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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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Not sure why the color would be late this this year when we had the coldest first half of October since 1990.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why the color would be late this this year when we had the coldest first half of October since 1990.

There are other factors involved.    For example... there has been no below freezing weather here.    Our roses and dahlias are still blooming like crazy right now.    And we got a decent amount of rain in August and September.   

The years in which the trees turned much earlier than this year were often drier in August and September.     I am speaking only for my area.   But the color has definitely been later than normal up here.     We had significant late summer rain and have avoided any below freezing weather to this point.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We had some snow followed by a long / cold inversion and then a ridiculous wind event where winds gusted to 60 for two straight days.  Also a major Arctic blast in February, although over here it was mainly just insanely low 850s and a few days of decently cold weather.

No doubt, February 2006 had an interesting Arctic blast with lots of wind. Overall, the winter of 2005-06 was a turd sandwich made with two slices of bread from the finest French baquette. The filling was a pungent yet decadent morsel of the highest quality poodle excrement, which was harvested fresh from the streets of Paris and flown par avion to our beloved continent for our eating enjoyment.

images (1).jpeg

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

November can really have crazy exceptions though.  We have had some cold / snowy ones up here at least.

Yeah, the year before I moved up here had a major snow event in November. You may remember 2010. We actually had about 1" of snow down in Silverton with that one. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, snow drift said:

No doubt, February 2006 had an interesting Arctic blast with lots of wind. Overall, the winter of 2005-06 was a turd sandwich made with two slices of bread from the finest French baquette. The filling was a pungent yet decadent morsel of the highest quality poodle excrement, which was harvested fresh from the streets of Paris and flown par avion to our beloved continent for our eating enjoyment.

images (1).jpeg

Living in the Willamette Valley we were a little south and east to get snow with the December event PDX and even Salem got a piece of (Silverton can be warm nose central.), our biggest snow was an inch of slop in March. 

  • Snow 1
  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We're at 2" rain this month in Klamath Falls. Interesting too that Medford had about the same October rainfall; normally it's wetter at the NWS office. 

246226783_291885752754046_5725168111259868448_n.jpg

247644203_291885746087380_2725949094697966915_n.jpg

  • Rain 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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So done with this boring-a$$ location.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Living in the Willamette Valley we were a little south and east to get snow with the December event PDX and even Salem got a piece of (Silverton can be warm nose central.), our biggest snow was an inch of slop in March. 

February had a nice event, and the first three weeks of December were cold. January was a mess. I felt like the bull during a bullfight. I thought I might gore the matador, but I ended up on the menu at a local tapas bar in Madrid. We got evicted from our mansion in late December. By January we had taken up residence in a dilapidated outhouse nearby with "warm Pacific storms" scrawled cryptically on its door. February saw our luck change once again, and this time for the better. We found a nice little apartment and we watched some late season snowfall through its windows.

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Living in the Willamette Valley we were a little south and east to get snow with the December event PDX and even Salem got a piece of (Silverton can be warm nose central.), our biggest snow was an inch of slop in March. 

There have also been events where it rains up here and it's all snow there simultaneously. 

 

  • Snow 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I remember leaving my window open during the 05-06 winter and it got cold AF some of those nights.

  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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October has been trending anemic up until now. But look at those 3 in a row from 2014-2016 all ending wet.

2021 - 2.00" (so far)
2020 - 0.06"
2019 - 0.39"
2018 - 0.41"
2017 - 0.47"
2016 - 2.48"
2015 - 1.01"
2014 - 2.21"

  • Rain 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

October has been trending anemic up until now. But look at those 3 in a row from 2014-2016 all ending wet.

2021 - 2.00" (so far)
2020 - 0.06"
2019 - 0.39"
2018 - 0.41"
2017 - 0.47"
2016 - 2.48"
2015 - 1.01"
2014 - 2.21"

Spokane has recorded .76 inches of precipitation through 10/25. Spokane Valley has recorded .62 inches.

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19 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Spokane has recorded .76 inches of precipitation through 10/25. Spokane Valley has recorded .62 inches.

What's the most you've seen in mid-Fall there?

I think we have had wetter ones than 2016 down here but 3" territory is pretty rare.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12Z ECMWF definitely shows systems diving south into Oregon and CA next week and bypassing WA for the most part.    This is rainfall totals from Sunday to Friday...

ecmwf-deterministic-west-precip_120hr_inch-6113600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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57 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, the year before I moved up here had a major snow event in November. You may remember 2010. We actually had about 1" of snow down in Silverton with that one. 

