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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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Wow!  The 0z GFS is much nicer with the month end cold snap.  Much better opportunity for a hard frost and chilly Halloween, due to much less east wind.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That cold strong east wind on 0z really warms my soul 

  • Snow 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  The 0z GFS is much nicer with the month end cold snap.  Much better opportunity for a hard frost and chilly Halloween, due to much less east wind.

Looks delightfully backdoor and quite breezy to me.

  • Like 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, The Swamp said:

it's not going to take much to blow down some of the old dead trees and ones loaded with wet leaves

i expect this storm to over perform because nearly everyone on this here site is poo poo'ing it

get your candles and flash lights ready

gather up some canned goods and toilet paper

get ready for a few days with out power

 

I think places near the foothills in King County could get decent east winds from this.  Places near the Sound may get some decent southerlies a bit later in the event, but the center just remains too far west for anything block buster IMO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Looks delightfully backdoor and quite breezy to me.

It's delayed from pervious runs though.  The initial cold surge is from the NW and N.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Nice looking setup centered around Nov 6 now also.  So it begins!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Which runs? This one is a lot more backdoorsy than any other runs last 24 hours. 

I'm just talking about when the surface gradients become easterly.  This run has a more sustained period of NW to N gradients which is much more favorable for cold temps in this area.  That is reflected in the temps at months end on this run.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The 0z GFS is quite a bit colder for the Oct 29 to Nov 3 period than previous runs.  Should be pretty crisp if this verifies.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice looking setup centered around Nov 6 now also.  So it begins!

Looks like it’ll be close to 70F.

Will feel like summer.

C3D6872E-363F-4827-96F4-3FB414818F04.png

 

  • Windy 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Definitely an eastward trend with the short range models. Could end up being advisory levels most places. 

Did you notice the 00z MM5-NAM, 3km were a bit faster with forward motion not weakening the low nearly as quickly as previous runs maintaining strengths around 958-960mb moving into Central Vancouver Island? That's a big change IF it verifies. C'MON!!!!

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I feel like wanting the storm to get any closer is futile wishcasting at this point. This area is not going to be affected and we won’t notice anything out of the ordinary. The only notable weather this location ever experiences anymore is heat.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I feel like wanting the storm to get any closer is futile wishcasting at this point. This area is not going to be affected and we won’t notice anything out of the ordinary. The only notable weather this location ever experiences anymore is heat.

Well, you live in the PCW now, not the PNW.

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10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like it’ll be close to 70F.

Will feel like summer.

C3D6872E-363F-4827-96F4-3FB414818F04.png

 

That warm spot is insane.  It must know where you live!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

And empty the shelves went! 

tenor.gif

I've been stopped by a herd of sheep a few times on the forest service road outside of Liberty.  That's exactly what it's like.  A solid sea of sheep which SLOWLY yields as you drive forward.  

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looking ahead... the GFS shows a little bit of rain for the Seattle area on Thursday and Friday.

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5616800.png

Wow!  October 2003 redux.  That makes a cold snap sometime in the Nov 5 to 15 range seem pretty plausible.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The gradients being shown on ECMWF are remarkably unimpressive.  Pretty shocking with such a strong low.  Part of the issue is the pressure is going to be so low over us also.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Did you notice the 00z MM5-NAM, 3km were a bit faster with forward motion not weakening the low nearly as quickly as previous runs maintaining strengths around 958-960mb moving into Central Vancouver Island? That's a big change IF it verifies. C'MON!!!!

What would they mean more winds for the central sound or just 20 to 40 gusts ?

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Stick a fork in this one guys.  It just isn't going to happen.

  • Weenie 5

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Stick a fork in this one guys.  It just isn't going to happen.

No offense, but weren't you touting a 42 low as excitingly chilly a week or two ago? I don't think anyone is expecting a major windstorm out of this-- but there is something to us enjoying some blustery fall weather coming to us courtesy of a historically powerful storm of our coast. Let us have our moment lol

  • Like 5

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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17 minutes ago, Requiem said:

No offense, but weren't you touting a 42 low as excitingly chilly a week or two ago? I don't think anyone is expecting a major windstorm out of this-- but there is something to us enjoying some blustery fall weather coming to us courtesy of a historically powerful storm of our coast. Let us have our moment lol

Jim is not a fan of the wind…

I would venture to guess that if that was a massive snow bomb off the coast he would be looking at the Yugoslavian model that shows the storm getting close to us and he would be all over it!!

And we are going to need his snow/cold enthusiasm here in a few Weeks!!! 

  • Like 6
  • lol 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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21 minutes ago, Requiem said:

No offense, but weren't you touting a 42 low as excitingly chilly a week or two ago? I don't think anyone is expecting a major windstorm out of this-- but there is something to us enjoying some blustery fall weather coming to us courtesy of a historically powerful storm of our coast. Let us have our moment lol

You have really matured on here quickly, well said!!

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  October 2003 redux.  That makes a cold snap sometime in the Nov 5 to 15 range seem pretty plausible.

There was snow 11/15/2003 in Beaverton! 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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45 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

She’s a beaut Clark! 

D762C0C1-6186-4521-8D8E-CE89CC11560A.jpeg

It is a gorgeous storm.

The east winds have started here with a gust to 15 so far.  There will probably be some gusts into the 30s here.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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