PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is the hr936 EPS mean. Cherry picked timeframe but…dayuum that’s an arctic express pattern if I’ve ever seen one.

Horseshoe block from AK/Aleutians to Greenland.

Anything after 11/15 is fair game in my books. And getting cold in November isn't necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes you get cold and stay cold, especially in La Niña years... A la 1955/56 (yes I know, different climate state, but my point still stands)

Also do you mind sharing some of those "ridiculously cold" EPS members? I'd love to see some snowmaps

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Anything after 11/15 is fair game in my books. And getting cold in November isn't necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes you get cold and stay cold, especially in La Niña years... A la 1955/56 (yes I know, different climate state, but my point still stands)

Also do you mind sharing some of those "ridiculously cold" EPS members? I'd love to see some snowmaps

Yeah, I agree. I'm feeling some potential around the 21st lasting through Thanksgiving turkey(or pizza?) day.

6z GFS in 1 hour 16 minutes

[Cloud]

Tim is not going to like what Phil is sharing.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah, I agree. I'm feeling some potential around the 21st lasting through Valentines day.

6z GFS in 1 hour 16 minutes

ftfy  

[Phil]

Also, Dr. Roundy’s experimental filtered tropical forcing analogs feature the high amplitude NPAC blocking as well (though verbatim this is more +NAO compared to the EPS).

Still, I’d ignore the exact placement of the block. That’s less important at this range. IMO the key takeaway is there appears to be a growing consensus for a period of amplification during mid/late November. 

[Meatyorologist]

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

ftfy  

No complaints here!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift is gonna be one helluva party this year.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM 3km wimpy 944mb low

[snow drift]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z NAM 3km wimpy 944mb low

You see those everyday. Nothing to see here.

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z NAM 3km wimpy 944mb low

Quite an intensification being shown as well. Goes from 983 to 950 in about 6 hours. With an average of 5.5-6mb drop per hour.  Then we get to 944 in about 10 hours.

Just your every day storm out there. 

[Cloud]

NAM cutting it real close. Very similar to 2016 Songda path. 

[smerfylicious]

Jeeze if it doesn't take a turn north that'd be quite the windy party for Northern WA. 

[Meatyorologist]

From a meteorological perspective Sunday's storm looks jaw-dropping. But from an impact standpoint it'll be pretty underwhelming outside of coastal surf concerns.

Next Wednesday night's smaller low looks a bit more interesting in that regard... Tight low w/ a bit of baroclinity to it. Could pack a punch in a small area, especially since it's strengthening on impact, not filling. Recent runs don't show it developing too much since its inception is a bit late, so we'll see.

[snow maniac]

We need a good wind storm to plow strait through Washington. It’s been way too long

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, Cloud said:

Tim is not going to like what Phil is sharing.

From the middle of November through the middle of February... I am more a fan of cold than warm.      Warm usually means endless rain in that period.   So I am very intrigued by what Phil was sharing.   Maybe a front loaded winter! 

[TT-SEA]

4 hours ago, Cloud said:

Quite an intensification being shown as well. Goes from 983 to 950 in about 6 hours. With an average of 5.5-6mb drop per hour.  Then we get to 944 in about 10 hours.

Just your every day storm out there. 

Here is the 06Z ECMWF... looks like it bottoms out at 942mb.

[Blizzard777]

Might need to make a trip down to the coast for some wave action. Vortex fun!

[Timmy Supercell]

Active weather! It was pouring all morning long. 

[Timmy Supercell]

0.71" at KLMT, pretty good!

[seattleweatherguy]

6 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z NAM 3km wimpy 944mb low

If it is like Thursday system it’s just 30 to 35 mph gusts not much to see with winds

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like Northern California was hit the hardest.

[Anti Marine Layer]

38 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

0.71" at KLMT, pretty good!

Well below the 3.57" for Crescent City.

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Well below the 3.57" for Crescent City.

Pretty insane that it would be drier out in Klamath Falls.

[T-Town]

52 and misty at Alderbrook this morning. There was a guy swimming in the canal when I was out about 7:30. I try to enjoy my normal activities regardless of the weather, but that’s going above and beyond. 

[Geos]

Dry right now, but it looks like a lot of showers moving in for the rest of the morning. 

[Phil]

I’m surprised Jim hasn’t posted about the weeklies yet. Some of the members go full Nov 1985. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

15 minutes ago, T-Town said:

52 and misty at Alderbrook this morning. There was a guy swimming in the canal when I was out about 7:30. I try to enjoy my normal activities regardless of the weather, but that’s going above and beyond. 

Maybe he does Polar Bear Plunge on New Year's Day.

[Anti Marine Layer]

32 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty insane that it would be drier out in Klamath Falls.

They're in the desert portion of Oregon.

[Timmy Supercell]

35 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty insane that it would be drier out in Klamath Falls.

I have seen more than that in the past; and it's still raining as we all type! 

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

They're in the desert portion of Oregon.

Greater Idaho pretty soon. 

[Timmy Supercell]

This beats all those fake 45/15 days in Oct 2019, blinding sun all day, and your hands get zapped when turning lights on. lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z coming in WET!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z coming in WET!

Yowza!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jim will like this. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS totals. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS ensemble low locations for the Sunday storm.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jim will like this. 

Temps for the last frame.

[seattleweatherguy]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS ensemble low locations for the Sunday storm.

Trending south?

[Timmy Supercell]