Timmy Supercell Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Thought it was supposed to be sunny for the weekend. Dry for Halloween but there was an established thunderstorm chance for today on NWS. 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Thought it was supposed to be sunny for the weekend. That thunderstorm reference is in southern OR. Not western WA. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Hard freeze last night. Didn't check until now. Sitting at 37F whereas the last few days have been far warmer. The grass is covered by frost. Cold morning. 3 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Hopefully the chilly lows of the next few mornings will start dropping the alder leaves, they tend to take the longest to drop extending my routine weekly fall clean up into December some years. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 It was a frosty 30 degrees when I left for work at 4am this morning. It took some effort to get the truck door open. It looks to be a nice day with even a little wind if we are lucky. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: Striking large scale similarities to 2007/08, now becoming increasingly evident. Whether that continues remains to be seen, obviously, but it’s hard to ignore. Interestingly that was a first year Nina that continued all the way through the next summer. I hope next spring and early summer will be different than 2008. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: Synoptically speaking it’s quite similar to one actually. Decent midlevel convection. Hard to get those this late in the year, nigh impossible north of EUG due to lack of terrain enhancement after early Oct. barring some black swan convective event I’ve never heard of. Only warm core thunderstorm I can remember up here in the winter was a nasty squall line on 2/22/2002. Think it was briefly severe in the south Willamette Valley. Weird setup south of a decaying baroclinic band and northerly push, probably kinda similar to this event actually. Snowed a few weeks later! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 10 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: We’ve had a number of them in recent years, haven’t we? Plus, it’s not precisely a balmy time of year even in average conditions. Trick-or-treating on chilly nights is just part of Halloween. At least the temperature isn’t dropping into the teens like it sometimes did in the Rockies. I just looked back at Halloween stats here in the Snoqualmie Valley since 2009... the years when the low temp was below 40 were 2011, 2017, 2019, and 2020. So we have had a run of clear, chilly weather (3 of the last 4 years). Then you have years like 2012 and 2015 with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s. I assume those came with rain as well. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Only warm core thunderstorm I can remember up here in the winter was a nasty squall line on 2/22/2002. Think it was briefly severe in the south Willamette Valley. Weird setup south of a decaying baroclinic band and northerly push, probably kinda similar to this event actually. Snowed a few weeks later! Was Feb 2015 squall line event warm core? I remember Salem getting frequent lightning and that one came from the south. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 12Z GFS is slower again with the front on Monday... keeping it dry and mild up here through the afternoon hours. It also shows Tuesday and Wednesday being dry and pleasant. Finish up that yard work. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 I just want another 2016-2017 repeat not much to ask right? and man the last 2 years has been so dry 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 minute ago, MWG said: I just want another 2016-2017 repeat not much to ask right? and man the last 2 years has been so dry Got half inch of rain down there this morning. Wow, 07-08’ wasn’t bad down there. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, MWG said: I just want another 2016-2017 repeat not much to ask right? and man the last 2 years has been so dry Most of that 11.4 happened in one evening if I recall. 8.3" ? That was one of the few snow events NWS nailed almost to the inch and it was forecast 48 hours out. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Got half inch of rain down there this morning. Wow, 07-08’ wasn’t bad down there. I moved to Medford in 2010 but I remember every time I talked to my husband (b/f at that time) around that time he would be like oh it's snowing again and I'm like score!! I'm moving to a place that snow what a let down that was 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post T-Town Posted October 30, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 A couple more from this morning. 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Most of that 11.4 happened in one evening if I recall. 8.3" ? That was one of the few snow events NWS nailed almost to the inch and it was forecast 48 hours out. Correct! Where we at in south medford we got a foot of snow at the end of the event. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Managed to pull off a low of 32 this morning. Still no east wind. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Managed to pull off a low of 32 this morning. Still no east wind. Surprising considering the wind has a strong easterly component here. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, T-Town said: Surprising considering the wind has a strong easterly component here. There's such a strong north wind down the Sound it kills the east wind potential. I'm very pleased about that. Nice to have this mini cold snap to finish out the month to dovetail with that cold first half. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 It turns out the GFS outperformed the ECMWF with surface winds last night. Regardless of what Phil says the ECMWF is losing its luster. Maybe the ECMWF is still better with the big picture (not sure), but the GFS seems to be doing better with fine details lately. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 It appears there might be a better than 50% chance of no wind here tonight. Might have a shot at upper 20s if it's calm most of the night. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 SEA is running -1.8 for the month after yesterday. Pretty solid. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It turns out the GFS outperformed the ECMWF with surface winds last night. Regardless of what Phil says the ECMWF is losing its luster. Maybe the ECMWF is still better with the big picture (not sure), but the GFS seems to be doing better with fine details lately. I think you might be just focused on your backyard. I looked at the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF wind maps for last night and they were almost identical. Its hard to judge an entire global model on whether there was light breeze or it was calm in Covington WA last night. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: SEA is running -1.8 for the month after yesterday. Pretty solid. So we want a warm November? That is the magical combo. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Just checked and the KP index is only 1 this morning. Still no sign of the CME. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I think you might be just focused on your backyard. I looked at the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF wind maps for last night and they were almost identical. Its hard to judge an entire global model on whether there was light breeze or it was calm in Covington WA last night. The ECMWF has been consistently showing the strip of east winds here though. I knew it was too aggressive with that. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: So we want a warm November? That is the magical combo. With a Nina that combo is gold, although 1970 and 1955 were big exceptions. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF has been consistently showing the strip of east winds here though. I knew it was too aggressive with that. Here is the 00Z GFS for yesterday night... it showed the same thing in your area. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Felts Field was reporting freezing fog this morning. 'Tis the season 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Only got down to 39 here. Low was at 1am and was warming since then. 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 #ombm 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Just now, GHweatherChris said: #ombm I read the words for that acronym on the first try... that is pretty much true. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Did not see the Aurora last night so hopefully that means tonight will be a better shot. 40 degrees here on mount constitution. The NE wind is really strong right now probably 45mph. Can barely hear anything. 7 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: Did not see the Aurora last night so hopefully that means tonight will be a better shot. 40 degrees here on mount constitution. The NE wind is really strong right now probably 45mph. Can barely hear anything. Looks deceptively calm. Great pics. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Only got down to 39 here. Low was at 1am and was warming since then. Only 39, huh? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I read the words for that acronym on the first try... that is pretty much true. For everyone single ine of us despite certain narratives. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: #ombm Orthogonally Multiplexed Biorthogonal Modulation 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Looks deceptively calm. Great pics. It is very loud the wind is constant and feels colder than 40 degrees even in the direct sun. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Orthogonally Multiplexed Biorthogonal Modulation Nailed it! Exactly what I came up with as well. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Orthogonally Multiplexed Biorthogonal Modulation Yep, except you misspelled all 4 words. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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