PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[RentonHill]

@MossManRandy only in the yellow sorry bro

 

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Mother earth lettin us know that something is UP right now

 

 

Last eruption July 26, 2019. It has been active for the past 70 years.

[RentonHill]

fine will delete

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Last eruption July 26, 2019. It has been active for the past 70 years.

 

[RentonHill]

@Joshua Lake Oswego EPS has PDX rain totals at 6+ for 15 days. I will do $20 at 5:1 for you that they hit 50% of that total (lets say 3 inches). by day 10. Thoughts?

[Phil]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's not. One week in October will not end a long term drought. If this winter ends up like 2017-18, it will be back worse than ever next summer. 

If we can stay in -ENSO regime next spring/summer with oncoming +QBO, we could actually have a legit throwback to the 2010-12 summers.

If we flip to El Niño…hello 2002/03.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

fine will delete

 

Why? Lol. You're good.

00z ECMWF in 4 minutes

[TT-SEA]

Warm and breezy here... 62.

[umadbro]

What does Jesse think about the incoming AR’s?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

What does Jesse think about the incoming AR’s?

Yeah. About that....

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

What does Jesse think about the incoming AR’s?

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, umadbro said:

What does Jesse think about the incoming AR’s?

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Rattlesnake Lake in North Bend, with Rattlesnake Ledge (THE busiest hike in the NW) behind it. I’ve been fishing there on my kayak, no motors allowed. Kayaking is my favorite way to see the lake, if you paddle to the opposite side, you can feel alone out there on a busy day.

 Lake is low currently despite the September rains because the lake level is primarily controlled by the watershed. Now is a great time to see remnants of Moncton, the town at the bottom of the lake that was accidentally flooded in the early 1900s.

Spotted a heron on the shore there today. In past summers, I have seen otters playing in the water and sunbathing on the stumps.

 

Those OG stumps are so awesome

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Rattlesnake Lake in North Bend, with Rattlesnake Ledge (THE busiest hike in the NW) behind it. I’ve been fishing there on my kayak, no motors allowed. Kayaking is my favorite way to see the lake, if you paddle to the opposite side, you can feel alone out there on a busy day.

 Lake is low currently despite the September rains because the lake level is primarily controlled by the watershed. Now is a great time to see remnants of Moncton, the town at the bottom of the lake that was accidentally flooded in the early 1900s.

Spotted a heron on the shore there today. In past summers, I have seen otters playing in the water and sunbathing on the stumps.

 

That looks like a neat place. I just checked it on Google maps as well. What kind of trout?

[The Blob]

2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

East wind has become quite breezy east of I-205 in the Portland area with modest gradients currently. I just had the first "gust" of the Fall season hit my east facing front room window. This is in response to the approaching strong front. We're now moving closer to east wind season! 'Tis the Season! C'MON!!!!

I can see the 205 from my back yard

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

If we can stay in -ENSO regime next spring/summer with oncoming +QBO, we could actually have a legit throwback to the 2010-12 summers.

If we flip to El Niño…hello 2002/03.

2002 was a warm summer here. Was a pretty bad wildfire season. There was a mega fire in SW Oregon. It was followed by probably the 2nd mildest winter of my lifetime here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I can see the 205 from my back yard

Sometimes on a clear night I can see Russia, or I thought I did, but it is actually the distant glow of the PDX metro area. 

[Kolk1604]

I feel like there would be more activity with the active weather ahead. 

00z NWS Blend of Models total precip

 

[RentonHill]

WOW Euro

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2002 was a warm summer here. Was a pretty bad wildfire season. There was a mega fire in SW Oregon. It was followed by probably the 2nd mildest winter of my lifetime here. 

El Niño/+QBO under increasing solar/increasing PMM tendency would probably be the mother of all blowtorch winters in this day and age.

Need to stay -ENSO next year.

[Deweydog]

Could end up being a SE Sucker for the ages.

[SouthHillFrosty]

15 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I feel like there would be more activity with the active weather ahead. 

00z NWS Blend of Models total precip

 

Looks just a little bit wet…I wonder if I can go swimming down the street in my speedo

 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks just a little bit wet…I wonder if I can go swimming down the street in my speedo

 

Sure why not. You got one of these? Saw this on twitter tonight lol

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I would say above average chances at a wind storm this weekend. Model riding could get fun Wednesday 00z to Thursday 00z somewhere in that time frame.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I would say above average chances at a wind storm this weekend. Model riding could get fun Wednesday 00z to Thursday 00z somewhere in that time frame.

Now!!!!!

[smerfylicious]

Please sir may I have some maps? I'm just a pauper

[TigerWoodsLibido]

AR Matey

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC way further south with a lot of the precip now. Cut totals in half for the metro area...

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC way further south with a lot of the precip now. Cut totals in half for the metro area...

At the very least it's an active run...

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

AR Matey

Is that a 947 Low? Closer please...

[snow_wizard]

Holy sheit those numbers on that low off the coast on the ECMWF are downright scary.  Too far out to cause any problems for the main population, but wow!

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC way further south with a lot of the precip now. Cut totals in half for the metro area...

Models right now aren't sure how to handle the baroclinic zone offshore and influx of moisture. I almost wonder if 12z runs tomorrow all don't switch to a deep low for the weekend.

6z GFS in 2 hours 43 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Holy sheit those numbers on that low off the coast on the ECMWF are downright scary.  Too far out to cause any problems for the main population, but wow!

Yep, for now. For now that is.

12z ECMWF in 9 hours 51 minutes

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Is that a 947 Low? Closer please...

No thanks.

I'm much more of a cold and snow person.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

No thanks.

I'm much more of a cold and wind person.

I'm a fan of it all! That's what I love Washington. We actually have seasons here. 

[snow_wizard]

I just can't figure out why people actually want that beast to cause millions (if not billions) of dollars worth of damage here.

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Models right now aren't sure how to handle the baroclinic zone offshore and influx of moisture. I almost wonder if 12z runs tomorrow all don't switch to a deep low for the weekend.

6z GFS in 2 hours 43 minutes

Big run to run differences, but models are definitely trending towards a very deep low. Only a question of how close it gets, though the way GFS resolves it with multiple low centers is strange for sure.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

I'm a fan of it all! That's what I love Washington. We actually have seasons here. 

BTW...I meant snow for the second element in that post.

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yep, for now. For now that is.

12z ECMWF in 9 hours 51 minutes

I like how you think Rob! As it looks now I think it could still cause problems. Looks Windy from tomorrow through next week

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I just can't figure out why people actually want that beast to cause millions (if not billions) of dollars worth of damage here.

Because interesting weather besides fire weather is fun in this boring location.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

I'm a fan of it all! That's what I love Washington. We actually have seasons here. 

That storm being shown on the ECMWF is not anywhere business as usual.  It would be devastating if it ends up too close.  It certainly does appear we will probably be looking at record low heights somewhere off the coast for this early in the season at the very least.  Obviously the atmosphere is still in a highly perturbed / abnormal state.