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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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38 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

D*mn as far south as Oregon? Looks like I picked a really really good time to go up north hopefully the weathers clear. Will need Tim to keep us updated with his clouds maps. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

D*mn as far south as Oregon? Looks like I picked a really really good time to go up north hopefully the weathers clear. Will need Tim to keep us updated with his clouds maps. 

When it is supposed to hit?    It should be basically clear from late afternoon tomorrow through the weekend.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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24 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Just hit 3.00” for the day, and it’s not slowing down. Still have 4.5 hours to increase them totals! 

HRRR shows another round of torrential rain early tomorrow morning as the back edge gets organized as it moves south.  

 

hrrr-nw-refc_cloud-5501600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Up to 1.61"

It looks like they are projecting Kp7 for Saturday.  It will definitely be worth monitoring.

Note that the forecasts from NASA use UTC (aka Greenwich time) days. Midnight in Greenwich is 5:00 pm here, so tomorrow night is the time.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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I noticed rain against the north facing windows here which usually means the end of these type of events... but apparently not this time.   SEA has dropped to 52 now with a NW wind. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Warm and boring here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Note that the forecasts from NASA use UTC (aka Greenwich time) days. Midnight in Greenwich is 5:00 pm here, so tomorrow night is the time.

Yeah, so here’s the current forecast for our time (PDT) where “tomorrow” corresponds to Friday and “after tomorrow” to Saturday. Looks like best time to see it could be early Saturday morning (ie tomorrow night), although the last storm arrived a number of hours later than they forecast so Saturday evening could hypothetically be better.

For those unfamiliar, the higher the number the more likely you can see it. 7 is almost certainly visible throughout Washington.

F9E2AF3C-06AC-40A8-9B4F-6F947F1312D3.thumb.jpeg.42328ecc11a263c10b9d9f4b4dd8b3ac.jpeg

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Still 63F and pleasant. Feels like summer.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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A ball of very warm air over a ball of very cold air to the south around day 10 on the 00Z GFS.    Also shows lots of snow down to Oklahoma and Missouri.    Strange pattern.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-6372800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, dolt said:

64 degrees out at 10pm. Nice to finally have a dry and warm day outside. 

Yup, comfortable to be outside in a t shirt and shorts on the east side of the metro area.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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5 minutes ago, dolt said:

For those that are bored and like to see natural fireworks and hear roosters, this is highly recommended.

 

 

Seems similar to the volcano on the Big Island in Hawaii.    I saw this video of a slow moving lava field taking over an upscale neighborhood in Spain like we have seen in Hawaii over the years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVv4OiNGtDA

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS was boring.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS was boring.

It's too early in the season to worry about the long range forecasts unless you are rooting for AR events or windstorms. I also seriously hope that your early season subscription to WB doesn't jinx us like it did the last couple of years. lol

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I just looked up La Palma... its technically Spain but its off the West Coast of Africa.   I never realized the Canary Islands were that far away.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, dolt said:

It's too early in the season to worry about the long range forecasts unless you are rooting for AR events or windstorms. I also seriously hope that your early season subscription to WB doesn't jinx us like it did the last couple of years. lol

Eh, I've got zero expectations for the coming winter. Hopes sure, but definitely not any expectations. The end result is usually boredom anyway. But I like seeing those pepto colors over the mountains and places like Bend.

  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, dolt said:

It's too early in the season to worry about the long range forecasts unless you are rooting for AR events or windstorms. I also seriously hope that your early season subscription to WB doesn't jinx us like it did the last couple of years. lol

Good perspective. The past couple runs were like watching paint dry. Going to be a warm November. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good perspective. The past couple runs were like watching paint dry. Going to be a warm November. 

That's fine with me. November only delivers the goods around here about once every 20 years or so. Lets get that warm out of the way before DJF.

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Eh, I've got zero expectations for the coming winter. Hopes sure, but definitely not any expectations. The end result is usually boredom anyway. But I like seeing those pepto colors over the mountains and places like Bend.

I looked into it and we're getting snow this winter. The only question is whether or not it has any staying power. Brief snow events like the two we had in 2017 that melted away quickly are pretty meh. I would like to walk across the frozen delta ponds this winter.

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1 minute ago, dolt said:

I looked into it and we're getting snow this winter. The only question is whether or not it has any staying power. Brief snow events like the two we had in 2017 that melted away quickly are pretty meh. I would like to walk across the frozen delta ponds this winter.

A Jan 1969 type event is probly about a 1 in 250 chance. But who knows?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Now I've gotta think of how to put together a weather sportsbook.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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