PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[Cloud]

41F with a brisk N wind. 33F wind chill. Brrr. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Fell asleep, wind chimes woke me up. It turned real breezy quickly.

[Deweydog]

3 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

2 inches of snow in Olympia on Halloween 2003 where I lived.

That was on 11/2.

[Gradient Keeper]

Temp up to 49.4 with gusty east winds

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

[Gradient Keeper]

Wind Advisory

[Requiem]

NAM and H4r are showing some decently strong easterly gusts in spots this afternoon in and around PDX. 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

NAM and H4r are showing some decently strong easterly gusts in spots this afternoon in and around PDX. 

It's getting quite noisy out here.

[Meatyorologist]

Central sound special

35F wet snow, probably doesn't accumulate below 5-800ft. Still fun to see! Early szn continues.

[Meatyorologist]

Also, that's a #big league modified airmass creeping south at everyone's favorite hour

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Central sound special

35F wet snow, probably doesn't accumulate below 5-800ft. Still fun to see! Early szn continues.

Fantasyland

[Phil]

7 hours ago, Cloud said:

 

It certainly is a lot easier to look at the models frames on PC as well. I typically use my phone to view the forums right before bed but a lot of the times it's on the PC. 

I haven’t used a PC for this forum in years. Much easier to lay in bed and talk-to-text.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

Sudden Stratospheric Warming. 

A warm Siberian strat in Nov does positive correlate to blocking in Dec/Jan. That is a signal to look for.

[The Blob]

I forgot the car has been vomiting coolant so I'm not going to risk the drive into the gorge to chase lights.

[Tyler Mode]

Battle Ground always seems to be front and center with temperatures changes over small areas in the east wind set ups.  49 here, but 2 miles away it's 30.  Temperature has bounced between 35 and 49 this morning.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Freeze denied!  Got down to 33˚F, then the Fraser outflow started.

No obvious lights in the sky… yet.

[MWG]

Well I just got woken up by thunder and lightning. Currently 55F and raining.

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, MWG said:

Well I just got woken up by thunder and lightning. Currently 55F and raining.

Got that negative tilt to it, reminds me of a summertime moist adv event.

[Meatyorologist]

Synoptically speaking it’s quite similar to one actually. Decent midlevel convection. Hard to get those this late in the year, nigh impossible north of EUG due to lack of terrain enhancement after early Oct. barring some black swan convective event I’ve never heard of.

[Geos]

Chilly morning. Hanging in the mid 30s right now. 

[Phil]

Striking large scale similarities to 2007/08, now becoming increasingly evident. Whether that continues remains to be seen, obviously, but it’s hard to ignore.

[MWG]

28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Got that negative tilt to it, reminds me of a summertime moist adv event.

I don't think I have ever experienced a thunderstorm this late in October since I moved here. Right now hearing thunder again and it's just pouring rain love it! It just reminds me a little bit of home in Puerto Rico. 

[smerfylicious]

Dropped below freezing. 31.8! Nice.

[Timmy Supercell]

KMFR having thunderstorms this morning. Some activity moving here but I just don't know if these are strong enough for lightning.

[Timmy Supercell]

28 minutes ago, MWG said:

I don't think I have ever experienced a thunderstorm this late in October since I moved here. Right now hearing thunder again and it's just pouring rain love it! It just reminds me a little bit of home in Puerto Rico. 

09/25/2014 was my latest, and would have had one 10/05/2011 (only saw a distant flash).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

47 minutes ago, Phil said:

Striking large scale similarities to 2007/08, now becoming increasingly evident. Whether that continues remains to be seen, obviously, but it’s hard to ignore.

That winter was very close to being very good in the pnw. Exactly what we need for snow pack. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mild morning. Low of 39, up to 43. The last two years we were having lows in the low 20s around this time. 

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That winter was very close to being very good in the pnw. Exactly what we need for snow pack. 

Yeah I wouldn't hate a repeat.

Though 07-08 was an extreme outlier with how zonal it was. It'll probably not be nearly that meridional. I've got a good feeling about the Dec/Jan time period this year.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Barring a 2nd push of the temps in these last few minutes looks like 33 will be the low IMBY.  That said, got some nice white frosty rooftops and cars on my street!

[GobBluth]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This series of SSW's is going to really keep the PV off balance in the early going.

Does an early SSW guarantee a boring January and February?

[Meatyorologist]

 

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Temp up to 49.4 with gusty east winds

Gusty east winds here in SE PDX ….looks chilly out !  

[Ellsworb]

Thick frost I am going to classify as Ice on my front deck this AM on the east shore of Lake Tapps. . . wasn't expecting it and nearly fell on my butt!  

[Meatyorologist]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This series of SSW's is going to really keep the PV off balance in the early going.

 

13 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Does an early SSW guarantee a boring January and February?

I don't think the upcoming stratospheric disturbances technically qualify for a "SSW event" since zonal winds don't actually reverse in the high latitudes of the stratosphere. Consider them more as "body blows".

These body blows to the vortex do keep it unstable and vulnerable for further attacks which could turn into SSW events later on.

[MossMan]

31.8 currently! Frosty roof! 

[T-Town]

Some snow on the Olympics this morning. 40 degrees here with a brisk north wind. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, MWG said:

Well I just got woken up by thunder and lightning. Currently 55F and raining.

Thought it was supposed to be sunny for the weekend.

[Meatyorologist]

It‘s official: first frost of the season here! Almost got there earlier in the month but just missed it by a degree or two. Got down to 34F tonight.

[MWG]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Thought it was supposed to be sunny for the weekend.

Only for Sunday but it's looking like it's going to be just cloudy now. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Moderate shower came through here. No lightning but did end up with a brief rainbow. Short one, you'd miss it if you had to take a restroom break.