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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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1788777010_download(56).thumb.png.abef8e32e3a08f3fa1a849c42971c918.png

Medford/surprise valley gets some marginal snow showers at the end of the 00z

  • Snow 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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55.8 with breezy east winds.

It is another Fall morning with decent easterly gradients for mid-late October. In fact, they are the strongest of the Fall season thus far. It has turned breezy out here near west Gresham and will be today in PDX metro, especially east of I-205.
 
  • 6 AM
[Gorge/Gap Gradients]
PDX-DLS
: -5.3mb
TTD-DLS: -4.8mb
[Cross Cascade Gradients]
PDX-YKM
: -6.6mb
PDX-MWH: -6.9mb
PDX-GEG: -8.3mb
OTH-GEG: -11.0mb
*Legend: PDX = Portland, DLS = The Dalles, TTD = Troutdale, YKM = Yakima, MWH = Moses Lake, GEG = Spokane, OTH = North Bend
A -Negative value denotes easterly/northerly flow
A +Positive value denotes westerly/onshore flow
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Hmmm, there is a secondary surface low, but not expected to do much. Worth keeping an eye on. I grabbed this from the morning AFD. Oh, and that "bomb cyclone" deepening an astronomical 47mb in 24 hours!

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Water vapor satellite imagery over the past 12-24 hours shows one of the most impressive cyclogenesis events in recent history off the Pacific Northwest coast. WPC surface analysis places the main surface low pressure at 953mb near 136W and 47N when at this time yesterday it was near 1000mb. Models are in good agreement this low pressure will meander around itself for the next 6-12 hours before pushing northward this afternoon and filling. It should be noted there is a secondary surface low pressure apparent in satellite imagery to the southwest of the main low center that appears more distinct in satellite imagery than what most available model guidance would suggest. What little models have picked up on with regards to this feature suggests it will continue to rotate eastward around the main low center and weaken before moving northeastward towards Vancouver Island. Do not foresee this locally tightening the pressure gradient enough along our coast to result in an increased wind threat, but it will be worth monitoring nonetheless.May be an image of map
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00z was the first run of the season to show snow up here. 06z didn’t quite get there. Both were very very wet. Currently a very warm morning. Should close the month out on a very mild note, will likely end up erasing most of the negative anomalies we saw the first half of the month. Certainly won’t end up on any top 10 cold lists. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 hours ago, Cloud said:

That's certainly drought busting. 

I have to wonder if that is going to turn into another natural disaster in California in the form of massive mudslides with all that rain falling on burn scarred hills and mountainsides.  I seem to remember some discussion on here in the past couple of years about soils in burned areas being somewhat hydrophobic for a period of time after the fires.

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8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I have to wonder if that is going to turn into another natural disaster in California in the form of massive mudslides with all that rain falling on burn scarred hills and mountainsides.  I seem to remember some discussion on here in the past couple of years about soils in burned areas being somewhat hydrophobic for a period of time after the fires.

Everyone in town fully expects highway 50 to South Lake Tahoe to get washed away Sunday night/Monday.

The burn scar goes along the highway for 50 miles in a narrow canyon from 3500' al the way to 7400'

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 58 out here already... might have to take some breaks from work just to get outside today.

Use the time you normally spending posting in here. 

  • lol 3
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  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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54 and overcast. The leaves are starting to accumulate on the ground. It feels like Fall!

  • Like 1

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Today’s storm officially kicks off the fall storm season. So exciting. Looking forward to seeing how much rain falls in California. This could be one for the ages!

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  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The next 120 hours, not 384!

Washout for Northern California. 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

  • Excited 1
  • Rain 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I wonder how this stacks up historically for NorCal.

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  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wonder how this stacks up historically for NorCal.

It's not often one of my family members down there gets more rain in one week than I'd get in many times that window.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Got windy down here over the last half hour.

  • Windy 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Actually ends up pretty close to what that EPS member was showing on yesterday's 00z.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_19.png

Could be a very stormy Seahawks game on Monday night.  

