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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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No doubt the rain finally hit with a vengeance tonight.  I was beginning to wonder if the drying east wind would wipe out a lot of the moisture.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Good lawd. and I thought that new Halloween Kills movie was supposed to be scary.... 🤣

Cracking Up Lol GIF

Saw it on Peacock when it first came out last week, we had the pleasure of having Peacock Premium for "free" as a Comcast customer. 

Anyway, pretty much agree with you... movie felt dull and boring, ending was way too predictable. In fact, this one was more of a 1978 direct sequel which imo kinda made the 2018 movie somewhat pointless. Hoping the last one will deliver... Jamie Lee Curtis got paid to do nothing in this movie. 🤣🤣

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I really like this GFS run.   A lot of action and a nice little cold snap to finish out the month.  It appears to be showing three pretty cold nights at this point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

What happened to our warm November?

General theme for November is a retraction of the North Pacific jet, or as Jim says, a “shut down” Pacific.

This will finally allow arctic air to build up in western/central Canada (where-as the current pattern is as hostile as physically possible for arctic air up there).

I do suspect there will be a warm/ridgy period in November as we transition away from the raging jet into a more canonical cold season/La Niña type wavetrain. We might get “stuck in the middle” for a bit..long enough for November to average warm across much of the PNW region.

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32 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Day 2 (Past 4 runs) It's not much, but the trough may be showing a trend to nudge just a few notches further east, and thus the wave development and explosive cyclogenesis/bombogenesis also further east towards ~130 W maybe even a touch inside of it. Obviously we'd need this trend to continue for the next 8-12 runs if it were to have any real impact. I will say we've seen these trends pop up many times in the past and after a continuance of 10-12 runs or so they do end up with a fairly significant result whether that's tracking colder air, or a low pressure system track. I'll keep an eye on this.

trend-gfs-2021102200-f048.500h_anom.na.gif

Ensemble suppor

40E5E46D-EC1F-41E1-81E3-91B1DE596644.png

59F0699F-D679-423F-818F-C6370FB55178.png

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I really like this GFS run.   A lot of action and a nice little cold snap to finish out the month.  It appears to be showing three pretty cold nights at this point.

Go figure. It was the most boring run in days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We just watched The Trip which was on the top banner tonight on Netflix and released this week.    What a movie... its basically a Norwegian version of Fargo.   Its hilarious and seriously gruesome at the same time.   Highly recommend it! 

Will have to check that out. Lots of movies that come out recently have been unoriginal and dull IMO but some do catch me by surprise sometimes. Watched malignant when it came out that was pretty good. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1" even.

  • Rain 5

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Go figure. It was the most boring run in days. 

I'm just not into the windstorm possibility.  I kind of like baroclinic bands / AR events because they often lead to cold weather.

As for the possible windstorm...I just don't see it.  If a low were to come into picture pinwheeling around the parent low I would be worried, but it isn't there.  Lows like the one being shown just don't track that close to the coast in all but a handful of rare situations.  Amazingly two managed to do it in January 1880 and the results were amazing as we all know.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

General theme for November is a retraction of the North Pacific jet, or as Jim says, a “shut down” Pacific.

This will finally allow arctic air to build up in western/central Canada (where-as the current pattern is as hostile as physically possible for arctic air up there).

I do suspect there will be a warm/ridgy period in November as we transition away from the raging jet into a more canonical cold season/La Niña type wavetrain. We might get “stuck in the middle” for a bit..long enough for November to average warm across much of the PNW region.

Yeah...my confidence isn't high for a warm November, but it's pretty common after a cold October in a La Nina.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Warm November?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It went from calm to quite breezy in a span of five to ten minutes. I'm in a windy spot but that was a fun little shift 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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I'm just fine torching in November. Hopefully means the colder stuff holds off until it can be useful in December & January.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with  Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with  Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. 

Analog?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with  Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. 

Fired a prop gun that was supposed to have just blanks in it. They use the prop guns so they don't have to simulate recoil.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with  Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. 

Really tragic and sad. 

How is it possible? This isn't the first time something like this happened in Hollywood. In 1993 Brandon Lee, the son of Bruce Lee was killed on the set shooting the movie "The Crow" when he was struck by a bullet. The gun was supposed to be shooting blank, but somehow there was a bullet in there. 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Really tragic and sad. 

How is it possible? This isn't the first time something like this happened in Hollywood. In 1993 Brandon Lee, the son of Bruce Lee was killed on the set shooting the movie "The Crow" when he was struck by a bullet. The gun was supposed to be shooting blank, but somehow there was a bullet in there. 

Yeah I was just about to say Brandon lee in 93 was the other time which I didn’t know about until I heard about the story today. Have a hard time believing they will even finish the movie after this happened. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The GFS spits out a three day average of 42.5 the final three days of the month at McChord.  Should be enough to assure this will be a solidly cold month overall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Warm November?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

I'm actually hoping for it.  That would be a great day right there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS spits out a three day average of 42.5 the final three days of the month at McChord.  Should be enough to assure this will be a solidly cold month overall.

Any reason why you typically use McChord as a baseline? 

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26 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

It went from calm to quite breezy in a span of five to ten minutes. I'm in a windy spot but that was a fun little shift 

We had a crazy wind shift here earlier today.  We had strong east winds most of the day, and then out of nowhere the wind went straight westerly every bit as strong as the east winds had been.  Never seen that happen before.  I've seen going from easterly to SSW, but never straight west like that.

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  • Windy 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Really tragic and sad. 

How is it possible? This isn't the first time something like this happened in Hollywood. In 1993 Brandon Lee, the son of Bruce Lee was killed on the set shooting the movie "The Crow" when he was struck by a bullet. The gun was supposed to be shooting blank, but somehow there was a bullet in there. 

Not a bullet... typically they use paper, wood, or plastic in blanks.    But its still shooting a projectile which can cause injury or death. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blank_(cartridge)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Any reason why you typically use McChord as a baseline? 

It's just more representative of the low temps seen for much of the Central Puget Sound region.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1.18"

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Wtf is accumulated max wind gust? Stick to the usual!!! 

I think that means the max wind for the entire run.  Hard to believe it would end up that low though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not a bullet... typically they use paper, wood, or plastic in blanks.    But its still shooting a projectile which can cause injury or death. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blank_(cartridge)

Not technically a bullet but the prop behaved like one in Brandon's death. The scene was filmed to show the cartridge being loaded into the gun, the cartridge was then replaced and the shooting scene occurred. However, during the time the cartridge was being replaced, one of the tip broke off and got lodged, so when the prop gun was shot, it carried the broke off tip with it behaving like an actual bullet -- in a sense, you're right, it's more of a projectile than a bullet. 

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