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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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58 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Yea, until your stomach decides to do a rug pull on you.

My wife thinks it's a class issue. She grew up working class and I am from a middle class background, but I think it's a matter of not wanting fake Mexican food and feeling sick after. My son loves Taco Bell sadly. 

In weather news my wife said it reached 70F after I went to bed. It was a normal 56F this morning though.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Weekly control run is also very cold from the second week of November through the end of the run.

2137933032_ScreenShot2021-10-22at12_08_26PM.thumb.png.e34af24f89d4980d056dc330264174cc.png615059168_ScreenShot2021-10-22at12_08_44PM.thumb.png.63c7488798d78ca7ea6d3cdf1a45a71b.png

Matt might have some frozen tears during his Thanksgiving weekend naked badminton tournament. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

My wife thinks it's a class issue. She grew up working class and I am from a middle class background, but I think it's a matter of not wanting fake Mexican food and feeling sick after. My son loves Taco Bell sadly. 

In weather news my wife said it reached 70F after I went to bed. It was a normal 56F this morning though.

Taco Bell Reaction GIF by 60 Second Docs

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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21 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Wow, perusing "social media" I'm seeing a lot of sensationalist/s posts regarding Sunday's system. 

Especially a lot of single deterministic model runs and folks already buying into the hype and collective BS from folks whom obviously have no idea wtf they're talking about. 

It's a tough one on the communication front.

On the one hand, it really does look like an unprecedentedly strong storm with barometric pressure equivalent to a strong category 3 hurricane. On the other, it will almost certainly weaken well before it reaches shore so the inland impact will likely not be very noteworthy. Tough distinction to make.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Wow, perusing "social media" I'm seeing a lot of sensationalist/s posts regarding Sunday's system. 

Especially a lot of single deterministic model runs and folks already buying into the hype and collective BS from folks whom obviously have no idea wtf they're talking about. 

Then they'll do the classic "sEe!!! ThE wEaThEr pEopLe ArE aLwaYs WrOnG!!!!!"

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

True November cold here is so rare, but I can’t think of many examples where a good winter followed a major November cold snap. 1955-56 was a great winter though. 

Depends what you mean by major.

2010-11 had a subsequent arctic airmass in February.

2006-07 had one in January.

1996-97 had a very similar pattern repeat in late December.

1985-86 had a fake cold December and then a very active February.

1978-79 stayed frigid through early February.

1959-60 had major snows in January and March.

1946-47 had  subsequent airmasses in January. 

1921-22 stayed cold throughout.

1911-12 had a subsequent airmass in early January. 

1900-01 had a very snowy January.

1896-97 had subsequent airmasses in January and March.

1887-88 had an epic January.

1872-73 and 1859-60 both had very cold Decembers.

So it's actually much more common to see follow up events than not after a November cold/snow event. 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Depends what you mean by major.

2010-11 had a subsequent arctic airmass in February.

2006-07 had one in January.

1996-97 had a very similar pattern repeat in late December.

1985-86 had a fake cold December and then a very active February.

1978-79 stayed frigid through early February.

1959-60 had major snows in January and March.

1946-47 had  subsequent airmasses in January. 

1921-22 stayed cold throughout.

1911-12 had a subsequent airmass in early January. 

1900-01 had a very snowy January.

1896-97 had subsequent airmasses in January and March.

1887-88 had an epic January.

1872-73 and 1859-60 both had very cold Decembers.

So it's actually much more common to see follow up events than not after a November cold/snow event. 

An epic November cold pattern usually thaws in January or weakens by that point. February usually works out though.

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Depends what you mean by major.

2010-11 had a subsequent arctic airmass in February.

2006-07 had one in January.

1996-97 had a very similar pattern repeat in late December.

1985-86 had a fake cold December and then a very active February.

1978-79 stayed frigid through early February.

1959-60 had major snows in January and March.

1946-47 had  subsequent airmasses in January. 

1921-22 stayed cold throughout.

1911-12 had a subsequent airmass in early January. 

1900-01 had a very snowy January.

1896-97 had subsequent airmasses in January and March.

1887-88 had an epic January.

1872-73 and 1859-60 both had very cold Decembers.

So it's actually much more common to see follow up events than not after a November cold/snow event. 

I feel better now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast wind of 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph are
  possible.

