snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 Wow! The 0z GFS is much nicer with the month end cold snap. Much better opportunity for a hard frost and chilly Halloween, due to much less east wind. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 That cold strong east wind on 0z really warms my soul 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Wow! The 0z GFS is much nicer with the month end cold snap. Much better opportunity for a hard frost and chilly Halloween, due to much less east wind. Looks delightfully backdoor and quite breezy to me. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 hour ago, The Swamp said: it's not going to take much to blow down some of the old dead trees and ones loaded with wet leaves i expect this storm to over perform because nearly everyone on this here site is poo poo'ing it get your candles and flash lights ready gather up some canned goods and toilet paper get ready for a few days with out power I think places near the foothills in King County could get decent east winds from this. Places near the Sound may get some decent southerlies a bit later in the event, but the center just remains too far west for anything block buster IMO. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: Looks delightfully backdoor and quite breezy to me. It's delayed from pervious runs though. The initial cold surge is from the NW and N. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's delayed from pervious runs though. The initial cold surge is from the NW and N. Which runs? This one is a lot more backdoorsy than any other runs last 24 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 Nice looking setup centered around Nov 6 now also. So it begins! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Which runs? This one is a lot more backdoorsy than any other runs last 24 hours. I'm just talking about when the surface gradients become easterly. This run has a more sustained period of NW to N gradients which is much more favorable for cold temps in this area. That is reflected in the temps at months end on this run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 The 0z GFS is quite a bit colder for the Oct 29 to Nov 3 period than previous runs. Should be pretty crisp if this verifies. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 34 minutes ago, Requiem said: That cold strong east wind on 0z really warms my soul Yep I can't wait! PDX-DLS -10mb or so. 00z ECMWF in 6 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 Bright moon for a mostly cloudy night. it got up to 58 here today and back down to 49 now. It was a mostly cloudy day, but we only got .04 precip for the day and I’m not sure when that fell . It was a nice day. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Nice looking setup centered around Nov 6 now also. So it begins! Looks like it’ll be close to 70F. Will feel like summer. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 hours ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Definitely an eastward trend with the short range models. Could end up being advisory levels most places. Did you notice the 00z MM5-NAM, 3km were a bit faster with forward motion not weakening the low nearly as quickly as previous runs maintaining strengths around 958-960mb moving into Central Vancouver Island? That's a big change IF it verifies. C'MON!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 I feel like wanting the storm to get any closer is futile wishcasting at this point. This area is not going to be affected and we won’t notice anything out of the ordinary. The only notable weather this location ever experiences anymore is heat. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I feel like wanting the storm to get any closer is futile wishcasting at this point. This area is not going to be affected and we won’t notice anything out of the ordinary. The only notable weather this location ever experiences anymore is heat. Well, you live in the PCW now, not the PNW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Looks like it’ll be close to 70F. Will feel like summer. That warm spot is insane. It must know where you live! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said: And empty the shelves went! I've been stopped by a herd of sheep a few times on the forest service road outside of Liberty. That's exactly what it's like. A solid sea of sheep which SLOWLY yields as you drive forward. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 That is an insane amount of rain being shown next 24-48 hours for NorCal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Looking ahead... the GFS shows a little bit of rain for the Seattle area on Thursday and Friday. Wow! October 2003 redux. That makes a cold snap sometime in the Nov 5 to 15 range seem pretty plausible. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: That is an insane amount of rain being shown next 24-48 hours for NorCal. 00z GFS, ECMWF 2 Day Rainfall totals 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 The gradients being shown on ECMWF are remarkably unimpressive. Pretty shocking with such a strong low. Part of the issue is the pressure is going to be so low over us also. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: The gradients being shown on ECMWF are remarkably unimpressive. Pretty shocking with such a strong low. Part of the issue is the pressure is going to be so low over us also. Yep due to the trajectory/track of the low and weak high pressure in California. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Did you notice the 00z MM5-NAM, 3km were a bit faster with forward motion not weakening the low nearly as quickly as previous runs maintaining strengths around 958-960mb moving into Central Vancouver Island? That's a big change IF it verifies. C'MON!!!! What would they mean more winds for the central sound or just 20 to 40 gusts ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 Stick a fork in this one guys. It just isn't going to happen. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: What would they mean more winds for the central sound or just 20 to 40 gusts ? 35-45mph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Stick a fork in this one guys. It just isn't going to happen. No offense, but weren't you touting a 42 low as excitingly chilly a week or two ago? I don't think anyone is expecting a major windstorm out of this-- but there is something to us enjoying some blustery fall weather coming to us courtesy of a historically powerful storm of our coast. Let us have our moment lol 5 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Stick a fork in this one guys. It just isn't going to happen. Best put our focus on a transient kinda cool trough on 11/6. 1 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 17 minutes ago, Requiem said: No offense, but weren't you touting a 42 low as excitingly chilly a week or two ago? I don't think anyone is expecting a major windstorm out of this-- but there is something to us enjoying some blustery fall weather coming to us courtesy of a historically powerful storm of our coast. Let us have our moment lol Jim is not a fan of the wind… I would venture to guess that if that was a massive snow bomb off the coast he would be looking at the Yugoslavian model that shows the storm getting close to us and he would be all over it!! And we are going to need his snow/cold enthusiasm here in a few Weeks!!! 6 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 21 minutes ago, Requiem said: No offense, but weren't you touting a 42 low as excitingly chilly a week or two ago? I don't think anyone is expecting a major windstorm out of this-- but there is something to us enjoying some blustery fall weather coming to us courtesy of a historically powerful storm of our coast. Let us have our moment lol You have really matured on here quickly, well said!! 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Wow! October 2003 redux. That makes a cold snap sometime in the Nov 5 to 15 range seem pretty plausible. There was snow 11/15/2003 in Beaverton! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 My weather station is in agreement of something Big out there! “Falling rapidly “ 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 Lol, can’t sleep 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Stick a fork in this one guys. It just isn't going to happen. It’s going to happen as I’m going to it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 She’s a beaut Clark! 3 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 1 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 At 6z/11 PM The low was initialized at 949mb! 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 Decent pressure falls off the Oregon coast 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Buoy 46005 reporting 47 mph sustained, 67 mph gusts. Closest buoy I could find to storm center but pressure is 'only' 966mb to it's still a ways away. Edit: Woops, see Rob already got it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Buoy 46005 reporting 47 mph sustained, 67 mph gusts. Closest buoy I could find to storm center but pressure is 'only' 966mb so it's still a ways away. Edit: Woops, see Rob already got it. Only 300 NM west of Aberdeen. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 45 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: She’s a beaut Clark! It is a gorgeous storm. The east winds have started here with a gust to 15 so far. There will probably be some gusts into the 30s here. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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