snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: I'd still like to see us score something meaningful in Dec./Jan. The late season stuff have been great but I would love to see something in the heart of winter. Not to take anything away from this outlook, just my personal preference. The D,J,F map is good too, but not quite as nice as the J,F,M. Most models continue to like January. I think we will get a nice event somewhere in the mid Nov - Dec period as well. All I know is I want some cold weather. The stuff in the first half of October made me want to see more. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 Thurs/Friday is quite wet for the Puget Sound and the Seattle area on the Euro. Should push the monthly totals to above normal. Then we go onto a period of dry stretch to start out Nov. Can't complain. Some nice chilly temps as well. in the upper 30s for lows first week of Nov. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: Thurs/Friday is quite wet for the Puget Sound and the Seattle area on the Euro. Should push the monthly totals to above normal. Then we go onto a period of dry stretch to start out Nov. Can't complain. Some nice chilly temps as well. in the upper 30s It's not like we really need the rain here anyway. Let places south have it. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 Another day, another 2.38" of rain, no biggie. And we had some sun breaks a few times!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 One thing I really like about the CPC outlook is there is no hint of a raging +EPO being shown on the anomaly maps. I think that is the biggest thing that could screw it up this winter. 6 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 The Euro has been remarkably consistent showing 3-4" of rain up here by Friday. Meanwhile the GFS has been predicting only about an 1" for the rest of the week (in a strong rainshadow) with wild swings in where it thinks the atmospheric river will hit. I guess we'll know by Friday which one is right. 2 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: One thing I really like about the CPC outlook is there is no hint of a raging +EPO being shown on the anomaly maps. I think that is the biggest thing that could screw it up this winter. I remember 2005-06. We spent the first three weeks of December below freezing with snowcover. After that period of time, we abruptly warmed up, the snow melted, and it rained all January long. It was a +EPO rainfest. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow drift said: I remember 2005-06. We spent the first three weeks of December below freezing with snowcover. After that period of time, we abruptly warmed up, the snow melted, and it rained all January long. It was a +EPO rainfest. Let’s go torchy alaska 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 12 minutes ago, snow drift said: I remember 2005-06. We spent the first three weeks of December below freezing with snowcover. After that period of time, we abruptly warmed up, the snow melted, and it rained all January long. It was a +EPO rainfest. Might not be a horrible analog. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 EC ensemble Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 2 hours ago, Cloud said: Let’s go torchy alaska I like your idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 2 hours ago, Deweydog said: Might not be a horrible analog. I suppose it's a possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 38 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: EC ensemble Going back to onshore flow in the 2nd week of November 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 3 hours ago, Skagit Weather said: The Euro has been remarkably consistent showing 3-4" of rain up here by Friday. Meanwhile the GFS has been predicting only about an 1" for the rest of the week (in a strong rainshadow) with wild swings in where it thinks the atmospheric river will hit. I guess we'll know by Friday which one is right. FWIW the Euro just buttfücked the GFS w/ the nor’easter here. The GFS was nowhere close even a few days out. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: EC ensemble If only this STJ regime were happening in Jan/Feb. Would be a ton of snow here. But alas. I’m sure come winter we’ll be back to Baffin vortex and northern stream dominance. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: If only this STJ regime were happening in Jan/Feb. Would be a ton of snow here. But alas. I’m sure come winter we’ll be back to Baffin vortex and northern stream dominance. Feels persistent like our heat and fire weather of late. Time for me to turn in. Having seizures. Looking forward to the fallback so the GFS kicks off at 2AM instead of 3AM. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Feels persistent like our heat and fire weather of late. Time for me to turn in. Having seizures. Looking forward to the fallback so the GFS kicks off at 2AM instead of 3AM. I’m sorry man. Sending u my best vibes. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 @Phil What say you on the SPV this winter? Lots of NWPac ridging on the extended ensemble suites, which as I understand only reduces pressure on the vortex. Makes sense that ensembles have it strengthening too. You think come later in December it could weaken w/ some Waffle-zombie? Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 24 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: @Phil What say you on the SPV this winter? Lots of NWPac ridging on the extended ensemble suites, which as I understand only reduces pressure on the vortex. Makes sense that ensembles have it strengthening too. You think come later in December it could weaken w/ some Waffle-zombie? If you’re looking for arctic cold mid winter, it might actually be preferable to have +WPO (and/or +PNA) dominate Nov/Dec, since that pattern opens conduits for +WAFz and a subsequent W1 response by the SPV. Given the -QBO, we’ll have a more favorable deposition of momentum (vs +QBO) should the SPV take a body blow. There *are* other conduits to blocking and/or SSW that don’t require an unfavorable pattern for the west, but that is the most efficient one. We saw it in Nov/Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Jan 2018, and Jan 2021. In the latter three cases it occurred so late in the winter the benefits didn’t show up until February. In 2016 it was a tad early and weaker (no actual SSW) but that was a Niña/+QBO which can amplify the Aleutian/GOA High very easily. Those Niña/+QBO years (thru 30-50mb) almost always perform in the PNW, regardless of strat dynamics..1995/96, 2008/09, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2016/17, 2020/21 were all Niña/+QBO. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: If you’re looking for arctic cold mid winter, it might actually be preferable to have +WPO (and/or +PNA) dominate Nov/Dec, since that pattern opens conduits for +WAFz and a subsequent W1 response by the SPV. Given the -QBO, we’ll have a more favorable deposition of momentum (vs +QBO) should the SPV take a body blow. There *are* other conduits to blocking and/or SSW that don’t require an unfavorable pattern for the west, but that is the most efficient one. We saw it in Nov/Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Jan 2018, and Jan 2021. In the latter three cases it occurred so late in the winter the benefits didn’t show up until February. In 2016 it was a tad early and weaker (no actual SSW) but that was a Niña/+QBO which can amplify the Aleutian/GOA High very easily. Those Niña/+QBO years (thru 30-50mb) almost always perform in the PNW, regardless of strat dynamics..1995/96, 2008/09, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2016/17, 2020/21 were all Niña/+QBO. So the deck is a little stacked against us now? This feels like a progression that ends up cold by late November or December to me. I read that a Nino developing once we get into late spring is pretty likely... do you agree? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 7 hours ago, Deweydog said: Might not be a horrible analog. That winter sucked up here. Good morning! .02” so far on the day. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 8 hours ago, snow_wizard said: One thing I will say is I hate the pattern we are in right now. Anytime we have mild temps with a cold air mass over us I can't stand it. On the other hand wet weather in October is often a good sign going forward, and we had plenty of this October 2016. On another note...Yesterday's storm ended up being quite impressive in some ways. At Cape Disappointment for example their first gust of 60+ happened at 2pm yesterday and the last such gust was at 9am today. An incredibly long period of strong winds at places like that. Their peak gust was an impressive 74MPH. Even SEA ended up pretty windy for a long period of time. It does appear a brief chilly period is pretty possible mainly in the Oct 29 thru Nov 2 period. The 12z ECMWF had some places going well below freezing on a number of mornings. I think this area will probably get screwed by east winds though. Probably still one cold night in the foothills area before the east wind sets in. Your cold October is slipping away. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 2020-21 was a total crap winter outside of 3-4 days. About as mild a winter as they come outside a few days in February. December/January have been abysmal since December 2017. I have a really hard time believing we will have another complete torch for December/January. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 19 minutes ago, MossMan said: That winter sucked up here. Good morning! .02” so far on the day. Back at you…Good opening !! Drippy soggy out with .07 in my bucket. 48* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 8 hours ago, Deweydog said: Might not be a horrible analog. Dang it. I wish you had brought that one up BEFORE I made my winter forecast. lol. Whenever I get excited about an upcoming winter it is because I forgotten about how many ways our winters can bomb. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 It looks like Portland might slip into the southern periphery of the weak atmospheric river later this week. That's the trend at least. You won't here me complaining if that happens. I would lose my bet with @RentonHillTC, but it would be worth it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: It looks like Portland might slip into the southern periphery of the weak atmospheric river later this week. That's the trend at least. You won't here me complaining if that happens. I would lose my bet with @RentonHillTC, but it would be worth it. Portland has performed really well compared to Salem/Eugene the past week. We've done decent up here too. PDX will end October above average, Salem and Eugene may be a little below. