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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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Same for SeaTac and Olympia. If anything it’s the Puget Sound area that’s more “due” for bendy trees than PDX, using 40mph as a threshold.

 

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0C15ECFD-64FD-4830-B999-A7921732CF5C.jpeg

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Changing the threshold to 50kts (High Wind Warning criteria) doesn’t tell us much due to lack of data points, but still hard to argue anyone is “overdue” for that kind of wind.

The return frequency @ PDX suggests one should occur sometime soon, but not enough data points to say for sure.

 

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809DADDC-E526-4FBF-AB8A-8BD0E51BD386.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Same for SeaTac and Olympia. If anything it’s the Puget Sound area that’s more “due” for bendy trees than PDX, using 40mph as a threshold.

 

694FA4D8-4620-468D-9EA3-16FC6DC9ABBB.jpeg

0C15ECFD-64FD-4830-B999-A7921732CF5C.jpeg

 

Bendy trees.  😄

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tim is gonna love this.

Should also give MossMan enough time to re-winterize his house before the hammer drops later on.

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Tim is gonna love this.

Should also give MossMan enough time to re-winterize his house before the hammer drops later on.

 

Meh... November is too late and the sun angle is too low for really nice weather.   I would have preferred a ridgy, warm October and a stormy November.    But that is not how it usually goes with a Nina.   Maybe next year!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 hours ago, iFred said:

I've gone down that rabbit hole. I am now up to 12 Wave Plus sensors around the house, sensors in the lawn, my car, and that isn't counting the home automation stuff and apple health stuff I can quantify. My life can now just be viewed as a series of grafana graphs.

Raspberry Pi's became my "addiction" thanks to Covid.  I got my first one March 2020.  It is now out in my shed running an ADSB reciever setup (ADSB for those not familiar is a signal sent by aircraft giving speed, altitude, direction etc).  My motivation for that is a free business account with the various tracking websites I supply data to (Flightaware, Radar24, etc).  I want to start logging all the entries it picks up in a DB but haven't figured that one out yet. 

I have a Pi that will run a bunch of HAM radio apps (its mostly done), one that will run my weather server, and I have one that runs my 3D Printer.  I want to get 2 more, one to act as a DNS server, and another to be a HAM Radio/Spaceweather dashboard.  It will be mounted up to a 7" touchscreen.  I'm still fumbling around a bit, I need to break down and take a class or 2 to get the basics dialed in.  I did a fair amount of programming as a hobby when I was younger and had a lot of fun with it.

 

 

On the weather side, looks like our low will be 39, and another beautiful sunrise in the making.

 

 

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9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just saying people need to notice that is one ensemble member out of 51 showing that.  It's not a model run.

Yeah, hopefully folks picked up on the Dumb and Dumber reference and took what I said as sarcasm/satire.

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Cool and 41F at the morning observation. Clear and cool but not cold.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Meh... November is too late and the sun angle is too low for really nice weather.   I would have preferred a ridgy, warm October and a stormy November.    But that is not how it usually goes with a Nina.   Maybe next year!  

We get lots of “nice” days (well, by your standards anyways) in December with an even lower sun angle. Just need the right kind of long wave pattern & well timed synoptics.

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Today’s CPC superensemble La Niña analogs 2007, 1984, 1975, 1974, 1970, 1954*.

All -QBO except 1975, but that one emulated the Niña/-QBO pattern (supressed NPAC High, +EPO).

2A0C8805-46A8-47C6-BE6E-F2752344FB69.gif

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43 here for a low this morning. Sunrise was decent again. Moon looked pretty cool this morning too but not worth a photo with this camera I got. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 hours ago, Geos said:

I never knew a 1104 hour snowfall map even existed! For any type of weather map for that matter.

I thought only the CFS did that. ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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27 this morning and a thick frost at sunrise. Some of the grass even looked like it had snowed but didn't.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12z seems really wet. Especially Oregon - SOUTH

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Is that true, though?

Plotting # of days/yr with gusts at/above 40mph @ PDX since those records began yields an interesting upward trend.

(Note: 40mph = 34.759kts).

 

FDE931A2-BE0C-4747-AB1D-6289FAD6684E.jpeg

 

It is objectively true. Big south windstorms were far more common around Portland in the 1940s-1970s period than they have been since. Your graph isn't taking wind direction into account and 40+mph easterlies are fairly routine at PDX during the cold season and of course are very different events dynamically.

The last significant south windstorm around the Portland area was probably 4/7/2017. The Tacoma to Vancouver, BC corridor has seen several since then. The last top tier south wind event for the Portland area was probably 12/12/1995 or perhaps 12/11/2014 if we're being generous. 

