the Olympic Pen and the North Cascades.

Oregon is significantly larger in size (26,000 square miles), and has almost half the population of Washington. True story. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I don’t think most people realize how much bigger Oregon is than Washington, in terms of geographical area. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t think most people realize how much bigger Oregon is than Washington, in terms of geographical area. 

Feels like a lot of the Washington posters simply don't even pay attention to us, as if we don't even exist to them.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

I slept 15hrs last night. Need to cut back on the all nighters. 😬

The good ol 0-15-0-15 sleep pattern... you and me both brother 😅

Though something tells me we’re not going to be “cutting it back” all that much this winter ;) 🌨

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Feels like a lot of the Washington posters simply don't even pay attention to us, as if we don't even exist to them.

Lol yes that’s exactly what all of us do 😂

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Feels like a lot of the Washington posters simply don't even pay attention to us, as if we don't even exist to them.

Except that’s not entirely true. @TacomaWaWxand I mentioned the weather down there all the time, Tim also, especially this past summer with the shiitstorm hot and dry weather y’all went through.  Though we’re inclined not to since we don’t live in the area, but it is a PWN discussion. 

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