PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Could be a very interesting pattern if it happens in Dec or Jan.  We would undoubtedly be talking lower heights, lower 850s, and even more suppression.  

Would sure be nice to spread the wealth around like 16-17.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Model bleeding lol

[Meatyorologist]

25 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Would sure be nice to spread the wealth around like 16-17.

Still have ptsd from feb 2017

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Still have ptsd from feb 2017

I know that feeling from other years. Hurts when all the action is just to the north, but I look at pictures from events like 2-25-19 and it helps.

[Meatyorologist]

GEFS has deep troughing through the end of the month, and then, as if on cue, flips on a dime to ridging as the calendar transitions to the 11th month. It feels so scripted; the cold Niña October, the weakened SPV, the warm November... Something's brewing...

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I know that feeling from other years. Hurts when all the action is just to the north, but I look at pictures from events like 2-25-19 and it helps.

Wasn't just to the north that day... I missed it to the north, south, east, west, hell even elevation!! Donut hole'd w/ 1.5" while everywhere else got 4-6"+. Mine all melted by noon. Foothills were below freezing all day. Had to take a break from social media that day bc of all the pictures flooding in from everywhere. And then there was the day that PDX got that surprise 14" wallop, while we were dry up here... in the midst of an 8 year streak w/o subfreezing highs or sig. snow

i feel you man, you'll get your stuff soon, i got a feeling

[snow_wizard]

36 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

That's Index in the center, looking from Heybrook Lookout. This is down the street.

The color in the other pic is truly exceptional for native trees in this region.  It almost looked like something from the Eastern US.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wasn't just to the north that day... I missed it to the north, south, east, west, hell even elevation!! Donut hole'd w/ 1.5" while everywhere else got 4-6"+. Mine all melted by noon. Foothills were below freezing all day. Had to take a break from social media that day bc of all the pictures flooding in from everywhere. And then there was the day that PDX got that surprise 14" wallop, while we were dry up here... in the midst of an 8 year streak w/o subfreezing highs or sig. snow

i feel you man, you'll get your stuff soon, i got a feeling

I scored in Feb 2017, but we got nearly zilch in January.  January was quite chilly though.

BTW...I'm sure you had sub freezing highs in Dec 2013 and Feb 2014.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We got a night shift going?

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We got a night shift going?

Gotta be up in 4 hours for work

[Meatyorologist]

NWS Reno's got an *actual* night shift going!

[Phil]

56 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GEFS has deep troughing through the end of the month, and then, as if on cue, flips on a dime to ridging as the calendar transitions to the 11th month. It feels so scripted; the cold Niña October, the weakened SPV, the warm November... Something's brewing...

Pattern next month could be the literal inverse of the present pattern. Which, even though it’s warmish on paper, a GOA/western ridge actually opens the door to legitimate continental air which can be tapped should the ridge retrograde.

The *present* pattern would produce mediocre results in D/J/F. All pacific influence, No continental anywhere in North America right now.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pattern next month could be the literal inverse of the present pattern. Which, even though it’s warmish on paper, a GOA/western ridge actually opens the door to legitimate continental air which can be tapped should the ridge retrograde.

The *present* pattern would produce mediocre results in D/J/F. All pacific influence, No continental anywhere in North America right now.

I know. This would be 40/30 type weather in Dec/Jan. Just excited that the Niña storm train/warm Nov climo is working properly. Bodes well for later on. This pattern was not present last year, which was also a Niña

[smerfylicious]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The color in the other pic is truly exceptional for native trees in this region.  It almost looked like something from the Eastern US.

Yup. The higher in elevation you get over here, the better colors. The pic from Heybrook has a good 800 feet on the one down the street from me.

[crf450ish]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

GEFS has deep troughing through the end of the month, and then, as if on cue, flips on a dime to ridging as the calendar transitions to the 11th month. It feels so scripted; the cold Niña October, the weakened SPV, the warm November... Something's brewing...

Yeah, something is brewing alright, a good model riding season...all the way through March 

[RentonHill]

6 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Model bleeding lol

Welcome to the weatherbell club fam…

 

[RentonHill]

Candygram time! Tried to get something for everyone

[RentonHill]

[crf450ish]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This October does have something of a 1990 feel.

