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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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Chilly at the end of the GFS. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

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  • Snow 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just went through each 00z EPS member. Roughly half (54%) bring a sub-990mb low somewhere between VI and OR coast at some point next week.

I noticed a clear pattern as I was working through the members: how that first low is handled in the Sunday night/Monday timeframe greatly correlates to how the second possible low is handled around Wednesday. If the member swung that low to the north, the second low followed it's footsteps. If it brought it closer to WA/OR the second low had a propensity to do the same. Probably closely related to where the general trough axis sets up next week.

So, as we work towards the time period in question, that initial storm track might give us a good idea of how the second one will go. Although ultimately only time will tell.

Headline in the Seattle Times this morning is about a "massive bomb cyclone" hitting Seattle.    Unfortunately they said its happening on Friday which does not look like much of anything at all.    Another poor attempt from local news at clickbait! 

Safe to say that when the local media starts hyping the f*ck out of storms... nothing will actually happen.  😄

 

st 10-20.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Headline in the Seattle Times this morning is about a "massive bomb cyclone" hitting Seattle.    Unfortunately they said its happening on Friday which does not look like much of anything at all.    Another poor attempt from local news for clicks! 

Safe to say... when the local media starts hyping the f*ck out of storms that nothing will actually happen.  😄

 

st 10-20.png

I hate when they do this garbage.  Really sad.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Headline in the Seattle Times this morning is about a "massive bomb cyclone" hitting Seattle.    Unfortunately they said its happening on Friday which does not look like much of anything at all.    Another poor attempt from local news at clickbait! 

Safe to say that when the local media starts hyping the f*ck out of storms... nothing will actually happen.  😄

 

st 10-20.png

Drive-by media!! They love the headlines. ⛈️🌋🙀🍿

  • Like 3

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I hate when they do this garbage.  Really sad.

We know what happens... the NWS office mentions something in technical terms way out in the future that could happen and the reporters hear just the dramatic words they want to hear and run with the story like everyone should be taking cover immediately.  

And there is so much turn-over at the newspaper that everyone has forgotten the last time they sounded the alarms as fast as possible and got burned.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We know what happens... the NWS office mentions something in technical terms way out in the future that could happen and the reporters hear just the dramatic words they want to hear and run with the story like everyone should be taking cover immediately.

Super Typhoon Freda v3.0 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Looking forward to hearing about the EURO. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

 

My most vivid wind memory as a kid was 7/15/80.    Straight line winds from a bow echo hit the Twin Cities that evening.    I remember being at a baseball game and the sky started turning dark green and I raced home on my bike as the sirens were blaring.   Usually the sirens did not mean anything and I wanted to stay upstairs and watch the storm... but my parents sensed this one was different and physically pulled me into the basement.    I remember the Twins were playing the Yankees that night in New York and the game was on TV and we were watching that to keep our minds off the storm and then the power went out.   Its cliche... but it sounded like a freight train went right over the house.    We honestly didn't know if our house would be there when we went back upstairs.    But it was... just had lots of shingles ripped off.    The neighborhood was a total mess though.    So many trees down... and trees down on houses all over the place and no way to navigate the roads.    I clearly remember standing out in the street with all of the neighbors as the setting sun was shining underneath the black clouds from the departing storm and we were taking in all the damage.   The power was out for a week and the sound of chainsaws was always in the background for the next 2 weeks.

Here is a video showing the radar loop of the storm... I always laugh at how bad the radar images were back then.   😄

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xs3IG7JK5h4

Here is a news report from Eau Claire Wisconsin which was hit by the same storm about an hour later...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeAioBsJ4Jw

I watched some youtube clips of the Iowa Dericho event from summer of 2020. It's mind blowing how long it lasted and how extreme the winds were. Was the one you experienced a quick event or long lasting? 

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4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I watched some youtube clips of the Iowa Dericho event from summer of 2020. It's mind blowing how long it lasted and how extreme the winds were. Was the one you experienced a quick event or long lasting? 

Much quicker... I think it only last 10 or 15 minutes.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We had a good ten minute cell roll through with some good gusts and moderate rain. I was on a call otherwise I would have gone outside to experience it. 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Headline in the Seattle Times this morning is about a "massive bomb cyclone" hitting Seattle.    Unfortunately they said its happening on Friday which does not look like much of anything at all.    Another poor attempt from local news at clickbait! 

Safe to say that when the local media starts hyping the f*ck out of storms... nothing will actually happen.  😄

 

st 10-20.png

Nothing like some hyperbole to boost your circulation.

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6 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Cool, cool, 

But, is the plow still attached to lawn mower?

No, but it will be for our massive snow event starting on 11/24

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 12z Euro is very good for your neck of the woods late next week.

Very good?   We don't really need a foot of rain up here... 90% of it will just run off into the ocean.  😄

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

282FAC4B-12A0-47D8-9B8B-3307D0DE495B.thumb.jpeg.c2707b633410b059634697c0572e7f35.jpeg

The rainforests of Reno and Carson City getting typical October weather

My grandpa in Copperopolis could be in for a soaking. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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OUCH

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Going down the rabbit hole on Pivotal...

500h_anom.na.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

PDX would only end up at 200% of normal precip for October if that verified.

Going to bring back a phrase from last winter. "Devastating trendz."

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

PDX would only end up at 200% of normal precip for October if that verified.

Even taking some off that map would be a very wet October for KLMT. 2016 had 2.48".

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It’s all good. I have lots of profits from storm chasing to burn through 

Locked and loaded! 🌪️🦈

tornado-21.jpg

  • Excited 1
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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Daily precip record  at SEA today is 5.02” from 2003. Yeah, ain’t touching that but holy shiet it was a wet day. 

Holy Toledo! 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Back by unpopular demand…The Daily Fuzz!! Forget all of your fancy WeatherBell subscriptions and what not…This is all you will need!! 

A15E4380-A1E2-437A-8144-5BD8B8E4A830.jpeg

I think we should adopt this moniker from now on. 

Anytime anyone posts the PNA, they should include " And now for The Daily Fuzz" before proceeding with the subsequent post/s, yes?

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