I think Jim said the November 2010 arctic front was one of his favorite weather events in many years. The combination of 60 mph wind, heavy snow, and extreme cold made it the most intense I’ve ever experienced for sure.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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At least according to the CPC analogs it would seem 1970 is emerging as the best match to this year.  It is coming up as an analog regardless of what type of pattern the models are projecting.  That one is certainly high on my list, because it also matches the current base state and had much of the observed weather we have seen recently.   Right now I think the 1970, 1984, 2007 combo is the way to go.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow drift said:

No doubt, February 2006 had an interesting Arctic blast with lots of wind. Overall, the winter of 2005-06 was a turd sandwich made with two slices of bread from the finest French baquette. The filling was a pungent yet decadent morsel of the highest quality poodle excrement, which was harvested fresh from the streets of Paris and flown par avion to our beloved continent for our eating enjoyment.

images (1).jpeg

Good way to put it.  As I mentioned earlier 2005 simply doesn't fit the observed weather we have been witnessing though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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22 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I think Jim said the November 2010 arctic front was one of his favorite weather events in many years. The combination of 60 mph wind, heavy snow, and extreme cold made it the most intense I’ve ever experienced for sure.

That was a dandy here.  7 inches of snow, blowing snow, snow falling at a temp of 22 (which matches Dec 2008).  After that it fell to 8 degrees the following night.  The sad thing is that night was only clear for half of it.  Had it remained clear it would have easily dropped to 3 or 4 IMBY.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Sacramento is the new Seattle?

Historically speaking CA getting all of these AR events is an excellent sign for our winter.  Some of our coldest winters are a sheit show of rain down there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At least according to the CPC analogs it would seem 1970 is emerging as the best match to this year.  It is coming up as an analog regardless of what type of pattern the models are projecting.  That one is certainly high on my list, because it also matches the current base state and had much of the observed weather we have seen recently.   Right now I think the 1970, 1984, 2007 combo is the way to go.

No 2017?

A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

No 2017?

That one hasn't really crossed my mind.  I'll take a look at it.  That winter had it's moments for sure.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hopefully many more blocks like this to come this winter.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.thumb.png.76bbf6f008a4b0d925663220f71afb79.png

But more to the west.  About 10 degrees west and that would be close to what brought the snow on Christmas 2017.  I'm just not seeing this winter being endless zonal flow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

If you’re looking for arctic cold mid winter, it might actually be preferable to have +WPO (and/or +PNA) dominate Nov/Dec, since that pattern opens conduits for +WAFz and a subsequent W1 response by the SPV. Given the -QBO, we’ll have a more favorable deposition of momentum (vs +QBO) should the SPV take a body blow.

There *are* other conduits to blocking and/or SSW that don’t require an unfavorable pattern for the west, but that is the most efficient one.

We saw it in Nov/Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Jan 2018, and Jan 2021. In the latter three cases it occurred so late in the winter the benefits didn’t show up until February.

In 2016 it was a tad early and weaker (no actual SSW) but that was a Niña/+QBO which can amplify the Aleutian/GOA High very easily.

Those Niña/+QBO years (thru 30-50mb) almost always perform in the PNW, regardless of strat dynamics..1995/96, 2008/09, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2016/17, 2020/21 were all Niña/+QBO.

In fact in contary to most thoughts the Nina west qbo cases can be good very good winter patterns coast to coast the same with El nino East qbo combinations.

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS is basically a zonal-fest after a brief break this weekend... no cold weather in sight.   

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-6545600.png

Fine with me. Let's get it out of the way now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

But more to the west.  About 10 degrees west and that would be close to what brought the snow on Christmas 2017.  I'm just not seeing this winter being endless zonal flow.

Probably because it’s extraordinarily rare. 

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1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

I think Jim said the November 2010 arctic front was one of his favorite weather events in many years. The combination of 60 mph wind, heavy snow, and extreme cold made it the most intense I’ve ever experienced for sure.

November 2010 was a high quality event. That winter was all high quality events or nothing.

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2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

November 2010 was a high quality event. That winter was all high quality events or nothing.

2010-11 was a decent winter. The cold snap the end of December into early January was actually pretty decent. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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