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

It is objectively true. Big south windstorms were far more common around Portland in the 1940s-1970s period than they have been since. Your graph isn't taking wind direction into account and 40+mph easterlies are fairly routine at PDX during the cold season and of course are very different events dynamically.

The last significant south windstorm around the Portland area was probably 4/7/2017. The Tacoma to Vancouver, BC corridor has seen several since then. The last top tier south wind event for the Portland area was probably 12/12/1995 or perhaps 12/11/2014 if we're being generous. 

The event in December 2006 in the Central Willamette Valley was fairly intense, definitely more intense than 12/11/14. There was a very significant localized wind event in January 2021 that produced an incredible amount of damage in a small area. But overall yeah, 1995 was the last really big one regionally. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The event in December 2006 in the Central Willamette Valley was fairly intense, definitely more intense than 12/11/14. There was a very significant localized wind event in January 2021 that produced an incredible amount of damage in a small area. But overall yeah, 1995 was the last really big one regionally. 

December 2006 was damaging here too, but about at on the same level as January 2000 and December 2014. Peak gusts probably mostly in the 60-65mph range.

 

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The GEM is funny. 

gem_apcpn_nwus_40.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We haven't had a significant windstorm here since the south valley surprise in early 2002. Pretty sure it was pretty pedestrian in whatever event happened in Dec 2006.

I would advise anyone who is a weather enthusiast to not move to this location as it continues to get more boring.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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12 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fall color is peaking up here this week. Just gorgeous. 

Been hanging out in the Fraser Canyon of BC for the past few days and the fall color is spectacular here. Friend whose place I am staying at says it is the best in 20 years.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Finally getting a few leaves turning here.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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56 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I've convinced the husband to let me spend some money on a better weather station. I like the one I have, but I want to save the data since my schedule is all over the place. I'm just lost as to what is a great one and what are duds.

Davis pro2 and vantage pro2 line is nice. Very convenient to be able to separate sensors for proper positioning. Anemometer up high with temperature sensors closer to ground.  They can get spendy if you go for all the options and the rain gauge accuracy can be a bit hit and miss. You could get a basic one to start and add sensors as you want.  I’ve had mine for 9 years (wireless) and only replaced the battery once. 

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58 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I've convinced the husband to let me spend some money on a better weather station. I like the one I have, but I want to save the data since my schedule is all over the place. I'm just lost as to what is a great one and what are duds.

Depending on how much more $$ you have, it seems Davis is the way to go, if you can't spend quite *that* much money, I have been very happy with my ambient weather station (WS-2900).  It log data onto a memory card, and the ambient weather site logs the data as well, and is pretty easy to download if you want to play with it in the spreadsheet program if your choice.

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30 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Davis pro2 and vantage pro2 line is nice. Very convenient to be able to separate sensors for proper positioning. Anemometer up high with temperature sensors closer to ground.  They can get spendy if you go for all the options and the rain gauge accuracy can be a bit hit and miss. You could get a basic one to start and add sensors as you want.  I’ve had mine for 9 years (wireless) and only replaced the battery once. 

 

28 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Depending on how much more $$ you have, it seems Davis is the way to go, if you can't spend quite *that* much money, I have been very happy with my ambient weather station (WS-2900).  It log data onto a memory card, and the ambient weather site logs the data as well, and is pretty easy to download if you want to play with it in the spreadsheet program if your choice.

I found one I like but $1,800 might be a bit much. I'll look into those instead.

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Someone mentioned an upgrade on the ECMWF for precipitation.    I am starting to think it might have a wet bias now.   At least in western WA and OR.    Yesterday morning it showed rain all day here and also along the WA coast and down in western OR.   In reality... there was about 10 minutes of light drizzle here and it was partly to mostly sunny along the WA coast.    I don't think it rained much down south yesterday either.    I guess time will tell... but I am getting that sense right now.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Someone mentioned an upgrade on the ECMWF for precipitation.    I am starting to think it might have a wet bias now.   At least in western WA and OR.    Yesterday morning it showed rain all day here and also along the WA coast and down in western OR.   In reality... there was about 10 minutes of light drizzle here and it was partly to mostly sunny along the WA coast.    I don't think it rained much down south yesterday either.    I guess time will tell... but I am getting that sense right now.

We had about 0.1" of rain yesterday, all of it in the morning. How much was it showing? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had about 0.1" of rain yesterday, all of it in the morning. How much was it showing? 

About .15 - .25 in your area.

I have seen it do that before on marine layer days... maybe its not different.    We will be able gauge it better over the next week.

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