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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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VERY impressive baroclinic band on the ECMWF late in the run complete with a crazy N to S temperature gradient.  Could be a massive snow dump for the mountains on the cold side of the line.  It even shows the temps in Seattle being pretty chilly for much of the event.  Very intriguing to see something like that so early if it happens.

  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Some nice colors showing up around my place.  Some is passing its peak though like this burning bush 

B5FE5D5F-32D6-42CB-8125-A40BB74A59B3.jpeg

8B16175B-E396-4FCC-AEBC-CE8CA263BA43.jpeg

AB8C039C-1FB1-43A0-BBDB-BD13BA33954A.jpeg

CC892B1B-456B-4FB0-84FD-9C9288C2BE2E.jpeg

BBC97634-41FE-42F2-8429-1938DF1E47FD.jpeg

Some of the maples here are about the brightest yellow they can get.  On the way home from work there is one spot that has a lot of those maples, some non native trees that are absolutely on fire (reds and oranges), and a view of Mount Rainier all at the same.  I should have gotten a pic.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Perhaps I should have checked the radar...I went out to take pictures at the Grist Mill before the fall colors faded and got absolutely nailed by a storm complete with pouring rain, lightning and a falling (mainly rotted) tree. 

246238511_10225246936114079_7300238403151523960_n.jpg

244747214_10225246916353585_4142357320742679827_n.jpg

245102611_10225246916033577_4325180196740763900_n.jpg

Screenshot 2021-10-20 at 14-48-07 202110202058 gif (GIF Image, 620 × 620 pixels).png

That first one is worthy of an award.  Great pic!

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Daily precip record  at SEA today is 5.02” from 2003. Yeah, ain’t touching that but holy shiet it was a wet day. 

And we had a crazy freeze about two weeks after that.  Very dynamic autumn / early winter that year.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18z is a lot wetter than the 12z.

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  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z is a lot wetter than the 12z.

He found a few more Corona Extras. 🍻

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Great pics as always Tyler. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I absolutely adore the 18z GFS. ;)

  • Excited 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It just got nasty in a matter of minutes here.  I thought for sure there would be thunder the way the sky looked, but none so far.  Heavy rain and gusty winds.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I absolutely adore the 18z GFS. ;)

Just one trough after another and then a nice chilly shot at the end.  Looks like a significant hurricane for the Atlantic also.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

2002652035_200(8).gif.7f09e93d02e92e812bad4ca853810ec6.gif

Those racoons are pretty amazing.  Very cute!

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  • lol 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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48 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

Anybody have an opinion on this:

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1

Mostly agree with the assessment... seems like this thing is going to remain mostly offshore similar to Songda and then swipe Vancouver Island. Back then, Songda was considered a "bust" because it took a different turn and social media was lighting it up days before the storm's arrival. 

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The GFS shows a nippy Nov 4 and 5.  With widespread lows upper 20s and low 30s in there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Mostly agree with the assessment... seems like this thing is going to remain mostly offshore similar to Songda and then swipe Vancouver Island. Back then, Songda was considered a "bust" because it took a different turn and social media was lighting it up days before the storm's arrival. 

Yeah...lows that strong have a very difficult time getting really close to the WA Coast.  Normally we get nailed by a low pinwheeling around a parent low out there, and not the parent itself.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That shower dropped the temp to 54 after a high of 60.  Nice plunge.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...lows that strong have a very difficult time getting really close to the WA Coast.  Normally we get nailed by a low pinwheeling around a parent low out there, and not the parent itself.

Yeah, this one seems to be way offshore, probably just gonna be a good breeze around here. Stronger at the coast. The Sunday storm however is a different beast, that seems to be a lot closer and stronger but still remains well offshore (for now). 

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7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yeah, this one seems to be way offshore, probably just gonna be a good breeze around here. Stronger at the coast. The Sunday storm however is a different beast, that seems to be a lot closer and stronger but still remains well offshore (for now). 

Models also seem to be very different as to how they resolve that low-- with such a strong jet seems like there's lots of potential. A fair amount of GFS members put it close enough that it can pose some issues.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Nice to see the GFS and ECMWF have both gone colder again vs last night's 0z.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah my temp graph is a straight cliff as the shower rolled through. Dropped from 58 to 51 in about 10 minutes. 

image.png.319c1a974e659818309eefaa30466980.png

It's still slowly dropping here even after the shower has ended.  Can't wait to get into the real below normal temps again next week.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's still slowly dropping here even after the shower has ended.  Can't wait to get into the real below normal temps again next week.

Might be a long wait for chilly nights... rain will have to stop and that is not very likely for the next 2 weeks.

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  • Storm 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Might be a long wait for chilly nights... rain will have to stop and that is not very likely for the next 2 weeks.

Always nice to see this time of year IMO.

A washout +EPO fall here seems to beget a significantly cold and amplified midwinter period far more often than if it was the other way around.

 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Always nice to see this time of year IMO.

A washout +EPO fall here seems to beget a significantly cold and amplified midwinter period far more often than if it was the other way around.

 

Yeah... its better now than later for sure.   I just don't get the talk of a cold pattern coming soon.   Going to have to wait.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its better now than later for sure.   I just don't get the talk of a cold pattern coming soon.   Going to have to wait.  

Certainly doesn't look likely. The averages are dropping quickly so we're already approaching the point where wet onshore flow just won't yield much in the way of cold departures. 

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The ECMWF sneaks in a fairly chilly day on Saturday now with a 53/42 for McChord with an evening low.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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25 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Since I like anomalies maps. Still cooling and 7-day change. 

17906554-EC50-4779-9300-063B8BE89B34.png

74F70D42-F3BF-4C92-A48B-67BD90CADEC1.png

You can sure see the classic horseshoe signature of the -PDO too.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

60/50 today. Haven’t had any rain since this morning. 

We had a decent shower earlier that dumped the temperature to 51.  60/49 for the day so far.

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  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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