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 52F and sunny when I checked last hour. Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 This morning it really looks like those early winter mornings. It is currently 46F and misty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 2020-21 was a total crap winter outside of 3-4 days. About as mild a winter as they come outside a few days in February. December/January have been abysmal since December 2017. I have a really hard time believing we will have another complete torch for December/January. 2 duds in a row here. Not a single interesting day in the last 2 "winters" 3 duds in a row is pretty unusual. Would be the first time it's happened here since the 1996-2003 dark ages. And at this rate we will be almost warmer and most likely drier this month in this location...again. The only interesting weather we have experienced in this location since 2-25-19 has been heat and fire weather in the summer. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 2 duds in a row here. Not a single interesting day in the last 2 "winters" 3 duds in a row is pretty unusual. Would be the first time it's happened here since the 1996-2003 dark ages. And at this rate we will be almost warmer and most likely drier this month in this location...again. The only interesting weather we have experienced in this location since 2-25-19 has been heat and fire weather in the summer. I would be pissed too if I were in your shoes. Each of the last two winters had some snow and cold here. In fact every winter from 2016-17 to present has had some decent stuff. I'm feeling a region wide event this time. Historically a major AR in CA during a La Nina in October is a very good sign. If it makes you feel any better I just looked at the winters of 1937-38 through 1947-48 for Eugene and Salem and that period was absolutely horrendous for both cities (plus pretty much everywhere in the Western Lowlands) with the exception of one winter...1942-43. In fact EUG only had 2.3 inches of snow in a 5 winter span (1937-38 through 1941-42). We all know what happened in the 10 winters following 1947-48. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: So the deck is a little stacked against us now? This feels like a progression that ends up cold by late November or December to me. I read that a Nino developing once we get into late spring is pretty likely... do you agree? I think the cards have yet to be stacked, minus the first few. Much of the midwinter outcome may hinge on what happens in late Nov/early Dec, and there are probably unpredictable/unstable equilibria involved there. As for ENSO, similar deal. What happens midwinter is key there. But I’d hedge towards neutral/weak ENSO for 2022/23 at the moment. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 Last winter was definitely the worst since 2014-15 here. December has been a complete waste since 2017, and really 2016 here, 17' was cold, but we haven't had a decent snow in December since 2016. At least January 2020 and 21' saw some decent snowfalls despite their overall warmth. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Last winter was definitely the worst since 2014-15 here. December has been a complete waste since 2017, and really 2016 here, 17' was cold, but we haven't had a decent snow in December since 2016. At least January 2020 and 21' saw some decent snowfalls despite their overall warmth. Interestingly during the period where January was king we had very few good Decembers here. It was all about Jan and Feb with the occasional great December. We have to get out of the January doldrums eventually. The models like that month this winter. We shall see. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Your cold October is slipping away. It will end up below normal regardless, but not as good as it could have been. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Interestingly during the period where January was king we had very few good Decembers here. It was all about Jan and Feb with the occasional great December. We have to get out of the January doldrums eventually. The models like that month this winter. We shall see. I would says December's weren't great in the late 40s through the 60s, but we had some pretty decent December events. At least down here I wouldn't say December wasn't any worse during that period here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 9 hours ago, Cloud said: The D,J,F and J,F,M maps are much better. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: I would says December's weren't great in the late 40s through the 60s, but we had some pretty decent December events. At least down here I wouldn't say December wasn't any worse during that period here. I was just making the point that the winters have been December heavy from 1983 through 2017. Many cold ones in there. Even in the 19th century cold Decembers were much more limited. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 As for the QBO...as of the last update I saw the minus anoms still hadn't reached the 50mb level. One thing for D**n sure is the -QBO will be much weaker than winters like 2007-08. I think Phil might be placing too much emphasis on it. Just my opinion. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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