PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

About .15 - .25 in your area.

I have seen it do that before on marine layer days... maybe its not different.    We will be able gauge it better over the next week.

I've found it generally overstates snow amounts for our area. Probably because its basing it on a 10:1 snow:water ratio when it is usually more like 7:1. 

[The Blob]

Its flashing the rain,, think we're going to get a lot ago?

[Timmy Supercell]

[Timmy Supercell]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've found it generally overstates snow amounts for our area. Probably because its basing it on a 10:1 snow:water ratio when it is usually more like 7:1. 

Jan 2017 was like 15:1 or more. KLMT observations didn't pick up an impressive amount of precip in that one. But yeah in March its 6-7:1.

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Gonna end up a wet month it looks like. Probably close to 6” of rain here which would be the wetter than the last 3 Octobers. 

Looks like we might make a run at the wettest Oct ever which was Oct 2016. Also if the cold air gets here in time we could break the record for snowiest Oct as well which was 1956

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, The Blob said:

 

I found one I like but $1,800 might be a bit much. I'll look into those instead.

I had an acurite station that was horribly susceptible to radiant heat from direct sunlight or from the roof 3 feet below it.  It had a built in circulation fan to mitigate it, and from what I could tell, it was working, however in the summer it could be 10-20 degrees warmer than other stations in the area.

When I got my Ambient Weather station, I also got a remote temp sensor and placed it in a few different shaded areas around my property.  The main sensor and remote sensor were never more than about 2-4 degrees apart (I did this during the summer), which is a margin of error I can live with.  The sensor suite is mounted in the exact same location as my old Acurite station...

 

For the Davis, from what I've seen, you have your display and sensors, but then I believe you have to pony up a decent chunk of change to get something to connect it to a computer/the internet.  I haven't looked at them in a while, so maybe that has changed, but its worth looking into.

 

My wife's Aunt and Uncle (they are cattle ranchers) have a Davis setup, and she asked for my help to get them set up with data logging so they could track temps/rainfall against hay yields and the health of the herd (weight/numbers etc).  It was a few hundred bucks to get them connected, and they decided they didn't want the data *that* bad.  A neighnor down the road has a station on wunderground, and I showed them how to access and log the data.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Looks like we might make a run at the wettest Oct ever which was Oct 2016. Also if the cold air gets here in time we could break the record for snowiest Oct as well which was 1956

Good lord let's use those analogs!

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, The Blob said:

I've convinced the husband to let me spend some money on a better weather station. I like the one I have, but I want to save the data since my schedule is all over the place. I'm just lost as to what is a great one and what are duds.

Love my Vantage pro2 with “The weatherlink live” that transfers the data to wundergound.  Had the data logger that transferred data but it kept going out on me.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

In all seriousness I feel like there's an elevated chance of a lot of goodies being spread across the region at some point during the coming months.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

 

It is objectively true. Big south windstorms were far more common around Portland in the 1940s-1970s period than they have been since. Your graph isn't taking wind direction into account and 40+mph easterlies are fairly routine at PDX during the cold season and of course are very different events dynamically.

The last significant south windstorm around the Portland area was probably 4/7/2017. The Tacoma to Vancouver, BC corridor has seen several since then. The last top tier south wind event for the Portland area was probably 12/12/1995 or perhaps 12/11/2014 if we're being generous. 

There’s an option to filter for wind direction or use a wind rose. I’ll mess around with it later.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/

Though if the climo latitude of the jet/storm track has shifted farther north, that might reduce the frequency at which OR sees strong southerly wind events. So “due” might not be the correct adjective to use.

[Cloud]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Bendy trees.  

I took a picture of this at the beginning of the month. I shared it on the forums. Would totally expect it to collapse under a major windstorm. 
 

Bendy trees

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

There’s an option to filter for wind direction or use a wind rose. I’ll mess around with it later.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/

Though if the climo latitude of the jet/storm track has shifted farther north, that might reduce the frequency at which OR sees strong southerly wind events. So “due” might not be the correct adjective to use.

Speaking of wind roses from top to bottom: Seattle, Olympia, Yakima, and Spokane

[Timmy Supercell]

[Requiem]

Downer of a GFS run-- hope that AR shifts south again.

