PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the 0z GFS is following the 18z in showing a minor cold snap in early November.  I would be a bit surprised, but who knows.

[snow_wizard]

One thing for sure is the 500 to 507 heights being shown off the coast in a few days is unlike anything I've seen this early.  Most winters we don't even see numbers like that so far south.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Level 5!   Unleash flooding!   

I had no idea ARs have scales? When did this happened?

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The Seattle Times was technically accurate with their headline earlier today.

"Massive bomb cyclone of rain" to hit Seattle on Friday!    The reality will be a very typical late October showery day with some sunbreaks.   

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I had no idea ARs have scales? When did this happened?

Good question...and what would the number have been in January 1862 where feet of rain fell in CA.  Seems like 5 might be the highest number on the scale, but I have my doubts it will be anything like that.

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

"Massive bomb cyclone of rain" to hit Seattle on Friday!    The reality will be a very typical late October showery day with some sunbreaks.   

Technically they are right, it is a bomb cyclone, Cliff agreed.  He is smarter than us.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

"Massive bomb cyclone of rain" to hit Seattle on Friday!    The reality will be a very typical showery day for late Ovtober. 

Yeah....as spectacular as the storm is, the position will really mute the effects here.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Technically they are right, it is a bomb cyclone, Cliff agreed.  He is smarter than us.

Sure... there is probably a bomb cyclone happening somewhere all the time.    The screaming headline was for shock value... and the comments were hilarious.   Everyone was call them out.   

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good question...and what would the number have been in January 1862 where feet of rain fell in CA.  Seems like 5 might be the highest number on the scale, but I have my doubts it will be anything like that.

Look like I found the answer... a team of researchers from California came up with the scale and it's mostly for California. Interestingly enough, how often does Cal get ARs? 

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/new-scale-characterize-strength-and-impacts-atmospheric-river-storms

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sure... there is probably a bomb cyclone happening somewhere all the time.    The screaming headline was for shock value... and the comments were hilarious.   Everyone was call them out.   

They did state that "local meteorologists said"...  so...

[snow drift]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dramatic! 

Level 5

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

They did state that "local meteorologists said"...  so...

No excuse!   I am sure the NWS did not say a "massive bomb cyclone of rain" will pound Seattle on Friday.    It makes them look bad as well.

Here is the Friday afternoon map from the latest WRF run: 

 

[Cloud]

California's "level 5" AR as shown by the integrated moisture. Pretty significant PWAT for a good day and half. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Rip to winter. Here come's spring! #daysgettinglonger

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, ..... said:

I never thought I'd see the day when Jim would say a high of 53 is a chilly day.

My god. 53 is well, 53.

52 chilly degrees here now with light showers.

 

[Cloud]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No excuse!   I am sure the NWS did not say a "massive bomb cyclone of rain" will pound Seattle on Friday.    It makes them look bad as well.

Here is the Friday afternoon map from the latest WRF run: 

 

I don't have any problems with headlines like these because mainly for us as weather enthusiasts and hobbyists we can analyze the models and come to a conclusion ourselves on certain things being shown. For most common folks however a headline like this is catchy and clickable. The NWS is in a different business in getting the correct information across, can't compare them to media outlets.

News outlets and media only care about a few things. 

1) Get the most catchy headline out there. 

2) Get as many clicks as much as possible. 

Even at the risk of making them "look bad" -- it's a business and I'm sure if you're in such business,  you'd write  catchy headlines too. 

[Phil]

Dr. Roundy’s analog pool with gobsmacking levels of amplification towards D40.

And primed to retrograde, verbatim.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

[Blizzard777]

Awesome pictures of the storm that rolled through Battle Ground. That certainly is a unique area that storms seem to funnel through! 
 

51* 

[TT-SEA]

This is freaky.   I went outside to take a pic of the moon and used the night mode... it came out like it was the middle of the day. It picked up all the real colors and everything.     The top picture is normal mode and what it actually looks like outside... the bottom pic is one minute later using night mode.  Unbelievable technology.    Everyone should try this! 

[Blizzard777]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

This is freaky.   I went outside to take a pic of the moon and used the night mode... it came out like it was the middle of the day. It picked up all the real colors and everything.     The top picture is normal mode and what it actually looks like outside... the bottom pic is one minute later using night mode.  Unbelievable technology.    Everyone should try this! 

That’s cool! 
we’re dark here in Federal way with no moonlight 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This is freaky.   I went outside to take a pic of the moon and used the night mode... it came out like it was the middle of the day. It picked up all the real colors and everything.     The top picture is normal mode and what it actually looks like outside... the bottom pic is one minute later using night mode.  Unbelievable technology.    Everyone should try this! 

