PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[Kayla]

13 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Sounds like a terrific idea. If i have a drone, I would totally do it. What's the FAA rules for the morning hours? Maybe 5-8AM works? 

Same regulation applies. 30 minutes after sunset to 30 minute before sunrise.

I'd honestly prefer that no one flew drones at night.

[snow drift]

6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

That was the season it rained more than snowed?

It rained all January, but the first three weeks of December were below freezing with snow on the ground. Everything melted right before Christmas.

[MossMan]

I have no idea how I fell this far down the YouTube rabbit hole but I just watched the full clip of this guy truck camping in Nebraska during a big Thunderstorm and eating an imitation crab sandwich…Looked like a blast! 

 

[Geos]

Sure was a nice crisp fall day today. Not noticing really any wind. In fact the temps are really dropping in the Woodinville area. Down as far as 37° in spots. 

Hoping to catch the aurora tonight. 

[snow_wizard]

The latest shows the auroral oval being faint and retracted.  This might be a bust.

[Timmy Supercell]

12 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It rained all January, but the first three weeks of December were below freezing with snow on the ground. Everything melted right before Christmas.

New Years Eve goes bare close to half the time and it doesn't mean its a bad winter. 12/31/2016 had nothing here but whoa Jan 3-4. lol

[GHweatherChris]

18 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Same regulation applies. 30 minutes after sunset to 30 minute before sunrise.

I'd honestly prefer that no one flew drones at night.

Yep, and the rule makes total sense.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The latest shows the auroral oval being faint and retracted.  This might be a bust.

Watch the cycle, it dims then bursts. I wouldn't be surprised if it bursts again in the next few hours.

[Geos]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The latest shows the auroral oval being faint and retracted.  This might be a bust.

The oval isn't too impressive at all. Been watching it on spaceweather. 

[snow_wizard]

The east wind made it here after all.  Still might die out later though.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Watch the cycle, it dims the bursts. I wouldn't be surprised if it bursts again in the next few hours.

Yeah....there's still hope, but I think this is coming in weaker than they had expected.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The east wind made it here after all.  Still might die out later though.

NWS still to don't think it'll die. Strong Cascadia wind still expected. 

 

[Cloud]

Winds have really picked up here the last half hour but it is of the northern gradient type. Just let the dog out and it's quite chilly because of the wind. 

[snow drift]

21 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

New Years Eve goes bare close to half the time and it doesn't mean its a bad winter. 12/31/2016 had nothing here but whoa Jan 3-4. lol

Over in Coeur d'Alene, I had snowcover from early December 2016 until early March 2017. 

[snow_wizard]

The dp is currently 12 in North Bend.  Sure wasn't expecting numbers like that.  A nearby station shows 14 so it's for real.

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, Geos said:

The oval isn't too impressive at all. Been watching it on spaceweather. 

This has strong bust potential compare to the last one... with the last one, by this time, it's already way south. Also does not look as impressive. We'll have to see as we head into the early morning hours. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

NWS still to don't think it'll die. Strong Cascadia wind still expected. 

 

The models show a steady weakening through the night.  This is pretty marginal for my area.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cloud said:

This has strong bust potential compare to the last one... with the last one, by this time, it's already way south. Also does not look as impressive. We'll have to see as we head into the early morning hours. 

Our big hope is that the main shock wave from the CME hasn't hit yet.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Over in Coeur dAlene, I had snowcover from early December 2016 until early March 2017. 

2016-17 was a legit cold winter.  No two ways about it.

[ShawniganLake]

35 here.  Looks like it’ll freeze again tonight 

[Thunder98]

Oooooo I’m a ghost!

[Geos]

Cold spots right now...Lake Stevens, Granite Falls, and Maltby all at 34°.

[TT-SEA]

Just went outside again and there is definitely a breeze here now and it feels significantly warmer than it did earlier in the evening.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Severe slow cooling. A mild 43 out.

[MossMan]

37 currently. 
51/31 on the day. 

[Cloud]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Our big hope is that the main shock wave from the CME hasn't hit yet.

Looking at the aurora loop for the last 24 hours, there were couple of intense bursts and we're at the lower end of it right now. If the forecast is true, then we can expect another wave. Guess we'll just have to see how far south it goes. 

[GHweatherChris]

13 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Looking at the aurora loop for the last 24 hours, there were couple of intense bursts and we're at the lower end of it right now. If the forecast is true, then we can expect another wave. Guess we'll just have to see how far south it goes. 

33° rain.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, Geos said:

Cold spots right now...Lake Stevens, Granite Falls, and Maltby all at 34°.

I think a few places could pull off mid 20s tonight.  A lot of dry air filtering in.

[Timmy Supercell]

October up to the 30th is running a -0.5 Mean, so pretty much average. 

September didn't end warm either with a +0.5 at KLMT. 

[Cloud]

SEA will end the month with 5.76" of rain... almost 2" above normal. And cooler than average.

Amazingly, today also mark the end of a 10-day measurable rain streak. Up until this point, only 8 days without rain, should end with 10. Did not have a stretch of 3 straight dry days either.

Just wet and cool overall. 

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the 00Z GFS is back to showing dry weather for next weekend again.  

[snow_wizard]

Really unusual temperature distribution tonight.  There are instances where there are places in the 30s just a couple of miles from places in the low 50s.  Rather isolated occurrences of east winds are the main cause.  The wind field is much more limited than normal.

[snow_wizard]

The Aleutian block and Pacific ridge successfully merge on this run again.  It will be interesting to see what that actually ends up looking like as the time frame narrows.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

This has strong bust potential compare to the last one... with the last one, by this time, it's already way south. Also does not look as impressive. We'll have to see as we head into the early morning hours. 

Trended east.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah pretty clear to see where the east wind funnels out just by the temp readings tonight. Places along I-90 and near Maple Valley are in the 50s while places sandwiched in between are almost 20 degrees cooler. Crazy microclimates.

And that could look massively different by morning.  I've seen it drop 20 degrees in a few hours on nights like this if the wind quits.

[Gradient Keeper]

Very windy here with PDX-DLS still at -6.1mb

 

GFS and Canadian continues to be worlds apart.

10 Day Rainfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Is the normal meteostar gradient webpage no longer working for you? Mine says something about them retiring the page. I've reverted back to the table provided by NWS but I liked that site for those readings.

Yep it hasn't worked for a few months. I do miss the meteostar gradient and 16 day GFS extended data pages. They were a staple for us model riders. Now I just look the individual obs pages and do the math in my head.

00z ECMWF in 17 minutes

[snow_wizard]

The forecasters are starting back peddle on the aurora now.  Now the forecast is G1 to G3.  Kind of reminds me of a blown snowstorm forecast.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Very windy here with PDX-DLS still at -6.1mb

 

GFS and Canadian continues to be worlds apart.

10 Day Rainfall totals

With a possible blocking episode coming up the models are going to suck.

[SouthHillFrosty]