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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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At this point we have some wind to deal with over the next couple of days, then a big AR event later in the week, and then the prospects for some colder weather during the second week of November.  The details on the latter are still sketchy, but the ensembles really like the idea of sharply falling WPO during week two.  Very often the first sign of GOA amplification on the way.

Pretty dynamic period we are in.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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In it's own way the storm looks nearly as awesome as a hurricane on the sat loop.  It's really tearing it up out there.  You can really see the juicy AR heading for CA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looking at cold ENSO years that had huge amounts of rain in October in Northern CA you have the following.

1924, 1950, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1970, 1973, 2010, and 2016.  The most notably wet were 1924, 1962, 2010, and 2016.

Some really great winters in that group.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Quite a rotation. A very well defined center of circulation, looks very much like a hurricane the last few frames. And an onslaught of rain into NorCal. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest-07-05_56Z-20211024_map_-35-1n-10-100.gif

That thing is a beast.  As much as some people wanted it to get closer I consider us very lucky it isn't going to.  I just saved that loop to my desk top.  Absolutely amazing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Serious question, my bottle of protein shake just exploded out of nowhere. The cap hit the ceiling hard. 

Did the pressure difference from the low cause my bottle to explode? It's been sitting out for a week so the pressure must've already been building inside, but I'm also wondering if the falling atmospheric pressure instigated it.

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Down to 987mb. Crazy pressure falls but no wind.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Didn't notice any wind when I got back home at hour ago. In fact there was some patchy fog across the eastside. I'm sure that will be scoured out rather quickly soon. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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1FB898EA-EBB1-4ECA-8B27-FE038156CDF5.thumb.png.e3f85cba05513fd84d9516054eccace2.png

Looking very wet Thursday up here.

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  • Rain 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol was awoken by what sounded like branches clanging together about 30 minutes ago probably 75 feet from my tent…was scared sh*tless since I had no idea what the sounds were. Came out of my tent with a knife ready to get in my car since I wasn’t sure if it was a person doing it and I point my my flashlight and see these big a** bucks beating on eachother with their antlers. Makes sense now! So I scolded them and they ran off lmao. 

I've heard that noise too before while camping! It's a bit alarming when you're half asleep. A lot of times when I hear things at night while camping, it is raccoons messing around looking for scraps of food. 

Pressure going down still - 978mb.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol was awoken by what sounded like branches clanging together about 30 minutes ago probably 75 feet from my tent…was scared sh*tless since I had no idea what the sounds were. Came out of my tent with a knife ready to get in my car since I wasn’t sure if it was a person doing it and I point my my flashlight and see these big a** bucks beating on eachother with their antlers. Makes sense now! So I scolded them and they ran off lmao. 

I freaked myself out while camping in the back of my truck in Alaska...swear I heard breathing right by me, in my head,it was a huge grizzly...turns out it was ME moving on the air mattress.  That was at 3 in the morning, could not get back to bed with my heart racing still haha

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:
IR Imagery
 
There's our mega-low, "bomb cyclone" whatever you wish to call it. It's still moving due east. As of 2 AM it was analyzed at a staggering 945mb(27.91 in) and may still be strengthening slightly. Unbelievable!
image.png
May be an image of map and sky

Amazing.

Only 3 more mb to break the record for that region of the Pacific. Makes me wonder what's in store this winter!

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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7 minutes ago, Geos said:

Amazing.

Only 3 more mb to break the record for that region of the Pacific. Makes me wonder what's in store this winter!

Let's think about this. In February we had a historic ice storm in the Willamette valley, then a historic, unprecedented regional(including BC, AB including an incredibly anomalous lightning outbreak) heat wave in June with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal, and now in mid-late October within a week two of the deepest lows we've ever seen with the second low for today possibly to become the strongest on record. I see no reason why these highly anomalous and historic events won't carry into the upcoming Fall and Winter months. We shall see. C'MON!!!!

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18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Let's think about this. In February we had a historic ice storm in the Willamette valley, then a historic, unprecedented regional(including BC, AB including an incredibly anomalous lightning outbreak) heat wave in June with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal, and now in mid-late October within a week two of the deepest lows we've ever seen with the second low for today possibly to become the strongest on record. I see no reason why these highly anomalous and historic events won't carry into the upcoming Fall and Winter months. We shall see. C'MON!!!!

I agree! Temperature has been warming up here with an easterly wind. Was 48 earlier, now 58. 

  • Windy 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol was awoken by what sounded like branches clanging together about 30 minutes ago probably 75 feet from my tent…was scared sh*tless since I had no idea what the sounds were. Came out of my tent with a knife ready to get in my car since I wasn’t sure if it was a person doing it and I point my my flashlight and see these big a** bucks beating on eachother with their antlers. Makes sense now! So I scolded them and they ran off lmao. 

Where are you camping?

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East wind is cranking here right now.    ECMWF shows the wind peaking out here this morning... by this afternoon it will be from the SE rather than E and less windy out here.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-5094800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-5120000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Radar shows it should be raining pretty hard here... but its completely dry with the east wind evaporating all the precip before it reaches the ground.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Radar shows it should be raining pretty hard here... but its completely dry with the east wind evaporating all the precip before it reaches the ground.

Same here. I’m sitting underneath some heavy echos but it’s drizzling here. 

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2 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

I freaked myself out while camping in the back of my truck in Alaska...swear I heard breathing right by me, in my head,it was a huge grizzly...turns out it was ME moving on the air mattress.  That was at 3 in the morning, could not get back to bed with my heart racing still haha

Yeah all sorts of scenarios were running through my head before I went out and checked it out. Was very relieved when I realized it was just a couple bucks being jerks. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest-07-14_51Z-20211024_map_-100-1n-5-100.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Don’t think we’ve gotten much rain here so far…probably just a couple hundredths. It has gotten a bit breezy though. 

0.40" since midnight here! 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest-07-14_51Z-20211024_map_-100-1n-5-100.gif

Just imagine if that thing wasn’t weakening heading straight for southern Vancouver island…good lord what a monster storm. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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What a bust. No wind, 0.16” of rain since midnight.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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