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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

13-14 and 16-17 were the best for here in the 21st century so far.

December 2013 came out of nowhere... Just a perfect combination of clear weather, long nights, snowcover, and a decent airmass. That -10 at KEUG will stand the test of time.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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58 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Quite a different look here today compared to what I left yesterday.  Clouds did finally move in/thicken up mid-afternoon

AEB706BA-9137-4E24-A21C-3590132EA503.jpeg

BC5C2EE5-BA07-46A9-A09A-1620FC8FD122.jpeg

I see you found the M!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

So far, this weather system has been a complete dud (for Everett, Washington/north sound area).  We've had nothing other than some light showers, and even then, it wasn't much.  I don't expect much from this "latest local news hype piece."  Hmm... I should come up with a better term than that.  It's been weirdly warm here too.  It's usually colder in Everett, but yesterday we hit 69-70F degrees and today was also 65F at one point.

Bring us some rain!!!!! :D

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13 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

Well I might be dating myself, but Dec 1968 and Jan 1969 must be considered top tier. 2 major snowfalls accompanied by a static Arctic air mass that lasted the entire month of Jan 1969 

My grandparents seem to remember January 1969 and November 1985 the most. They also remember the Columbus Day storm very well always love talking to my grandpa about his memories from that day. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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35 minutes ago, iFred said:

Currently trying to compress images and clean up space for the forum. Since I removed the upload restrictions in November '18, we were close to running out of space. I have put in something that limits file uploads to under 100mb per post, this means no more 15 minute videos of dark clouds in suburban DC. If anyone wants to upload longer videos, either compress it or break it apart.

Sh*t…

I just put the finishing touches on my double-time time lapse video of the June 2021 heatwave.  Lesson learned for dragging my feet on that.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I’d say 18-19 possibly but that was late winter early spring. February 2019 was pretty incredible in the fact the highest temp achieved the whole month was just 48…never hit 50 once which in the last 15 years hasn’t happened in any other month. Even after the big snows in the first half of the month there were plenty of days with snow in the air and a couple marginal events in March.

 I’d have to say up here in western WA 08-09 was the best of the 21st century. Obviously there’s December 2008…but we also managed a little snow here in February and March 2009. 16-17 was better for Oregon than us…just solely based on the January 2017 event which didn’t amount to much up here…still a pretty chilly month. 

SEA had 2"+ of snow every month from Dec-Mar in 2008-09. Only winter on record that has achieved that.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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52F and cloudy but dry. Had some rain earlier.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

13-14 and 16-17 were the best for here in the 21st century so far.

2013-14 was amazing in Eugene and Corvallis. Overall wasn’t much of a winter here outside those cold snaps. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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For Salem I would say 2008-09 was probably slightly better the 2016-17 though not quite as consistently cold. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z MM5-NAM wow if only the jet support was there and the low didn't weaken. Look at this track!

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2021102300.naminit/images_d2/slp.69.0000.gif

MM5 and even past runs of the GFS want to weaken this system way too fast, I suspect we could be looking at a near YAZ to YYJ landfall around 968mb to 975mb. 

In fact I would lean towards a YYJ landfall

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1 minute ago, JBolin said:

MM5 and even past runs of the GFS want to weaken this system way too fast, I suspect we could be looking at a near YAZ to YYJ landfall around 968mb to 975mb. 

In fact I would lean towards a YYJ landfall

 

00z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis forecasts Sundays low to track east-southeast and deepening to 968mb at 140 W? That seems a bit earlier with rapid cyclogenesis to me compared to what is modeled. That may favor a further north trajectory....

https://ocean.weather.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.png

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:
 

00z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis forecasts Sundays low to track east-southeast and deepening to 968mb at 140 W? That seems a bit earlier with rapid cyclogenesis to me compared to what is modeled. That may favor a further north trajectory....

https://ocean.weather.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.png

I see that but with a bit of suppression and an initial SE track before closing I think W. Wa is still in the crosshair's.

If the jet flattens out before then I would agree on the earlier turn NNE

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10 minutes ago, JBolin said:

I see that but with a bit of suppression and an initial SE track before closing I think W. Wa is still in the crosshair's.

If the jet flattens out before then I would agree on the earlier turn NNE

Yeah, my thoughts too. That wave is rocketing east along the strong jet. If you were to look at wv loop right right now at first glance you'd think this low is just going to blast east and hammer us...

