Jump to content

PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Thought it was supposed to be sunny for the weekend.

Dry for Halloween but there was an established thunderstorm chance for today on NWS.

  • Like 1
  • Storm 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Thought it was supposed to be sunny for the weekend.

That thunderstorm reference is in southern OR.     Not western WA.

  • Like 1
  • Storm 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hard freeze last night. Didn't check until now. Sitting at 37F whereas the last few days have been far warmer. The grass is covered by frost. Cold morning.

  • Like 3

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully the chilly lows of the next few mornings will start dropping the alder leaves, they tend to take the longest to drop extending my routine weekly fall clean up into December some years. 

  • Like 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Striking large scale similarities to 2007/08, now becoming increasingly evident. Whether that continues remains to be seen, obviously, but it’s hard to ignore.

Interestingly that was a first year Nina that continued all the way through the next summer.    I hope next spring and early summer will be different than 2008.

  • Like 1
  • Downvote 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

F63FB913-8721-4D95-9BA0-CDE0EF4EA50E.thumb.png.c63f6e57365d8da29cbea620997ded7e.png

Synoptically speaking it’s quite similar to one actually. Decent midlevel convection. Hard to get those this late in the year, nigh impossible north of EUG due to lack of terrain enhancement after early Oct. barring some black swan convective event I’ve never heard of.

Only warm core thunderstorm I can remember up here in the winter was a nasty squall line on 2/22/2002. Think it was briefly severe in the south Willamette Valley. Weird setup south of a decaying baroclinic band and northerly push, probably kinda similar to this event actually.

Snowed a few weeks later!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We’ve had a number of them in recent years, haven’t we? Plus, it’s not precisely a balmy time of year even in average conditions. Trick-or-treating on chilly nights is just part of Halloween. At least the temperature isn’t dropping into the teens like it sometimes did in the Rockies.

I just looked back at Halloween stats here in the Snoqualmie Valley since 2009... the years when the low temp was below 40 were 2011, 2017, 2019, and 2020.    So we have had a run of clear, chilly weather (3 of the last 4 years).   Then you have years like 2012 and 2015 with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s.   I assume those came with rain as well.  

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Only warm core thunderstorm I can remember up here in the winter was a nasty squall line on 2/22/2002. Think it was briefly severe in the south Willamette Valley. Weird setup south of a decaying baroclinic band and northerly push, probably kinda similar to this event actually.

Snowed a few weeks later!

Was Feb 2015 squall line event warm core? I remember Salem getting frequent lightning and that one came from the south.

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z GFS is slower again with the front on Monday... keeping it dry and mild up here through the afternoon hours.   It also shows Tuesday and Wednesday being dry and pleasant.     Finish up that yard work.  👍

  • Like 4

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MWG said:

I just want another 2016-2017 repeat not much to ask right? 😂 and man the last 2 years has been so dry 😑

image.png.f9b24ec9e27e202bef7eb6f40fad6288.png

Got half inch of rain down there this morning. Wow, 07-08’ wasn’t bad down there. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, MWG said:

I just want another 2016-2017 repeat not much to ask right? 😂 and man the last 2 years has been so dry 😑

image.png.f9b24ec9e27e202bef7eb6f40fad6288.png

Most of that 11.4 happened in one evening if I recall. 8.3" ?

That was one of the few snow events NWS nailed almost to the inch and it was forecast 48 hours out.

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Got half inch of rain down there this morning. Wow, 07-08’ wasn’t bad down there. 

I moved to Medford in 2010 but I remember every time I talked to my husband (b/f at that time) around that time he would be like oh it's snowing again and I'm like score!! I'm moving to a place that snow what a let down that was 😂

  • Popcorn 1
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Most of that 11.4 happened in one evening if I recall. 8.3" ?

That was one of the few snow events NWS nailed almost to the inch and it was forecast 48 hours out.

Correct! Where we at in south medford we got a foot of snow at the end of the event. 

  • Like 2
  • Popcorn 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Managed to pull off a low of 32 this morning.  Still no east wind.

  • Like 1
  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Surprising considering the wind has a strong easterly component here. 

There's such a strong north wind down the Sound it kills the east wind potential.  I'm very pleased about that.  Nice to have this mini cold snap to finish out the month to dovetail with that cold first half.

  • Like 2
  • Windy 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It turns out the GFS outperformed the ECMWF with surface winds last night.  Regardless of what Phil says the ECMWF is losing its luster.  Maybe the ECMWF is still better with the big picture (not sure), but the GFS seems to be doing better with fine details lately.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It appears there might be a better than 50% chance of no wind here tonight.  Might have a shot at upper 20s if it's calm most of the night.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEA is running -1.8 for the month after yesterday.  Pretty solid.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It turns out the GFS outperformed the ECMWF with surface winds last night.  Regardless of what Phil says the ECMWF is losing its luster.  Maybe the ECMWF is still better with the big picture (not sure), but the GFS seems to be doing better with fine details lately.

I think you might be just focused on your backyard.   I looked at the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF wind maps for last night and they were almost identical.    Its hard to judge an entire global model on whether there was light breeze or it was calm in Covington WA last night.   ;)

  • Like 1
  • lol 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, snow_wizard said:

SEA is running -1.8 for the month after yesterday.  Pretty solid.

So we want a warm November?   That is the magical combo.  

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just checked and the KP index is only 1 this morning.  Still no sign of the CME.

  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you might be just focused on your backyard.   I looked at the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF wind maps for last night and they were almost identical.    Its hard to judge an entire global model on whether there was light breeze or it was calm in Covington WA last night.   ;)

The ECMWF has been consistently showing the strip of east winds here though.  I knew it was too aggressive with that.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So we want a warm November?   That is the magical combo.  

With a Nina that combo is gold, although 1970 and 1955 were big exceptions.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has been consistently showing the strip of east winds here though.  I knew it was too aggressive with that.

Here is the 00Z GFS for yesterday night... it showed the same thing in your area.

 

gfs-deterministic-seattle-wnd10m_stream_mph-5570000.png

  • Windy 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only got down to 39 here. Low was at 1am and was warming since then.

  • Like 1
  • Sun 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did not see the Aurora last night so hopefully that means tonight will be a better shot. 40 degrees here on mount constitution. The NE wind is really strong right now probably 45mph. Can barely hear anything. 

82A461D8-0367-4654-AC1F-4A8E022F5C39.jpeg

991975DE-2362-40CA-BBC3-8CE5ACFD1704.jpeg

C9467426-B7F4-41F0-AACF-F49CE50332A3.jpeg

  • Like 7
  • Windy 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Did not see the Aurora last night so hopefully that means tonight will be a better shot. 40 degrees here on mount constitution. The NE wind is really strong right now probably 45mph. Can barely hear anything. 

82A461D8-0367-4654-AC1F-4A8E022F5C39.jpeg

991975DE-2362-40CA-BBC3-8CE5ACFD1704.jpeg

C9467426-B7F4-41F0-AACF-F49CE50332A3.jpeg

Looks deceptively calm.   Great pics.

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks deceptively calm.   Great pics.

It is very loud the wind is constant and feels colder than 40 degrees even in the direct sun. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...