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  • Windy 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wish there wasn't a cut in the middle so we could watch the insanely quick development but still... Quite the pretty spinner we have out there.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest-truecolor-15_56Z-20211021_map_-100-1n-10-100.gif

I have noticed that satellite goes dark for a few hours every night lately.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wonder how this stacks up historically for NorCal.

Off the charts for here. NWS Reno morning write up below.

'

After digging through all of the probabilistic guidance, this  
  event is shaping up to be one for the record books. ECMWF Extreme  
  Forecast Index values are notable for most weather elements during 
  the Sunday-Monday time frame, including: CAPE, CAPE shear, Wind,  
  Wind gust, QPF, and snow. The shift of tails values are  
  approaching 5 along the eastern Sierra for snow and QPF, which for 
  you stats nerds means that multiple ensemble members are  
  predicting an extreme QPF/snow event. NAEFS return intervals are  
  signaling the significance of this storm as well, with IVT values 
  registering at "outside of the climatology", which means that  
  none of the late October reanalyses were this wet between 1979  
  and 2009. "
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32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

mmmmmm-cinnamon-rolls.jpg

With good coffee!! 

giphy.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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48 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Off the charts for here. NWS Reno morning write up below.

'

After digging through all of the probabilistic guidance, this  
  event is shaping up to be one for the record books. ECMWF Extreme  
  Forecast Index values are notable for most weather elements during 
  the Sunday-Monday time frame, including: CAPE, CAPE shear, Wind,  
  Wind gust, QPF, and snow. The shift of tails values are  
  approaching 5 along the eastern Sierra for snow and QPF, which for 
  you stats nerds means that multiple ensemble members are  
  predicting an extreme QPF/snow event. NAEFS return intervals are  
  signaling the significance of this storm as well, with IVT values 
  registering at "outside of the climatology", which means that  
  none of the late October reanalyses were this wet between 1979  
  and 2009. "

WOW! This is great news on one hand. On the other there will likely be a lot of damage. Hopefully this helps fill some of the reservoirs. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z was wet though not as much as the 06z. 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looking at the 00z CFS, going with the idea of wet and mild as we go through November. One would think we dry out a little, but continued warm/wet wouldn't be the worst thing in the world either. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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  • Snow 1
  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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How many times have we seen a wet 2nd year Nina after a dry 1st year?

Usually both are either wet or the other way around. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm, there is a secondary surface low, but not expected to do much. Worth keeping an eye on. I grabbed this from the morning AFD. Oh, and that "bomb cyclone" deepening an astronomical 47mb in 24 hours!

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Water vapor satellite imagery over the past 12-24 hours shows one of the most impressive cyclogenesis events in recent history off the Pacific Northwest coast. WPC surface analysis places the main surface low pressure at 953mb near 136W and 47N when at this time yesterday it was near 1000mb. Models are in good agreement this low pressure will meander around itself for the next 6-12 hours before pushing northward this afternoon and filling. It should be noted there is a secondary surface low pressure apparent in satellite imagery to the southwest of the main low center that appears more distinct in satellite imagery than what most available model guidance would suggest. What little models have picked up on with regards to this feature suggests it will continue to rotate eastward around the main low center and weaken before moving northeastward towards Vancouver Island. Do not foresee this locally tightening the pressure gradient enough along our coast to result in an increased wind threat, but it will be worth monitoring nonetheless.May be an image of map

I think this might be that DBL feature we we're seeing on the models about 3 days ago

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

How many times have we seen a wet 2nd year Nina after a dry 1st year?

Usually both are either wet or the other way around. 

Good question I'll have to dig into that. 

2011-12 was a very wet 2nd year Nina, though 2010-11 was wettish too I believe. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Does anyone know if Washington State puts out anything like this?

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good question I'll have to dig into that. 

2011-12 was a very wet 2nd year Nina, though 2010-11 was wettish too I believe. 

Both 10-11 and 11-12 seemed pretty wet in KF.

In fact that first winter it seemed like there were a few more atmospheric river events that rained down here in Dec/Feb compared to the following season where it was mostly snow.

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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For all the talk of rain, it has actually been a fairly dry month so far in Western Oregon. Obviously that is going to change soon. 

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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