You wouldn't know the bottom picture is a nighttime pic!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

You wouldn't know the bottom picture is a nighttime pic!

I took another one with the patio and it was partially shaded as if it was the sun and looked like a beautiful afternoon.   I honestly would not believe that was the middle of the night unless I took the pic.   At first I thought it was a pic from another day and somehow was showing up as the most recent pic.   Freaky.  

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dr. Roundy’s analog pool with gobsmacking levels of amplification towards D40.

And primed to retrograde, verbatim.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

I'll say!

[TT-SEA]

Live pic with 5 second exposure.   Unreal.   That is the actual color of that tree during the day but I can't really tell that with my eyes right now.  

[Requiem]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No excuse!   I am sure the NWS did not say a "massive bomb cyclone of rain" will pound Seattle on Friday.    It makes them look bad as well.

Here is the Friday afternoon map from the latest WRF run: 

 

I dislike sensationalism too, but to be fair Cliff Mass did head a few of his recent blog posts with "a superstorm of tropical origins will develop off the northwest coast" and "the bomb cyclone offshore"-- isn't too much of a stretch to say that the local met they cited was indeed Mass.

[snow_wizard]

It has actually managed to drop to 47 here.  Not terrible given the circumstances.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It has actually managed to drop to 47 here.  Not terrible given the circumstances.

We've been bouncing around anywhere between 54 and 52 since 7pm here. It still feels a bit chilly and the clouds have thickened back up. Our moon is gone. 

[Omegaraptor]

51 at CVO. 49 back home at HIO. HIO apparently reporting clear conditions. Interesting.

[jcmcgaffey]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Live pic with 5 second exposure.   Unreal.   That is the actual color of that tree during the day but I can't really tell that with my eyes right now.  

Ya I just recently noticed those abilities with my iPhone when trying to get photos of the northern lights the other week and started trying out different nighttime photos with the moon and stars it’s pretty amazing the technology. 

[GHweatherChris]

55 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No excuse!   I am sure the NWS did not say a "massive bomb cyclone of rain" will pound Seattle on Friday.    It makes them look bad as well.

Here is the Friday afternoon map from the latest WRF run: 

 

A massive bomb cyclone is happening just off our coast, they aren't wrong.  It is the catalyst for alot of rain and some breezy conditions.

[TT-SEA]

58 minutes ago, Cloud said:

California's "level 5" AR as shown by the integrated moisture. Pretty significant PWAT for a good day and half. 

The ECMWF shows the big event for CA on Sunday into Monday.    There is a significant rain event tomorrow night into Friday morning which is what is show in that loop... and then a much bigger event on Sunday into Monday.   

[LowerGarfield]

I had to laugh when I saw this earlier. Hundreds of miles of Eastern WA and I'm in the warmest spot. But we get our share of fun weather so I can't complain.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just stop.   You understand the issue.  

You stop.

There is no issue.

I haven't seen any normal people on Facebook/Twitter/any social media touting a huge a** destructive storm on our doorstep, probably because they read the whole article.  Which means the headline did not spook anybody.  The only hyperbole I saw about it today, was on here.

[Cloud]

Not seeing any significant changes to the Sunday system on the Euro. If anything, the center may be a notch farther offshore. 

[TT-SEA]

30 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You stop.

There is no issue.

I haven't seen any normal people on Facebook/Twitter/any social media touting a huge a** destructive storm on our doorstep, probably because they read the whole article.  Which means the headline did not spook anybody.  The only hyperbole I saw about it today, was on here.

It was a hyperbolic and misleading headline across the entire main page.   It was silly and probably made the NWS office cringe.   And the issue is that when the media cries wolf over and over... no one will believe anything when its warranted.   Cliff Mass has written about that numerous times.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Not seeing any significant changes to the Sunday system on the Euro. If anything, the center may be a notch farther offshore. 

Here is the total rain from both systems for NoCal per the ECMWF...

 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the total rain from both systems for NoCal per the ECMWF...

 

That's certainly drought busting. 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Not seeing any significant changes to the Sunday system on the Euro. If anything, the center may be a notch farther offshore. 

Low is down to a staggering 947mb on the EURO. Shift that east over the next 12 runs. C'MON!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Broader view...

 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Low is down to a staggering 947mb on the EURO. Shift that east over the next 12 runs. C'MON!!!!

Yeah. That's pretty amazing deep low, if people want a major windstorm then hope it'll shift slightly east and swipe the area. Even as it stands, there isn't anything meaningful in terms of winds on Sunday. It'll be gusty/breezy.