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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Seems like the heavier showers get ripped apart as they move over the Sound and into Seattle... might be the rain shadow trying to develop but its not able to completely block the rain.    The rain has not looked very heavy in Seattle even when the stronger cells make it overhead.

Yeah. Kinda interesting to see as we head into the night time hours, these heavy showers could pop up overhead then. HRRR does show some heavy cells right over Seattle next several hours during the game.

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Just now, Cloud said:

Yeah. Kinda interesting to see as we head into the night time hours, these heavy showers could pop up overhead then. HRRR does show some heavy cells right over Seattle next several hours during the game.

I think main precip sheld is moving through now... the ECMWF appears to expand the rain shadow through the evening.    We will see.   The wind is a big factor in the game as well.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1635163200-1635195600-1635235200-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Come on Phil. Admit you are misspoke. You said storm after storm... About a model run that shows no storms hitting California. LOL

Jesus H Christ. I didn’t say anything about CA rainfall totals. You made that leap on your own.

I referenced the active STJ.

344B2DC4-38EF-47A9-8970-4C2E30A46418.gif

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17 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

How do they look for California?

An average amount of H2O molecules.

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You would think that storm after storm would result in higher than average.

Not if it stops raining mid-November. 😱

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Can’t wait to see all these storms slam CA 

  • Rain 2
  • Windy 1
  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It’s not any further north, it’s just weaker.

Actually both... 12Z run on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for Wednesday morning through Friday morning.   Big change for the Seattle area and South Sound for sure.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5508800.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5505200.png

  • Rain 1
  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually both... 12Z run on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for Wednesday morning through Friday morning.   Big change for the Seattle area and South Sound for sure.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5508800.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5505200.png

I’m in the blue! 

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  • Weenie 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually both... 12Z run on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for Wednesday morning through Friday morning.   Big change for the Seattle area and South Sound for sure.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5508800.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5505200.png

A lot more rain in the San Juan's.

Getting a few moderate showers this evening. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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0.17” so far today in Tacoma….2.68” so far this month. Sad the AR is weakened on the gfs but we’re doing ok on rainfall recently so oh well. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.17” so far today in Tacoma….2.68” so far this month. Sad the AR is weakened on the gfs but we’re doing ok on rainfall recently so oh well. 

SEA should be nearing 3” if not go over for next few days. As of 10/24, 2.54”. Amazingly, it still looks like could end up below normal (3.91”) for the month. 

  • Rain 1
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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Should almost be as good as watching the Huskies disembowel the Ducks in a couple weeks.

So what you are saying is neither will happen. 

  • Sad 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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One thing I will say is I hate the pattern we are in right now.  Anytime we have mild temps with a cold air mass over us I can't stand it.  On the other hand wet weather in October is often a good sign going forward, and we had plenty of this October 2016.

On another note...Yesterday's storm ended up being quite impressive in some ways.  At Cape Disappointment for example their first gust of 60+ happened at 2pm yesterday and the last such gust was at 9am today.  An incredibly long period of strong winds at places like that.  Their peak gust was an impressive 74MPH.  Even SEA ended up pretty windy for a long period of time.

It does appear a brief chilly period is pretty possible mainly in the Oct 29 thru Nov 2 period.  The 12z ECMWF had some places going well below freezing on a number of mornings.  I think this area will probably get screwed by east winds though.  Probably still one cold night in the foothills area before the east wind sets in.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Sacramento official 24 hours totals yesterday was 5.44”.  Broke the record from 1880. Unreal. SEA’s wettest day all time was 5.02”

Wow!  We continue to evidence the atmosphere is still in an extremely abnormal state.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The CPC winter outlook has actually gotten better.  They have included the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains in the below normal area which means things are more likely to get continental.  They have WA in the third shade of blue for J,F,M now.

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  • Snow 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The CPC winter outlook has actually gotten better.  They have included the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains in the below normal area which means things are more likely to get continental.  They have WA in the third shade of blue for J,F,M now.

I'd still like to see us score something meaningful in Dec./Jan. 

The late season stuff have been great but I would love to see something in the heart of winter.

Not to take anything away from this outlook, just my personal preference. 

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