[RentonHill]

32 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Downer of a GFS run-- hope that AR shifts south again.

GEFS didnt change too much. 

[Geos]

Still looking wet starting tonight. In Kirkland where it is mostly cloudy and 62°.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, snow drift said:

Speaking of wind roses from top to bottom: Seattle, Olympia, Yakima, and Spokane

Great graphic

[Phil]

2 hours ago, snow drift said:

Speaking of wind roses from top to bottom: Seattle, Olympia, Yakima, and Spokane

Portland and Bellingham have interesting wind roses. Seattle is at least somewhat axisymmetric. 

[Phil]

Gave DCA a shot. Looks about right. Northwesterly dominates winter, Southerly dominates summer.

[Anti Marine Layer]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Gave DCA a shot. Looks about right. Northwesterly dominates winter, Southerly dominates summer.

What does that mean for the upcoming winter season?

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS didnt change too much. 

Looking very wet. 

[Timmy Supercell]

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Looks like things will be soggy for a while.

[TacomaWaWx]

57/43 today. Some trees in my neighborhood looking decent. 

[Front Ranger]

I think the drought is over.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

I think the drought is over.

This is really going to help the west coast out. Going into early November… after really significant rainfall coming the final 1/3 of October down into California by the time the peak wet season starts id definitely say so too. 

[The Swamp]

It's looking like it's going to be extremely wet.  More than I would expect for a La Nina.  The flip side will probably be three weeks of cold inversion fog.

Should eventually end up drier than normal but wowies! Dats some serious rain on the way for the next week to 10 days.

[Meatyorologist]

So happy to see Cali getting some rain. Oregon will get its fair share, too.

As bad as the Oregon drought has been, the NorCal drought is on another level. These are areas that are considered as part of the same climate region as Seattle being subject to weather more akin to areas in the lee of the Sierras for upwards of a year and a half.

[TacomaWaWx]

Will be interesting to see if we can manage 3 consecutive wetter than normal months this fall. Getting 2 in a row is pretty nice. Will probably end up with 10” of rain from mid September to the beginning of November at my location. Getting significant rain like this down into California during a nina is a good thing too considering nina usually isn’t the best for them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I think the drought is over.

It's not. One week in October will not end a long term drought. If this winter ends up like 2017-18, it will be back worse than ever next summer. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Will be interesting to see if we can manage 3 consecutive wetter than normal months this fall. Getting 2 in a row is pretty nice. Will probably end up with 10” of rain from mid September to the beginning of November at my location. Getting significant rain like this down into California during a nina is a good thing too considering nina usually isn’t the best for them.

Wasn't 2016-17 pretty good for them?

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wasn't 2016-17 pretty good for them?

Honestly can’t remember that off the top of my head. Ninas usually don’t mean lots of rainfall down there but sometimes nature does what it wants despite the background state. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Fraser Canyon colors.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Honestly can’t remember that off the top of my head. Ninas usually don’t mean lots of rainfall down there but sometimes nature does what it wants despite the background state. 

I know Shasta wasn't deprived of water that season, but areas San Fran-South can't say what their water year was like.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Honestly can’t remember that off the top of my head. Ninas usually don’t mean lots of rainfall down there but sometimes nature does what it wants despite the background state. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oroville_Dam_crisis

[Timmy Supercell]

Good winters for the PNW don't always leave CA in the dark. Didn't November 1955 flood out San Francisco and another snowy winter at my place?

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Gave DCA a shot. Looks about right. Northwesterly dominates winter, Southerly dominates summer.

NW is the least common direction in Spokane. NNE is the cold wind. SW is the Pacific wind direction.

[snow drift]

15 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Good winters for the PNW don't always leave CA in the dark. Didn't November 1955 flood out San Francisco and another snowy winter at my place?

A suppressed jet can be a moisture blessing to California.

[TacomaWaWx]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oroville_Dam_crisis

DAM SON! Lol don’t remember that happening. I’ll admit I only really pay attention to the weather within 200 miles or so of my location. I can only really recall big events off the top of my head from around the country. 

[RentonHill]

Where our rain reports from our southern Oregon folks??