TacomaWaWx Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Looks like if the euro verifies we will be over 4” of rain for the month. Not bad was hoping for more but still decent. Looking like Halloween will be dry for the 3rd year in a row that’s a pretty decent streak…hopefully can manage some good Halloween sunset photos have gotten some amazing ones the last 2 years. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 00Z EPS shows the western troughing lifting out as we move into November... 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z EPS shows the western troughing lifting out as we move into November... Will have to get some more camping in late this month and next month. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 .02” so far on the day, 3.64” for the month, 38.72” for the year. Currently sprinkles and 48. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Will have to get some more camping in late this month and next month. Good idea. My wife wants to get a larger propane heater for the tent. It has a carbon monoxide sensor but it still makes me nervous to sleep in the tent with it. In Wyoming I kept opening the tent a little once she fell asleep which is probably part of why she thinks we need a bigger one. Lol 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 I am going to round up and say I’m in the HWW zone since I am a half mile south of the Skagit border!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Wind Advisory posted for the EPSL for tomorrow. Gusts up to 45 mph. Going to be an east wind out here tomorrow... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Good idea. My wife wants to get a larger propane heater for the tent. It has a carbon monoxide sensor but it still makes me nervous to sleep in the tent with it. In Wyoming I kept opening the tent a little once she fell asleep which is probably part of why she thinks we need a bigger one. Lol Yeah the weathers looking good always love to get some camping in during off-season times. I’ve always been nervous about using those propane heaters in tents too…probably a good thing you kept opening the tent. I’ve never used one I just have a 0 degree sleeping bag and on nights when it got down to the upper 20s it’s been fine for me. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z EPS shows the western troughing lifting out as we move into November... Looks like we’re both rooting for November ridging... though for different reasons! 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Looking at 12z NAM and HRRR it’s not out of the question…both are within striking distance and don’t weaken the system as quickly. Especially the HRRR. I’m arming up regardless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z EPS shows the western troughing lifting out as we move into November... A moment in time to get those Christmas lights up! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Looks like we’re both rooting for November ridging... though for different reasons! I would be good with a cold and snowy December and January too! Of course we will be in Hawaii for the entire second half of December... but December and January are when I cheer strongly for cold. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Good idea. My wife wants to get a larger propane heater for the tent. It has a carbon monoxide sensor but it still makes me nervous to sleep in the tent with it. In Wyoming I kept opening the tent a little once she fell asleep which is probably part of why she thinks we need a bigger one. Lol Same, I don’t trust using those things either. I’d rather freeze at night knowing I’ll wake up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 La Grande, OR is looking very windy tomorrow! Could see strong tropical storm like gusts! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 55 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Looks like if the euro verifies we will be over 4” of rain for the month. Not bad was hoping for more but still decent. Looking like Halloween will be dry for the 3rd year in a row that’s a pretty decent streak…hopefully can manage some good Halloween sunset photos have gotten some amazing ones the last 2 years. We could potentially end up with below-normal rainfall this month. I don’t think we will partially because PDX happens to be in a fortuitous location this morning. I don’t know when you guys are going to start believing me about modeled rainfall versus verified rainfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Dumping right now. Should easily eclipse a half inch for the day here soon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 12Z GFS... slight shift to the northwest compared to the 00Z run. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Dumping right now. Should easily eclipse a half inch for the day here soon. Yeah, nice strong rain band moving through the metro area right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Agree. It’s a weird storm with a weird track that is not typical of big winds around here. There’s basically no pressure surge and the thing is essentially occluded before it makes landfall. It’s a deep low but it’s also a large system sitting in a “moat” of low pressure, so the gradient isn’t as tight as it might otherwise be. Put me in the bearish camp on this one save the most exposed areas w/ the longest fetch. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Rain has begun here looks like it’s gonna be a damp morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: We could potentially end up with below-normal rainfall this month. I don’t think we will partially because PDX happens to be in a fortuitous location this morning. I don’t know when you guys are going to start believing me about modeled rainfall versus verified rainfall. Very very unlikely. We have a shot at a top 10 wet October here if that AR sets up right later next week. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: We could potentially end up with below-normal rainfall this month. I don’t think we will partially because PDX happens to be in a fortuitous location this morning. I don’t know when you guys are going to start believing me about modeled rainfall versus verified rainfall. The GFS has been pretty consistent in hitting us with an AR late next next though. My gut is telling me that it will end up being most impactful north of us if it materializes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Very very unlikely. We have a shot at a top 10 wet October here if that AR sets up right later next week. Yeah... the AR coming up is the wild card but seems almost guaranteed to bring at least some significant rain down there to boost the October totals. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Very very unlikely. We have a shot at a top 10 wet October here if that AR sets up right later next week. Ha, I just commented on the AR. It is very unlikely that we end up below-normal. You’re right. Tomorrow isn’t looking terribly impressive for rain though. It was once looking like quite a soaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Ha, I just commented on the AR. It is very unlikely that we end up below-normal. You’re right. Tomorrow isn’t looking terribly impressive for rain though. It was once looking like quite a soaker. Strong offshore flow tomorrow will definitely limit rainfall totals out here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Nice amount of rain this morning! Keep it coming! Not as heavy but it's certainly a steady falling rain. 39 right now, was 42 a couple hours ago. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 12Z GFS still on board with a dry and sunny weekend next week for Halloween festivities. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Waves breaking all over the place next week on the GFS, as the NPAC jet begins pulling back. It marks the beginning of the evolution away from the ongoing quasi-zonal pattern, into an amplified, meridional type pattern for the month of November. Should finally see some legitimate arctic air build into North America next month. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Currently 48 and light rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 12Z GFS shows a snowy Halloween for the upper Midwest. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Gfs would put us over 5” on the month here and the euro about 4.5” not bad. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GFS... slight shift to the northwest compared to the 00Z run. With that track, we're still going to see some potentially damaging winds, imo... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 29 minutes ago, Phil said: There’s basically no pressure surge and the thing is essentially occluded before it makes landfall. It’s a deep low but it’s also a large system sitting in a “moat” of low pressure, so the gradient isn’t as tight as it might otherwise be. Put me in the bearish camp on this one save the most exposed areas w/ the longest fetch. You do speak “Basic” !!! Nice analysis Phil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, crf450ish said: With that track, we're still going to see some potentially damaging winds, imo... Probably not for the Seattle area though... flow will stay offshore into Monday with the low offshore and not moving inland to the north which is the track that causes the most problems here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z EPS shows the western troughing lifting out as we move into November... It's been a mellow month over here. The sun's even peeking out this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Heading to the upper McKenzie River with the adventure club at OSU. Here’s a nice little south valley scene. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awright31 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 It is quite dark, dreary, and ominous looking outside this morning, not to mention blustery. No tree damage yet but leaves are flying everywhere. I think this storm might surprise us a bit, but we'll see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 This ridging could also be a head fake or get watered down. Still hope. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GFS still on board with a dry and sunny weekend next week for Halloween festivities. I was hoping for wet candy! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This ridging could also be a head fake or get watered down. Still hope. Not sure why you would root against the ridge... early November 1949 was very warm and ridgy. It was also near 70 here in early November 2010. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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