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&sec=full_disk&x=8952&y=2920&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=100&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&lat=1&p[0]=band_09&opacity[0]=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

image.png

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
The low initially is about 70 miles east-southeast from 18z, 12z, but it still fills and weakens resulting in a relaxed gradient field. Meh

I don't know, this one just feels different. It just bumps closer and closer to being problematic each run, but always falls apart too quickly. It's like a bad dream when you're trying to reach for something or run to something and it's JUST out of reach. So close, but JUUUUST out of reach. 

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1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

I don't know, this one just feels different. It just bumps closer and closer to being problematic each run, but always falls apart too quickly. It's like a bad dream when you're trying to reach for something or run to something and it's JUST out of reach. So close, but JUUUUST out of reach. 

Yeah seeing a 940-943mb low offshore is crazy and it will seem as if it's going to demolish us. It will be fun nonetheless to watch it all develop on IR/WV loop.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 34 minutes

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah seeing a 940-943mb low offshore is crazy and it will seem as if it's going to demolish us. It will be fun nonetheless to watch it all develop on IR/WV loop.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 34 minutes

I keep my family and friends abreast on what the models are saying and the discussion on boards like this and this one seems different than other storms. I think because the 'bullet' is so big. I mean, it is clear that the thing is going to weaken, even in the strongest runs it weakens as it gets close to land, so I would not put any real money on this being a widespread blow out for Puget Sound.
But we've had storms surprise us year after year. It could surprise us and slide north and die faster than forecasted, or it could continue to strengthen and maintain strength as it gets close to Olympic Peninsula. Sure, those two are not likely scenarios, but, they aren't impossible, and the consequence would be pretty terrible if it pushes farther east and maintains its basic size.
That would change a breezy day for the interior into a catastrophic event. Again, not saying that is going to happen or is even likely, but it is also not impossible. Crazy to watch something like this. Never before in history. I love me some big weather events, but even I am hoping this thing brings a couple decent, non-damaging gusts, some sideways rain, maybe lightening strike, and some heavy rain to put us to sleep Sunday night. :) that sounds perfect!

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10 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I keep my family and friends abreast on what the models are saying and the discussion on boards like this and this one seems different than other storms. I think because the 'bullet' is so big. I mean, it is clear that the thing is going to weaken, even in the strongest runs it weakens as it gets close to land, so I would not put any real money on this being a widespread blow out for Puget Sound.
But we've had storms surprise us year after year. It could surprise us and slide north and die faster than forecasted, or it could continue to strengthen and maintain strength as it gets close to Olympic Peninsula. Sure, those two are not likely scenarios, but, they aren't impossible, and the consequence would be pretty terrible if it pushes farther east and maintains its basic size.
That would change a breezy day for the interior into a catastrophic event. Again, not saying that is going to happen or is even likely, but it is also not impossible. Crazy to watch something like this. Never before in history. I love me some big weather events, but even I am hoping this thing brings a couple decent, non-damaging gusts, some sideways rain, maybe lightening strike, and some heavy rain to put us to sleep Sunday night. :) that sounds perfect!

Late June 2021, anything is possible now.

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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Huskies look terrible 

It's just unbelievable.  Dylan Morris stares like a deer in headlights at the sidelines before every play waiting to be told what to do and then proceeds to screw up most of the plays anyways.    He looks completely clueless.   How in the hell is he a QB at this level?  And why is Jimmy Lake so horrible at energizing the team.   Lake and the entire staff needs to be fired ASAP.    The Huskies might be one of the worst teams in the country this year.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's just unbelievable.  Dylan Morris stares like a deer in headlights at the sidelines before every play waiting to be told what to do and then proceeds to screw up most of the plays anyways.    He looks completely clueless.   How in the hell is he a QB at this level?  And why is Jimmy Lake so horrible at energizing the team.   Lake and the entire staff needs to be fired ASAP.    The Huskies might be one of the worst teams in the country this year.

Yea I feel bad for y’all. This just hurts to watch…. Arizona looks horrific also

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea I feel bad for y’all. This just hurts to watch…. Arizona looks horrific also

That's the comical part.  AZ is terrible and the Huskies look significantly worse!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 hours ago, Phil said:

Andrew likes zonal flow, dude.

Boring.  It can be great for Tim or him, but not most of us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like the GFS goes for a major pattern change in week 2.  Much blockier and an opportunity for cold nights.  Great pattern to show off the remaining fall colors.  The cottonwoods should be great by then.  They are turning much better and earlier than normal here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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