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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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GFS still toying with the idea of another nice storm for CA the first week of November. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_40.png

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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If the GFS is to be believed this weekend will be perfect leaf turning weather with cold / clear nights and cool / sunny days.  I'm skeptical of the low max temps it's showing, but who knows.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If the GFS is to be believed this weekend will be perfect leaf turning weather with cold / clear nights and cool / sunny days.  I'm skeptical of the low max temps it's showing, but who knows.

Leaves turned out pretty decent here this year. I’d say pretty close to 2019. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Leaves turned out pretty decent here this year. I’d say pretty close to 2019. 

Agreed. They have been great down here. A bit of a later peak than usual. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 hours ago, snow drift said:

I remember 2005-06. We spent the first three weeks of December below freezing with snowcover. After that period of time, we abruptly warmed up, the snow melted, and it rained all January long. It was a +EPO rainfest.

At least for observed 2005 is a pretty poor match to October this year.  Northern CA was direr than normal and the month was a torch in the Western Lowlands.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If the GFS is to be believed this weekend will be perfect leaf turning weather with cold / clear nights and cool / sunny days.  I'm skeptical of the low max temps it's showing, but who knows.

I don't see too many green trees left... obviously as you reach the end of October its more about the trees going bare than starting to turn colors.  Good leaf turning weather seems more like a mid to late September thing.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Leaves turned out pretty decent here this year. I’d say pretty close to 2019. 

The cottonwoods still have a good shot at greatness this year.  They have gotten off to a very good start here, but need one more round of clear weather with cold nights to finish it.  Normally they turn kind of a rusty brown here, but this year gold and yellow so far, and early.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We have a lot of maple and vine maple up here, which show great color, but unfortunately also a lot of Alders, which are horrible for color. Their leaves don't really turn. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Agreed. They have been great down here. A bit of a later peak than usual. 

They are about a week early here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have a lot of maple and vine maple up here, which show great color, but unfortunately also a lot of Alders, which are horrible for color. Their leaves don't really turn. 

The Oregon Oaks are a big disappointment for color as well.  Most trees in the oak family turn brilliant red, but not those.

We have a lot of broadleaf maple which turn pretty good.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The cottonwoods still have a good shot at greatness this year.  They have gotten off to a very good start here, but need one more round of clear weather with cold nights to finish it.  Normally they turn kind of a rusty brown here, but this year gold and yellow so far, and early.

I have never seen cottonwoods show "great" fall color... maybe you have lots of cottonwoods there because it seems to be the tree to track.   They are sort of incidental to fall color in the Snoqualmie Valley... never the most interesting.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

They are about a week early here.

I have a picture I took just above Silverton on October 12, 2013. The maples are in full peak colors in the picture. It's a nice frame of reference for subsequent years. 2013 had the best color here of any year I can remember. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have a lot of maple and vine maple up here, which show great color, but unfortunately also a lot of Alders, which are horrible for color. Their leaves don't really turn. 

Alders are the absolute worst for fall color.    Our alders are still green but will eventually will just go bare without any fanfare.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't see too many green trees left... obviously as you reach the end of October its more about the trees going bare than starting to turn colors.  Good leaf turning weather seems more like a mid to late September thing.  

Yeah....I was mainly thinking of the cottonwoods.  For those who aren't aware they can turn amazing given the right circumstances.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I have never seen cottonwoods show "great" fall color... maybe you have lots of cottonwoods there because it seems to be the tree to track.   They are sort of incidental to fall color in the Snoqualmie Valley... never the most interesting.  

Cottonwoods don't have good color around here either. When I was in Nebraska a few weeks ago the color was starting to peak along the Platte River, beautiful. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have a picture I took just above Silverton on October 12, 2013. The maples are in full peak colors in the picture. It's a nice frame of reference for subsequent years. 2013 had the best color here of any year I can remember. 

