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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Me too!  

I’d really like to see a dry Halloween weekend…trying to get another camping trip out to the island with some friends this weekend. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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GEM is the best. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Definitely seeing some wind here today, looks like the peak at my hows was at 12:40am, but there have been several gusts right up there with it.  Its been kinda funny watching our resident hummingbird riding out the storm on a hanging decoration on our front porch.  It is getting just enough wind to sway and spin a little bit, but that little hummingbird is riding it like a champ.

 

Also, came across this on FB this morning....

IMG_2051.JPG

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Noticed this driving down to sumner this morning…was driving so I didn’t get a picture but it was a pretty unique lenticular show this morning. 

7666D280-48FF-440B-9595-63483A0DA1BE.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Big fan of the Euro. 😃

FWIW... the EPS mean does not support the ECMWF in the 7-10 day period (top) but the control run does (bottom).   Both would favor dry offshore flow here... the control run being stronger with the offshore flow.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5940800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-5940800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the EPS mean does not support the ECMWF in the 7-10 day period (top) but the control run does (bottom).   Both would favor dry offshore flow here... the control run being stronger with the offshore flow.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5940800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-5940800.png

Good thing California just got a whole bunch of rain/snow otherwise this upcoming pattern would have been an ugly fire situation once again.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

We’ve had 6 consecutive warmer than average winters. Safe bet to assume this will be #7.

I’ll cope somehow. 🤷

The good news is things will likely reverse in a few years as these warm winters tend to come in streaks bunchs so if history is any indacation this streak should be about to break sometime in the next few years perhaps the late 2020s 2030s we see a 1960s late 1970s  like progression start to take shape unless something really unusal is really going on.

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Looks like GFS wants to put Thursday's AR into the south Sound and Lewis County while the Euro positions it in the north Sound and gives the Willamette Valley close to 70 degree temps before going crazy with blocking and shutting off the jet. Looks like I'll be too far south to get anything from it but the Portland metro might get clipped if the south solution verifies.

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Wave of rain moved in about 15 minutes ago. Winds have been strong enough to knock out the power to more customers across the eastside. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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18z GFS looks more like a strong niño with that screaming STJ slamming CA with storm after storm.

Don’t often see a pattern like this during La Niña. Seems to be some -QBO element w/ the narrow EPAC HC.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z GFS looks more like a strong niño with that screaming STJ slamming CA with storm after storm.

Don’t often see a pattern like this during La Niña. Seems to be some -QBO element w/ the narrow EPAC HC.

18z? Doesn't seem like we are looking at the same model... 12z was wetter, was that what you meant? 18z looks a lot more climo...

gfs_apcpn_wus_48.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z GFS looks more like a strong niño with that screaming STJ slamming CA with storm after storm.

Don’t often see a pattern like this during La Niña. Seems to be some -QBO element w/ the narrow EPAC HC.

Huh?? There are literally no “storm after storm” heading into CA over the next 10 days on the 18z. NorCal is getting slightly swiped.

0A120451-E4B8-446F-9010-840568FB5EC4.png

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32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z? Doesn't seem like we are looking at the same model... 12z was wetter, was that what you meant? 18z looks a lot more climo...

gfs_apcpn_wus_48.png

That’s not climo at all.

Wetter than average across much of the SW US/4-corners region, dry in the north, potent STJ evident in the 500mb pattern.

1C73B9BF-1F65-4CFF-A570-D6611E8AEF6A.png

34973016-18CB-43D8-87E2-DD4D014030C8.png

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

You’re not looking w/ respect to climo.

Wetter than average across much of the SW US/4-corners region, dry in the north, potent STJ evident in the 500mb pattern.

1C73B9BF-1F65-4CFF-A570-D6611E8AEF6A.png

34973016-18CB-43D8-87E2-DD4D014030C8.png

 

That is still drier than normal in CA as well... the averages are much lower down there at this time of year.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Come on Phil. Admit you are misspoke. You said storm after storm... About a model run that shows no storms hitting California. LOL

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

That is still drier than normal in CA as well... the averages are much lower down there at this time of year.    

Exactly and I thought he was talking about Cali? Still looks drier than normal. Didn’t see any “storm after storm” 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Exactly and I thought he was talking about Cali? Still looks drier than normal. Didn’t see any “storm after storm” 

He literally said CA. I get the point though... But still... I think we were all initially confused. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Hawks game could be wet and breezy at times. Not anything like SF yesterday but look to have some intermittent heavy showers. 

B62A8663-DAD6-434F-B6FC-07D64035CF15.gif

Seems like the heavier showers get ripped apart as they move over the Sound and into Seattle... might be the rain shadow trying to develop but its not able to completely block the rain.    The rain has not looked very heavy in Seattle even when the stronger cells make it overhead.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Please take football banter to appropriate thread. Thank you. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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