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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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18Z Nam has bumped up winds for King County. Easily the strongest of the all the models. Does it always overdo wind? I know it can be a bit heavy handed with the snow, does it also tend to be a bit bullish with wind events?

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Sean Nyberg

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15 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

18Z Nam has bumped up winds for King County. Easily the strongest of the all the models. Does it always overdo wind? I know it can be a bit heavy handed with the snow, does it also tend to be a bit bullish with wind events?

It always overdoes everything 

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Up to 5.68" of rain on the month. 

  • Storm 1
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rainbow in Pullman... go Cougs!  

20211023_141820.jpg

They are both the COUGS!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, SnowChild said:

Somewhat off topic, but there has been lots of talk about the Atlantic current slowing or even shutting down in the news. 
 

What impact could that have on PNW weather? 

That is a total unknown as far as I know.  No doubt it would have major impact on global patterns.  Probably even more profound than ENSO.

I would have to see it happen to believe it though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The models hint at a possible -EPO - PNA pattern developing the second week of November.  Just something to watch for now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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27 minutes ago, Timmy said:

It always overdoes everything 

Couldn't have said it better myself.  It always overdoes cold also when it's over a day out.  I have no idea why they don't fix that model.  It's supposed to be specifically for fine details in North America, and it sucks.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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30 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I think the only winners in a windstorm are the ones who get the least wind

I'm ok with it up to 35 or 40.  Over that it's a pain in the arse.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Yikes.  There's a story in the news about a ship off the WA Coast losing shipping containers from the rough seas.  With the back up of freighters out there this could be a serious issue with this storm.  More supply chain problems.

There's a bunch of freighters off the WA coast right now?

A forum for the end of the world.

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42 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There's a bunch of freighters off the WA coast right now?

I've heard they are stacked up everywhere due to the problems at the ports.  Not sure exactly where they are sitting though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, umadbro said:

What could have been 

0B92964C-70CE-48AE-87A3-D1F797B94135.png

A little info about the 1934 event...

The gale of '34 appears to have been the biggest, most destructive storm to strike the Pacific Northwest in the time period delineated by the January 29, 1921 and Columbus Day 1962 windstorms. For some Puget Sound locations, such as Seattle, this was possibly the strongest storm on record. The extratropical cyclone brought high winds and widespread damage to all three of the major population centers: Portland, Seattle and Vancouver, British Columbia. Numerous buildings were damaged or destroyed. Unreinforced masonry walls and chimneys collapsed, roofs took to the air, boats sunk, countless trees toppled sometimes crushing cars and structures, fences fell, powerlines were downed and telephone service rendered inoperative (Vancouver Sun 1934a). In a manner similar to a hurricane, the combination of low pressure, strong winds and high tide produced a storm surge on the Pacific Coast that flooded many neighborhoods and towns. In some cases people were trapped by the rising water and had to be rescued during the storm. The gale was also deadly, taking a human toll that is second only to the Columbus Day Storm of 1962. At least 18 people were killed in this event, many from collapsing structures and sunken vessels.

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  • Windy 1
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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, umadbro said:

What could have been 

0B92964C-70CE-48AE-87A3-D1F797B94135.png

And thank God wasn't.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A little info about the 1934 event...

The gale of '34 appears to have been the biggest, most destructive storm to strike the Pacific Northwest in the time period delineated by the January 29, 1921 and Columbus Day 1962 windstorms. For some Puget Sound locations, such as Seattle, this was possibly the strongest storm on record. The extratropical cyclone brought high winds and widespread damage to all three of the major population centers: Portland, Seattle and Vancouver, British Columbia. Numerous buildings were damaged or destroyed. Unreinforced masonry walls and chimneys collapsed, roofs took to the air, boats sunk, countless trees toppled sometimes crushing cars and structures, fences fell, powerlines were downed and telephone service rendered inoperative (Vancouver Sun 1934a). In a manner similar to a hurricane, the combination of low pressure, strong winds and high tide produced a storm surge on the Pacific Coast that flooded many neighborhoods and towns. In some cases people were trapped by the rising water and had to be rescued during the storm. The gale was also deadly, taking a human toll that is second only to the Columbus Day Storm of 1962. At least 18 people were killed in this event, many from collapsing structures and sunken vessels.

Sounds like a blast.

For a lot of people on here this is a be careful what you wish for scenario.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, SnowChild said:

Somewhat off topic, but there has been lots of talk about the Atlantic current slowing or even shutting down in the news. 
 

What impact could that have on PNW weather? 

More rain at Tim’s house probably.

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5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

We were discussing media sensationalism for that first storm on Thursday. Luckily, we got people like Scott out there doing their best to combat that clickbaity hype.

 

Several of my buddies and coworkers knows how much I'm into weather and climatology. Pretty much been getting an onslaught of texts asking how bad the storm is because they "read on and heard on the news that there is a 'bomb cyclone' and that they're worried about power outages" -- had to ensure them that everything is okay and the storm is way offshore. 

This is the type of media sensationalism that we have to deal with and it targets a certain group of people who have no clue about anything about weather for clicks. It's also up to us to not fan the flames on social media by posting these type of maps without a broader context and explanation. 

This is a fight that I'll be with Scott all the way. 

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18z got kind of chilly in the long range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Winds in the advisory up to 45mph but if this is like the last two storms here, translates to 55-60mph.

KLMT can even back me up on that.

  • Windy 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, JBolin said:

How busy?

Like engage in carpentry/build a deck and coat it in Thompson's water seal "busy"?

Get some extras at the liquor store this evening, "busy" 🍻

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  • scream 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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