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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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9 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Zonal is the most likely scenario. Westerlies are the de facto regime.

Not really.  Blocking happens nearly every winter.  Even 2007-08 had a period of cold and dry weather.  We also have the lingering effects of the deep solar min going for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2010-11 was a decent winter. The cold snap the end of December into early January was actually pretty decent. 

And we just narrowly missed a huge event in January.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Probably because it’s extraordinarily rare. 

There certainly is that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The end of the EPS is interesting.  It has anomalous low pressure over the northern GOA / Eastern Aleutians beginning to retrograde to a favorable position to throw up a block out there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

That applies to the vast majority of winters.

As we all know a Nina has a tendency to favor above normal heights over the GOA though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF definitely shows systems diving south into Oregon and CA next week and bypassing WA for the most part.    This is rainfall totals from Sunday to Friday...

ecmwf-deterministic-west-precip_120hr_inch-6113600.png

They need it more than us still. Have been doing pretty good on rainfall here in western WA. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, mtep said:

Today honestly feels more gusty here than it did Sunday or yesterday overall

Opposite down here…Sunday and Monday were borderline windy at times. Today’s decently breezy but not too bad. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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5 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It looks like Portland might slip into the southern periphery of the weak atmospheric river later this week. That's the trend at least. You won't here me complaining if that happens. I would lose my bet with @RentonHillTC, but it would be worth it.

18z NAM and ICON shifting back north again. 

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

The Thunderstorms there will be much stronger and frequent over there and of course the winters much colder than the PAC NW. 

image.thumb.png.26ccd58e442f974f04e6590e7643655a.png

 

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

Wow, big change. I didn't realize Sioux Falls was as large at it is (over 175,000 people). Guess it wouldn't be as hard to find a decent job there as some places in the "flyover" states.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, big change. I didn't realize Sioux Falls was as large at it is (over 175,000 people). Guess it wouldn't be as hard to find a decent job there as some places in the "flyover" states.

175,000 is pretty shocking actually.  I had no idea.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Rainstorm420 said:

The Thunderstorms there will be much stronger and frequent over there and of course the winters much colder than the PAC NW. 

image.thumb.png.26ccd58e442f974f04e6590e7643655a.png

 

Pretty impressive numbers.  Amazing how many people get fed up with this climate and leave on this forum.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pedestrian record highs, though...

Yeah....those 94 degree highs in October are a dime a dozen.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

The weird thing is when I lived in Cle Elum for a couple of years I had all the snow I could want and yet was bummed when I heard about a big snowstorm here.  It is special here when it happens.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

Wow!   That is basically Minnesota.   But the SW corner of Minnesota does not have as consistent snow cover as the northern and eastern parts of the state.    Also not many trees down there...its basically wide open plains outside of the cities.   

I think you will love the climate overall since you seem to really like seasonal extremes.    Guaranteed cold and snow and guaranteed warm/hot summers with lots of thunderstorms.       

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Finally an overcast day! Looks like a high around 50 today.

IMG_2861.JPG

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IMG_2866.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Some trees still holding out here! But others are not so lucky. 

IMG_2876.JPG

IMG_2888.JPG

IMG_2918.JPG

IMG_2908.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty impressive numbers.  Amazing how many people get fed up with this climate and leave on this forum.

Lol I don't think most of the ones that leave do because they're fed up with the climate.

Actually, considering how mobile people are these days, I think it's kind of remarkable how many long term PNW residents there are here.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I went to Sioux Falls, SD last year, very very very nice city. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I went to Sioux Falls, SD last year, very very very nice city. 

He is going to experience some wicked blizzards and thunderstorms!  

Maybe start cheering for the Vikings and Twins as well. 😀

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

100%. 

In places where it's more normal to get significant snowfall, or have snow on the ground for months on end, I would have to imagine it gets to a point of "just being another snowstorm". Where as here even a 2-4 inch storm creates a certain buzz and atmosphere (not only on the forum) that is pretty contagious and fun to experience. 

If we do end up going with this move, which I'd put at about 90% right now, I will definitely miss the hubub of a good 'ol PNW snowstorm. 

I have the perfect going away gift…A massive Dakota’s arctic blast and snow drifts as high as a motorhome, right before you leave!! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

Best of luck on selling and making that move! 

That does sound cold, 21 is my January avg low. I haven't checked real estate lately in SD but hopefully not as expensive as the northwest. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow!   That is basically Minnesota.   But the SW corner of Minnesota does not have as consistent snow cover as the northern and eastern parts of the state.    Also not many trees down there...its basically wide open plains outside of the cities.   

I think you will love the climate overall since you seem to really like seasonal extremes.    Guaranteed cold and snow and guaranteed warm/hot summers with lots of thunderstorms.       

I would definitely miss the trees, although there is a certain beauty to the wide open plains (and the unobstructed sunsets/sunrises).

Rapid City has a bit of both worlds with the Black Hills and the plains/badlands starting nearby. I don't think the job market is as strong, though.

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

Congrats bro! I’m jealous though. 🤬

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I would definitely miss the trees, although there is a certain beauty to the wide open plains (and the unobstructed sunsets/sunrises).

Rapid City has a bit of both worlds with the Black Hills and the plains/badlands starting nearby. I don't think the job market is as strong, though.

Another huge difference between Sioux Falls and the Puget Sound region is the amount of sunshine in Sioux Falls.     Its quite sunny there in all seasons.     

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

My son was so bummed after the game last night (reoccurring theme lately) but I told him that when we move we will have a new home team to root for so we'll have twice the chance of a good season.

If the Hawks suck, we got the Vikings. If the Vikings suck, we got the Hawks. If they both suck... well, I guess we'll be SOL.

Minnesotans say the Vikings are the most cursed team in the NFL... and its hard to argue with that.  😁

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Lol I don't think most of the ones that leave do because they're fed up with the climate.

Actually, considering how mobile people are these days, I think it's kind of remarkable how many long term PNW residents there are here.

I think the people from this forum that move do so because of weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I read that the other day and honestly that is really something I'm looking forward to. I get so tired of the constant gray and rainy days in the PNW. It can be really draining by the time you get deeper into winter. Thank God Jesse isn't here or I'd surely get a tongue-lashing for that statement.

Like you said... From what I've read of the climate out there, it sounds right up my alley. Less rain/more sun, more snow/cold, warm/hot in the summer, and more legit thunderstorms. I mean... What's not to love with the sound of that?

Totally agree.    The constant gray and rain is tough... but some people love it and cheer for it all summer too.   I will never feel that way.   

It will be nice to know you have always have a great chance of serious cold and snow and it does not take every domino to line up perfectly.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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