TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 East wind picking up here... warming up fast now. Interestingly... North Bend is still socked in with fog. Its been clear here since dawn. I assume that fog down below will get blown out soon. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 It’s really ripping here camera just doesn’t do the sound justice. IMG_9162.MOV 2 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 The 1st week of November is looking pretty mild. ☀ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 I was actually pretty stunned by how mild last night was given clear skies. Very warm morning. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Snowstorm on the 12z GFS. Tis the season! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 37 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Did not see the Aurora last night so hopefully that means tonight will be a better shot. 40 degrees here on mount constitution. The NE wind is really strong right now probably 45mph. Can barely hear anything. Yup....the CME did not hit last night. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 3 hours ago, GobBluth said: Does an early SSW guarantee a boring January and February? These aren’t SSW events. But there is wave activity keeping the SPV off balance. Should that continue into Nov/Dec, it would increase the chances for high latitude blocking all by itself. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 They were calling for a real miniscule amount for the east sides, but it's been straight on raining for about 3 hours here. With my luck KLMT gets 0.05" though 2 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Really impressive stuff late on this GFS run. Lows tracking south of here and some good blocking. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Breezy! 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Sure is dark! 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 32 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: It’s really ripping here camera just doesn’t do the sound justice. IMG_9162.MOV Very cool. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Severe clear at the old farmstead. 2 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Wow I see it’s raining at EUG now. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 What ever happened to that Link psychopath? 4 1 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: What ever happened to that Link psychopath? After that 5 paragraph long political comment, haven't seen him. 2 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Interestingly that was a first year Nina that continued all the way through the next summer. I hope next spring and early summer will be different than 2008. Probably depends on ENSO evolution after this winter. If there’s sufficient -QBO/eSS influence in the tropics next spring it could augment the transition to El Niño. But there aren’t many instances of Niña/-QBO transitioning to El Niño in the subsequent spring. Not an easy progression for the system, usually requires significant priming during the cold season (jury still out on that). Bottom line is one of the next two years is likely to feature a significant, single year El Niño episode. If not next year, then it’ll probably be the subsequent year (2023/24). 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, Deweydog said: What ever happened to that Link psychopath? He went back to Hyrule. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 In the meantime, this looks like the strongest La Niña event in (at least) a decade. Haven’t seen an SSTA signature like this in the NPAC in awhile. I guess the idea of an early 2020s multiyear Niña/-PDO cycle turned out to be a good call. So much is revealed in the respiration of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. 3 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 It is windier here today than any other day this week. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Been pouring for 15 minutes. If there's still a "trace" at the airport after this, wow. This is one intense sprinkle storm. 3 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 34 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: After that 5 paragraph long political comment, haven't seen him. Nuttier than a 40 oz jar of Jif. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Really interesting morning SEA dealt with a strong N wind for most of the night and into the morning that kept temps stayed mostly in the mid-30s. Here, it was dead calm but we hovered mostly around 40 under clear skies. You’d think colder, but nope! Saw some spots away from the waters and the city got down to freezing and frosted up nicely. UHI pretty much showing its teeth. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, Phil said: Probably depends on ENSO evolution after this winter. If there’s sufficient -QBO/eSS influence in the tropics next spring it could augment the transition to El Niño. But there aren’t many instances of Niña/-QBO transitioning to El Niño in the subsequent spring. Not an easy progression for the system, usually requires significant priming during the cold season (jury still out on that). Bottom line is one of the next two years is likely to feature a significant, single year El Niño episode. If not next year, then it’ll probably be the subsequent year (2023/24). Best case scenario for us would certainly be a 2023-24 Nino. The QBO would be on our side for the next two winters that way. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cloud said: Really interesting morning SEA dealt with a strong N wind for most of the night and into the morning that kept temps stayed mostly in the mid-30s. Here, it was dead calm but we hovered mostly around 40 under clear skies. You’d think colder, but nope! Saw some spots away from the waters and the city got down to freezing and frosted up nicely. UHI pretty much showing its teeth. Yeah...we still had frost on the shaded roof tops after 10am this morning. An honest goodness heavy frost. SEA dropping to 38 with that wind is actually pretty impressive. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, Phil said: In the meantime, this looks like the strongest La Niña event in (at least) a decade. Haven’t seen an SSTA signature like this in the NPAC in awhile. I guess the idea of an early 2020s multiyear Niña/-PDO cycle turned out to be a good call. So much is revealed in the respiration of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. That's the coldest the Pacific has been overall in forever. Really nice to see. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Best case scenario for us would certainly be a 2023-24 Nino. The QBO would be on our side for the next two winters that way. I’d also be concerned for another big torch next summer if we transition to El Niño with emerging +QBO. If the La Niña system state can hold firm, it would be the best chance in a decade for the long overdue cool PNW summer. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: I’d also be concerned for another big torch next summer if we transition to El Niño with emerging +QBO. If the La Niña system state can hold firm, it would be the best chance for the long overdue cool PNW summer in a decade. I would love an average summer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 The wind the last 24hrs has been relentless here. Constantly 15 to 35 mph. 4 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I was actually pretty stunned by how mild last night was given clear skies. Very warm morning. The 850s were quite a bit colder up here last night, but I would have thought you would do better. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: I’d also be concerned for another big torch next summer if we transition to El Niño with emerging +QBO. If the La Niña system state can hold firm, it would be the best chance in a decade for the long overdue cool PNW summer. They sort of had one last year with June in July. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The wind the last 24hrs has been relentless here. Constantly 15 to 35 mph. This is a really interesting situation as far as surface gradients. The evolution continues to intrigue me this autumn. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: They sort of had one last year with June in July. Overall the summer was warm thanks in large part to June. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Yeah...we still had frost on the shaded roof tops after 10am this morning. An honest goodness heavy frost. SEA dropping to 38 with that wind is actually pretty impressive. It’s definitely not calm here at the moment as I can feel the winds whipping around and feels a lot colder. I’m on top of a hill so I can feel the effect, BFI however is pretty well shaded and protected with its low elevation. Only about a mile away. Also up to 50. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Phil said: I’d also be concerned for another big torch next summer if we transition to El Niño with emerging +QBO. If the La Niña system state can hold firm, it would be the best chance in a decade for the long overdue cool PNW summer. Totally agree with this. I think we have a shot at this next 18 months being something special for us. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 54 here with a light SE wind. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 54 here with a light SE wind. Evident that the offshore flow is beginning. Should get crank up throughout the day. Wind advisory is in place. Looks like you’re gonna feel it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: I would have given this comment a like if it was crunchy PB but it's creamy so... No like for you. It actually says extra crunchy. Maybe he switched it. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Overall the summer was warm thanks in large part to June. Different east of the mountains, where nearly all of July was 90-100. And somehow August came out pretty much normal. 3 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Evident that the offshore flow is beginning. Should get crank up throughout the day. Wind advisory is in Well have to see. The models are far from firm on the extent and placement of the east wind. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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