* WHERE...San Juan County, Western Whatcom County, Western
  Skagit County, Admiralty Inlet Area, Western Strait of Juan De
  Fuca, North Coast and Central Coast.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like a Volvo S60. We had a 2003 S60 that the kids drove for years. Great car. It was even white. 

It’s a 2000 Volvo S80 only 146k miles on it. Love this car. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast wind of 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph are
  possible.

* WHERE...San Juan County, Western Whatcom County, Western
  Skagit County, Admiralty Inlet Area, Western Strait of Juan De
  Fuca, North Coast and Central Coast.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

Don’t they put these alerts out for your area even if a cloud appears from the west? 🎃

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Raining pretty decently out here on the island. Wanted to test out the north face tent I bought last month against some decent rain events. Saturday night into Sunday will be a real test but so far it hasn’t let me down. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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19 minutes ago, snow drift said:

An epic November cold pattern usually thaws in January or weakens by that point. February usually works out though.

It's very hard for us to sustain major cold anomalies  for more than a month. Plenty of Januaries that delivered something following a November event, though. The chances of a historic January are always low regardless.

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Any opinions on what the most complete NW winter of all time was? Maybe pre-1900 and then post 1900? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any opinions on what the most complete NW winter of all time was? Maybe pre-1900 and then post 1900? 

Maybe another one post 2000 too. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Maybe another one post 2000 too. 

Either 2008-09 or 2016-17

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any opinions on what the most complete NW winter of all time was? Maybe pre-1900 and then post 1900? 

No idea about pre 1900 and really before the late 1970’s…But for me the most complete winters were (for all active weather events) 1992-93, 1995-96, 1996-97, and 2006-07. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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18z NAM showed the low kinda stalled and meandered for a few hours with pressure if 946-947mb before lifting north and NW into Vancouver Island. Still not much of an impact for most of the region but considering how potent this storm is, the stalling could potentially prolong and pump the wind gusts into the region for some expanded advisories. Lots of coastal impact. We’ll see.

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Depends what you mean by major.

2010-11 had a subsequent arctic airmass in February.

2006-07 had one in January.

1996-97 had a very similar pattern repeat in late December.

1985-86 had a fake cold December and then a very active February.

1978-79 stayed frigid through early February.

1959-60 had major snows in January and March.

1946-47 had  subsequent airmasses in January. 

1921-22 stayed cold throughout.

1911-12 had a subsequent airmass in early January. 

1900-01 had a very snowy January.

1896-97 had subsequent airmasses in January and March.

1887-88 had an epic January.

1872-73 and 1859-60 both had very cold Decembers.

So it's actually much more common to see follow up events than not after a November cold/snow event. 

And the there's the fact that our sample size is simply too small to make an accurate depiction of our winter. Analogs stop being viable in any sense pre-1960s and are ill advised before the 1990s. With AGW and natural flux in pattern tendencies it's almost impossible to say. As great as some of these outcomes were, they could have done better (or worse) if the die had been rolled in a different way.

There is never an analog for the winter that's never happened before... Just look at 2018-19! El Niño with no hope into the final stretch of the season, people bringing their boats out to clean them. Then, POW! Huge, memorable February, the best such month in a generation.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

It's very hard for us to sustain major cold anomalies  for more than a month. Plenty of Januaries that delivered something following a November event, though. The chances of a historic January are always low regardless.

I'm talking November 85' followed by January 79' etc. I doubt that has ever happened. 

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9 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I wish there were better records for 1861-62. 

Me too.

The records we do have all paint a pretty astounding picture, though.

Astoria had a 28.2 monthly mean in January, Fort Yamhill near McMinnville had a 23.9 monthly mean, Fort Vancouver had a 21.3 monthly mean, and Fort Dalles had a 10.9 monthly mean. All of these blow away their modern records.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Either 2008-09 or 2016-17

Yeah I’d say 18-19 possibly but that was late winter early spring. February 2019 was pretty incredible in the fact the highest temp achieved the whole month was just 48…never hit 50 once which in the last 15 years hasn’t happened in any other month. Even after the big snows in the first half of the month there were plenty of days with snow in the air and a couple marginal events in March.

 I’d have to say up here in western WA 08-09 was the best of the 21st century. Obviously there’s December 2008…but we also managed a little snow here in February and March 2009. 16-17 was better for Oregon than us…just solely based on the January 2017 event which didn’t amount to much up here…still a pretty chilly month. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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13-14 and 16-17 were the best for here in the 21st century so far.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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