Yeah... Facebook has been reminding me of all my fall color pics over the last 10 years.   This year was pretty late.   I think we hit the peak this past weekend but won't really have any sunny days to enjoy at peak.   I assume it will be past peak by this weekend with more rain and wind ahead.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some pretty zonal flow on the long range GFS. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Alders are the absolute worst for fall color.    Our alders are still green but will eventually will just go bare without any fanfare.   

If they are lucky they can go pale yellow on a good year.  Very sad.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2020-21 was a total crap winter outside of 3-4 days. About as mild a winter as they come outside a few days in February. 
 

December/January have been abysmal since December 2017. I have a really hard time believing we will have another complete torch for December/January.

It was hot trash with another warm December and January. 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cottonwoods don't have good color around here either. When I was in Nebraska a few weeks ago the color was starting to peak along the Platte River, beautiful. 

17 years here now... and at best the cottonwoods in my area turn a pale yellow and then go bare in a few days.  Some years its straight to brown then bare.    I have never seen them put on an impressive show anywhere around here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cottonwoods don't have good color around here either. When I was in Nebraska a few weeks ago the color was starting to peak along the Platte River, beautiful. 

They are absolutely brilliant in Central WA as well.  Once a decade or so they can turn very good here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

17 years here now... and at best the cottonwoods in my area turn a pale yellow and then go bare in a few days.  Some years its straight to brown then bare.    I have never seen them put on an impressive show anywhere around here.   

I could be totally wrong, but I think there is a difference between poplars and cottonwoods. My Dad's farm has some very large cottonwoods and they were slightly better than Alders for fall color. We have a ton of cottonwoods along the Willamette where my office is and the same is true. The trees out in Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana that had brilliant fall colors were either a different/smaller type of cottonwood or a poplar, but not the same exact same tree. Probably a difference there. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I can see why 2013 would have been great for color.  Lots of dry weather and cold nights in October.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I could be totally wrong, but I think there is a difference between poplars and cottonwoods. My Dad's farm has some very large cottonwoods and they were slightly better than Alders for fall color. We have a ton of cottonwoods along the Willamette where my office is and the same is true. The trees out in Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana that had brilliant fall colors were either a different/smaller type of cottonwood or a poplar, but not the same exact same tree. Probably a difference there. 

I think it's all about the weather.  In Central WA they are the same type of cottonwoods as here and yet they turn very bright.  They need sunshine, dry, and cold nights.  I have some pics somewhere on this computer I'll try to find them.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some pretty zonal flow on the long range GFS. 

It's actually a progressive pattern and goes back to ridging again pretty quick.  Alternating troughs and ridges can bring some pretty enjoyable fall weather.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it's all about the weather.  In Central WA they are the same type of cottonwoods as here and yet they turn very bright.  They need sunshine, dry, and cold nights.  I have some pics somewhere on this computer I'll try to find them.

Yeah... our cottonwoods just get daily rain so it's pretty hard for them to put on a show.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Went out and took a couple pics... lots of alders here which are still greenish and then will turn brown and just go bare.    Cottonwoods in the background in second pic are starting to turn yellow.    In most years they were already mostly bare by this point so they are running quite late this year.  

20211026_101911.jpg

20211026_101954.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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November is easily my least favorite month up here. Dark, dreary, rarely any cold or snow. Kind of like January in the valley. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well I'll be dipped.  I was doing some quick research on black cottonwoods and broadleaf maples and found that maple syrup can be made from broadleaf maple and is actually as sweet as the stuff made from sugar maples.  Just a slightly different flavor according to the article.  Another odd thing with cottonwoods is scientists have chosen that as one of the best trees on the planet to perform genome studies on.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 minutes ago, snow drift said:

The first three weeks of December 2005 were perfect. It couldn't have been nicer. 

We had some snow followed by a long / cold inversion and then a ridiculous wind event where winds gusted to 60 for two straight days.  Also a major Arctic blast in February, although over here it was mainly just insanely low 850s and a few days of decently cold weather.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

November is easily my least favorite month up here. Dark, dreary, rarely any cold or snow. Kind of like January in the valley. 

November can really have crazy exceptions though.  We have had some cold / snowy ones up here at least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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