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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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East wind picking up here... warming up fast now.   

Interestingly... North Bend is still socked in with fog.  Its been clear here since dawn.    I assume that fog down below will get blown out soon.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was actually pretty stunned by how mild last night was given clear skies. Very warm morning. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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37 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Did not see the Aurora last night so hopefully that means tonight will be a better shot. 40 degrees here on mount constitution. The NE wind is really strong right now probably 45mph. Can barely hear anything. 

82A461D8-0367-4654-AC1F-4A8E022F5C39.jpeg

991975DE-2362-40CA-BBC3-8CE5ACFD1704.jpeg

C9467426-B7F4-41F0-AACF-F49CE50332A3.jpeg

Yup....the CME did not hit last night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, GobBluth said:

Does an early SSW guarantee a boring January and February?

These aren’t SSW events. But there is wave activity keeping the SPV off balance. Should that continue into Nov/Dec, it would increase the chances for high latitude blocking all by itself.

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They were calling for a real miniscule amount for the east sides, but it's been straight on raining for about 3 hours here.

With my luck KLMT gets 0.05" though 🤡

KMAX_loop_10302021-2.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Really impressive stuff late on this GFS run.  Lows tracking south of here and some good blocking.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Sure is dark! 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Severe clear at the old farmstead. 

F81A7C2F-6CCD-4F7A-B0CE-41CB0F775782.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Wow I see it’s raining at EUG now.

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  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What ever happened to that Link psychopath?

After that 5 paragraph long political comment, haven't seen him. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly that was a first year Nina that continued all the way through the next summer.    I hope next spring and early summer will be different than 2008.

Probably depends on ENSO evolution after this winter. If there’s sufficient -QBO/eSS influence in the tropics next spring it could augment the transition to El Niño.

But there aren’t many instances of Niña/-QBO transitioning to El Niño in the subsequent spring. Not an easy progression for the system, usually requires significant priming during the cold season (jury still out on that).

Bottom line is one of the next two years is likely to feature a significant, single year El Niño episode. If not next year, then it’ll probably be the subsequent year (2023/24).

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In the meantime, this looks like the strongest La Niña event in (at least) a decade. Haven’t seen an SSTA signature like this in the NPAC in awhile.

I guess the idea of an early 2020s multiyear Niña/-PDO cycle turned out to be a good call. ;) So much is revealed in the respiration of the Indo-Pacific warm pool.

 

86FE1FC3-FB3E-431C-84B5-293679BF2D64.png

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Been pouring for 15 minutes. 

If there's still a "trace" at the airport after this, wow. This is one intense sprinkle storm.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Really interesting morning SEA dealt with a strong N wind for most of the night and into the morning that kept temps stayed mostly in the mid-30s. 
 

Here, it was dead calm but we hovered mostly around 40 under clear skies. You’d think colder, but nope! 
 

Saw some spots away from the waters and the city got down to freezing and frosted up nicely. 
 

UHI pretty much showing its teeth. 

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23 minutes ago, Phil said:

Probably depends on ENSO evolution after this winter. If there’s sufficient -QBO/eSS influence in the tropics next spring it could augment the transition to El Niño.

But there aren’t many instances of Niña/-QBO transitioning to El Niño in the subsequent spring. Not an easy progression for the system, usually requires significant priming during the cold season (jury still out on that).

Bottom line is one of the next two years is likely to feature a significant, single year El Niño episode. If not next year, then it’ll probably be the subsequent year (2023/24).

Best case scenario for us would certainly be a 2023-24 Nino.  The QBO would be on our side for the next two winters that way.

  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Really interesting morning SEA dealt with a strong N wind for most of the night and into the morning that kept temps stayed mostly in the mid-30s. 
 

Here, it was dead calm but we hovered mostly around 40 under clear skies. You’d think colder, but nope! 
 

Saw some spots away from the waters and the city got down to freezing and frosted up nicely. 
 

UHI pretty much showing its teeth. 

Yeah...we still had frost on the shaded roof tops after 10am this morning.  An honest goodness heavy frost.

SEA dropping to 38 with that wind is actually pretty impressive.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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24 minutes ago, Phil said:

In the meantime, this looks like the strongest La Niña event in (at least) a decade. Haven’t seen an SSTA signature like this in the NPAC in awhile.

I guess the idea of an early 2020s multiyear Niña/-PDO cycle turned out to be a good call. ;) So much is revealed in the respiration of the Indo-Pacific warm pool.

 

86FE1FC3-FB3E-431C-84B5-293679BF2D64.png

That's the coldest the Pacific has been overall in forever.  Really nice to see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Best case scenario for us would certainly be a 2023-24 Nino.  The QBO would be on our side for the next two winters that way.

I’d also be concerned for another big torch next summer if we transition to El Niño with emerging +QBO.

If the La Niña system state can hold firm, it would be the best chance in a decade for the long overdue cool PNW summer.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’d also be concerned for another big torch next summer if we transition to El Niño with emerging +QBO.

If the La Niña system state can hold firm, it would be the best chance for the long overdue cool PNW summer in a decade.

I would love an average summer.😍

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was actually pretty stunned by how mild last night was given clear skies. Very warm morning. 

The 850s were quite a bit colder up here last night, but I would have thought you would do better.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d also be concerned for another big torch next summer if we transition to El Niño with emerging +QBO.

If the La Niña system state can hold firm, it would be the best chance in a decade for the long overdue cool PNW summer.

They sort of had one last year with June in July.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The wind the last 24hrs has been relentless here. Constantly 15 to 35 mph.

This is a really interesting situation as far as surface gradients.  The evolution continues to intrigue me this autumn.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

They sort of had one last year with June in July.

Overall the summer was warm thanks in large part to June.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...we still had frost on the shaded roof tops after 10am this morning.  An honest goodness heavy frost.

SEA dropping to 38 with that wind is actually pretty impressive.

It’s definitely not calm here at the moment as I can feel the winds whipping around and feels a lot colder. I’m on top of a hill so I can feel the effect, BFI however is pretty well shaded and protected with its low elevation. Only about a mile away. Also up to 50.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d also be concerned for another big torch next summer if we transition to El Niño with emerging +QBO.

If the La Niña system state can hold firm, it would be the best chance in a decade for the long overdue cool PNW summer.

Totally agree with this.  I think we have a shot at this next 18 months being something special for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I would have given this comment a like if it was crunchy PB but it's creamy so... No like for you.

mean girls one for you and none for gretchen wieners bye GIF

It actually says extra crunchy.  Maybe he switched it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Overall the summer was warm thanks in large part to June.

Different east of the mountains, where nearly all of July was 90-100. 

And somehow August came out pretty much normal. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Evident that the offshore flow is beginning. Should get crank up throughout the day. Wind advisory is in

 

Well have to see.  The models are far from firm on the extent and placement of the east wind.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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