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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Cancel the HWW?

Do it. NOW

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ummmm... That's a nice hurricane off the coast...

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_25.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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FWIW, don’t expect this “PV disruption” to last. It’s way too early for mature seasonal dynamics to take hold. 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

For the CONUS, generally speaking, I agree with this take:

 

That winter was great for Cascade snowpack and here in the foothills we had near record breaking snow fall. Had a few things broken differently it could have been good in the lowlands, still was a pretty chilly January in the Willamette Valley at least. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Back to mostly sunny sky again.

It feels like we have 365 sun days a year in Klamath Falls now. Enufff. 😝

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That winter was great for Cascade snowpack and here in the foothills we had near record breaking snow fall. Had a few things broken differently it could have been good in the lowlands, still was a pretty chilly January in the Willamette Valley at least. 

Even an average January would be a major win at this point.

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The QPF rug pulling has been initiated on the Euro (essentially cut in half in one run in the 200 hour timeframe), GFS, and ICON. Wednesday was already added to the bust list a couple of days ago. Sunday busted as expected.

We're in the goldilocks zone for those of you that don't love rain. Vancouver Island got pummeled a few days ago. Now, Northern California gets their turn. When we need the rain to shift south, it shifts north. When we need it to shift north, it shifts south.

Eventually, we have to be in the bullseye, right? Hopefully it will be when we have offshore flow in place and -9C 850 mb temps. 

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EURO has a very very fast moving and powerful system rake the coast next week-- much more of a windstorm track than what the GFS shows. Models are obviously waffling around but its nice to see some agreement in some sort of strong jet/low pressure combo.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Any word on the EURO? Maps, etc...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any word on the EURO? Maps, etc...

"The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe and is based at Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, and Bologna, Italy, and Bonn, Germany."

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

967mb low into central Vancouver island on Sunday night. Impactful, possibly devastating windstorm for Washington and SW BC

 

 

FAB761A3-5E8B-4D0E-BC35-A0BA0E7D2952.png

Would be quite impactful N. California up as that low passes very close to the coast with the tightest gradient. Fast moving system as well.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Glad the electrician is coming back on Wednesday to finish up the switch for the generator. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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51 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

967mb low into central Vancouver island on Sunday night. Impactful, possibly devastating windstorm for Washington and SW BC

 

 

FAB761A3-5E8B-4D0E-BC35-A0BA0E7D2952.png

yeehaw!  I'm supposed to be flying back to Bellingham Sunday night.

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Looks like we might see some 30mph gusts here on Sunday night. Pretty sure that will be the strongest wind gusts here in many years.

EC Wind Gusts.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we might see some 30mph gusts here on Sunday night. Pretty sure that will be the strongest wind gusts here in many years.

EC Wind Gusts.png

If this sort of track comes into consolidation 30 might be a tad conservative... if not quite a bit so.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

ens_image.php?geoid=135728&var=201&run=12&date=2021-10-18&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

Imagine this with January/February mean 850s. We'd be looking at feet of high ratio powder at ski resort elevation.

The upcoming pattern December-March 15th would probably produce some pretty good snow for my elevation. This time of year is something of weather purgatory for snow lovers. Active enough to be interesting, but no realistic shot at snow below 2500-3000'. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That winter was great for Cascade snowpack and here in the foothills we had near record breaking snow fall. Had a few things broken differently it could have been good in the lowlands, still was a pretty chilly January in the Willamette Valley at least. 

Jim would be nuclear level pissed, though.

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37 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

ens_image.php?geoid=135728&var=201&run=12&date=2021-10-18&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

Imagine this with January/February mean 850s. We'd be looking at feet of high ratio powder at ski resort elevation.

Anyone below 1000ft would probably be getting lots of 33°F rain with the occasional white missile. Personally that would drive me crazy.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Anyone below 1000ft would probably be getting lots of 33°F rain with the occasional white missile. Personally that would drive me crazy.

Greatly preferable to endless 53/41 SW flow crap and 5000'+ snow levels, which is much more common nowadays.

Of course I ski a lot in the winter so I welcome cold NW flow as much as I can get it, even though not everyone here does the same and feels the same way. Although it would be very nice if we could go back to when a sub-40 high used to actually be somewhat easy to achieve in the Willamette Valley.

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Greatly preferable to endless 53/41 SW flow crap and 5000'+ snow levels, which is much more common nowadays.

Of course I ski a lot in the winter so I welcome cold NW flow as much as I can get it, even though not everyone here does the same and feels the same way. Although it would be very nice if we could go back to when a sub-40 high used to actually be somewhat easy to achieve in the Willamette Valley.

Yeah I’d probably concur if I lived there.

But locally, if I had to choose between 33° rain and 55° rain, I might choose the latter. The former would be so painful. 😂

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Gfs totals are pretty awesome too. Sacramento went 212 days without rainfall longest streak in history just ended. This would be pretty amazing down there. 

A7CB1E59-58B7-4198-9924-A70BB13648DF.jpeg

B1917D82-D472-4D70-B0CE-80A0513B1AA4.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah I’d probably concur if I lived there.

But locally, if I had to choose between 33° rain and 55° rain, I might choose the latter. The former would be too d**n painful. 😂

I especially like 63 degree rain. During the Dec 2007 coastal gale there was a day like that in Hillsboro.

Tropical! I stood outside in the rain without a jacket on and was wonderful. lol

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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59 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah I’d probably concur if I lived there.

But locally, if I had to choose between 33° rain and 55° rain, I might choose the latter. The former would be so painful. 😂

We've had just 4 days with a below 40F high in the last 2 winters combined. 55F temps are what we pretty much always have so any break from that is nice.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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All things being equal the late October period is actually looking fairly typical. Could certainly be drier, but we have definitely have had many wetter/colder late October periods. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Some of those rain totals on the euro in Northern California are pretty incredible. 

5D571332-FD45-4C37-84FC-116EE8FA4718.jpeg

3F41ED3D-7895-4960-9D8F-E1B137283D22.jpeg

They're due and this is mostly the reason why. And we think our dry streak was bad. 

edit: hadn't realized you already mentioned the Sacramento dry streak in the later post. 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Yeah I’d probably concur if I lived there.

But locally, if I had to choose between 33° rain and 55° rain, I might choose the latter. The former would be so painful. 😂

We've experienced plenty of 34-35F rainfall/lumpy rain. Like you can almost always rely on it and that's the most painful part. So close yet so far. 

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Interesting from the NAVGEM, which doesn't typically show very strong centers of pressure.

navgem_mslp_uv850_nwus_27.png

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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