But what if we don't remember what October 1990 felt like?

[crf450ish]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Candygram time! Tried to get something for everyone

can we get one for Fairbanks, AK?

[RentonHill]

Precip totals using 00z EPS. One of these is not like the others

[LowerGarfield]

A cool 42F at my morning read outside.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 here too. 0.16” of rain overnight. Pretty weak system. 

[TT-SEA]

48 here... no rain overnight other than a few sprinkles yesterday evening. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

45 this morning, a very soggy weekend here with 1.63" since Friday, with most of that falling Friday and yesterday.  The winds were pretty impressive on Saturday, I saw there was a SCA out on the water, but I am kinda surprised we didn't get a wind advisory. 

Headed out to Kayla's neck of the woods this weekend to catch one last band performance for my son, and the weather looks pretty spectacular.  Part of me wishes we could get a nice winter storm like they had last week, but the part of me that will be sitting on aluminum bleachers for several hours is very glad that it will be dry and in the upper 50's to low 60's, although the Bobcats are looking really good this year so there may not be a lot of sitting!

[Timmy Supercell]

The hills a bit above my location are covered in snow. 

[Kayla]

30 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

45 this morning, a very soggy weekend here with 1.63" since Friday, with most of that falling Friday and yesterday.  The winds were pretty impressive on Saturday, I saw there was a SCA out on the water, but I am kinda surprised we didn't get a wind advisory. 

Headed out to Kayla's neck of the woods this weekend to catch one last band performance for my son, and the weather looks pretty spectacular.  Part of me wishes we could get a nice winter storm like they had last week, but the part of me that will be sitting on aluminum bleachers for several hours is very glad that it will be dry and in the upper 50's to low 60's, although the Bobcats are looking really good this year so there may not be a lot of sitting!

Go Bobcats! It does indeed look pretty nice all week into at least early in the weekend. We could really use the moisture though and it looks like we'll only see 0.5-1.0" of precip over the next two weeks while the west coast gets drenched. We're still experiencing exceptional drought conditions even after the big storm last week so I would love to see the mean trough position shift slightly further inland but that doesn't look to be the case.

Happy to see what looks to be a pretty big drought buster for NorCal though.

[AlTahoe]

Picked up 3" of snow this morning and a bear apparently beat me to the office front door!

[TT-SEA]

I am sure it will change again... but I really like the 12Z GFS for the weekend with the rain focused where its needed the most.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ENSO 3.4 region clocks in at -0.8C this week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am sure it will change again... but I really like the 12Z GFS for the weekend with the rain focused where its needed the most.

 

Classic Tim stealth troll post. GFS continues to get drier and drier for Oregon. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Classic Tim stealth troll post. GFS continues to get drier and drier for Oregon. 

Its not stealth... I would prefer the rain not be focused on WA and BC where its not really needed right now.     Oregon also gets more rain than WA in BC in that type of pattern.    That is just one frame.    You assume I am constantly thinking about just Oregon... but I am not.   

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

NWS Reno's got an *actual* night shift going!

I am at South Lake Tahoe, probably 800 feet or more above the town, and we got several inches of snow overnight 

Edited October 18, 2021 by Brian_in_Leavenworth
Added pic

[TT-SEA]

This would be really nice... much wetter anomalies in Oregon and CA.     I am sure people in drenched SW BC would agree.  

[Timmy Supercell]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Classic Tim stealth troll post. GFS continues to get drier and drier for Oregon. 

Gotta move on over to whiskey country for rain. 

[ShawniganLake]

Dropped to 38F this morning. I could go for some dry weather.   Took the kids to the pumpkin patch yesterday. They had to cancel the hay rides this year as it was too muddy. 

[AlTahoe]

21 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I am at South Lake Tahoe, probably 800 feet or more above the town, and we got several inches of snow overnight 

Nice. Upper Kingsbury. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Morning GFS is pretty dull.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This would be really nice... much wetter anomalies in Oregon and CA.     I am sure people in drenched SW BC would agree.  

That’s a godsend for CA. They need as much STJ as they can get in case we move to +ENSO/+QBO in 2022..which would be an unmitigated disaster for the West.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

TWL is right. GFS is a snoozer. Oh well, just October, very climo.