snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 No doubt the rain finally hit with a vengeance tonight. I was beginning to wonder if the drying east wind would wipe out a lot of the moisture. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 22 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Thanks I really had no idea It sure looked like there were some wet snow blobs falling. I was surprised when I looked up the temp 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 18 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Night shift? I'm in as much as work allows 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Blob said: I'm in as much as work allows How much does work allow? Do you have WB??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Good lawd. and I thought that new Halloween Kills movie was supposed to be scary.... Saw it on Peacock when it first came out last week, we had the pleasure of having Peacock Premium for "free" as a Comcast customer. Anyway, pretty much agree with you... movie felt dull and boring, ending was way too predictable. In fact, this one was more of a 1978 direct sequel which imo kinda made the 2018 movie somewhat pointless. Hoping the last one will deliver... Jamie Lee Curtis got paid to do nothing in this movie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 I really like this GFS run. A lot of action and a nice little cold snap to finish out the month. It appears to be showing three pretty cold nights at this point. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: What happened to our warm November? General theme for November is a retraction of the North Pacific jet, or as Jim says, a “shut down” Pacific. This will finally allow arctic air to build up in western/central Canada (where-as the current pattern is as hostile as physically possible for arctic air up there). I do suspect there will be a warm/ridgy period in November as we transition away from the raging jet into a more canonical cold season/La Niña type wavetrain. We might get “stuck in the middle” for a bit..long enough for November to average warm across much of the PNW region. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 32 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS Day 2 (Past 4 runs) It's not much, but the trough may be showing a trend to nudge just a few notches further east, and thus the wave development and explosive cyclogenesis/bombogenesis also further east towards ~130 W maybe even a touch inside of it. Obviously we'd need this trend to continue for the next 8-12 runs if it were to have any real impact. I will say we've seen these trends pop up many times in the past and after a continuance of 10-12 runs or so they do end up with a fairly significant result whether that's tracking colder air, or a low pressure system track. I'll keep an eye on this. Ensemble suppor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 I know it’s the NAM…but this is dangerous territory. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: I really like this GFS run. A lot of action and a nice little cold snap to finish out the month. It appears to be showing three pretty cold nights at this point. Go figure. It was the most boring run in days. 2 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Up over 1/3” of an inch of rain now. 1 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: We just watched The Trip which was on the top banner tonight on Netflix and released this week. What a movie... its basically a Norwegian version of Fargo. Its hilarious and seriously gruesome at the same time. Highly recommend it! Will have to check that out. Lots of movies that come out recently have been unoriginal and dull IMO but some do catch me by surprise sometimes. Watched malignant when it came out that was pretty good. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 1" even. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: I know it’s the NAM…but this is dangerous territory. Now that would be a hell of a development. King NAM? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Go figure. It was the most boring run in days. I'm just not into the windstorm possibility. I kind of like baroclinic bands / AR events because they often lead to cold weather. As for the possible windstorm...I just don't see it. If a low were to come into picture pinwheeling around the parent low I would be worried, but it isn't there. Lows like the one being shown just don't track that close to the coast in all but a handful of rare situations. Amazingly two managed to do it in January 1880 and the results were amazing as we all know. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 22 minutes ago, Phil said: General theme for November is a retraction of the North Pacific jet, or as Jim says, a “shut down” Pacific. This will finally allow arctic air to build up in western/central Canada (where-as the current pattern is as hostile as physically possible for arctic air up there). I do suspect there will be a warm/ridgy period in November as we transition away from the raging jet into a more canonical cold season/La Niña type wavetrain. We might get “stuck in the middle” for a bit..long enough for November to average warm across much of the PNW region. Yeah...my confidence isn't high for a warm November, but it's pretty common after a cold October in a La Nina. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Warm November? 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 It went from calm to quite breezy in a span of five to ten minutes. I'm in a windy spot but that was a fun little shift 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 I'm just fine torching in November. Hopefully means the colder stuff holds off until it can be useful in December & January. 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. Analog? 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. Fired a prop gun that was supposed to have just blanks in it. They use the prop guns so they don't have to simulate recoil. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. Really tragic and sad. How is it possible? This isn't the first time something like this happened in Hollywood. In 1993 Brandon Lee, the son of Bruce Lee was killed on the set shooting the movie "The Crow" when he was struck by a bullet. The gun was supposed to be shooting blank, but somehow there was a bullet in there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Non event 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Analog? Looks like a similar incident happened in 1993. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Really tragic and sad. How is it possible? This isn't the first time something like this happened in Hollywood. In 1993 Brandon Lee, the son of Bruce Lee was killed on the set shooting the movie "The Crow" when he was struck by a bullet. The gun was supposed to be shooting blank, but somehow there was a bullet in there. Yeah I was just about to say Brandon lee in 93 was the other time which I didn’t know about until I heard about the story today. Have a hard time believing they will even finish the movie after this happened. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Anyways…back to the weather we’re up over 0.40” now have a good shot at going over 1/2” of rain by midnight. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 The GFS spits out a three day average of 42.5 the final three days of the month at McChord. Should be enough to assure this will be a solidly cold month overall. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Warm November? I'm actually hoping for it. That would be a great day right there. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The GFS spits out a three day average of 42.5 the final three days of the month at McChord. Should be enough to assure this will be a solidly cold month overall. Any reason why you typically use McChord as a baseline? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 26 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: It went from calm to quite breezy in a span of five to ten minutes. I'm in a windy spot but that was a fun little shift We had a crazy wind shift here earlier today. We had strong east winds most of the day, and then out of nowhere the wind went straight westerly every bit as strong as the east winds had been. Never seen that happen before. I've seen going from easterly to SSW, but never straight west like that. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, Cloud said: Really tragic and sad. How is it possible? This isn't the first time something like this happened in Hollywood. In 1993 Brandon Lee, the son of Bruce Lee was killed on the set shooting the movie "The Crow" when he was struck by a bullet. The gun was supposed to be shooting blank, but somehow there was a bullet in there. Not a bullet... typically they use paper, wood, or plastic in blanks. But its still shooting a projectile which can cause injury or death. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blank_(cartridge) 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Any reason why you typically use McChord as a baseline? It's just more representative of the low temps seen for much of the Central Puget Sound region. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 1.18" 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 The faucet have really opened up. Some mod/heavy showers from OLM tracking north over Hood Canal. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Looks like a similar incident happened in 1993. Got awfully chilly late that November… 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: The faucet have really opened up. Some mod/heavy showers from OLM tracking north over Hood Canal. Was just gonna post the same thing! One team one dream 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Wtf is accumulated max wind gust? Stick to the usual!!! I think that means the max wind for the entire run. Hard to believe it would end up that low though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Not a bullet... typically they use paper, wood, or plastic in blanks. But its still shooting a projectile which can cause injury or death. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blank_(cartridge) Not technically a bullet but the prop behaved like one in Brandon's death. The scene was filmed to show the cartridge being loaded into the gun, the cartridge was then replaced and the shooting scene occurred. However, during the time the cartridge was being replaced, one of the tip broke off and got lodged, so when the prop gun was shot, it carried the broke off tip with it behaving like an actual bullet -- in a sense, you're right, it's more of a projectile than a bullet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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