lol, correct except for the timescale. The warming following a 3+ year niña is evident inside 5 years following the event. But if a more +ENSO tendency follows, it becomes statistically null and void.
Longer term warming/cooling via ENSO variability is indeed largely on the centennial scale due to the high degree of multidecadal variability in ENSO behavior.
Also, ENSO is just one of several modes of internal variability in ocean/atmosphere circulation/heat transports (all of which affect global climate significantly). We follow ENSO because it’s short term/noticeable, and high amplitude.
However, there are other, longer term modes of internal variability (mostly involving the IPWP/seasonality and axisymmetric variability in the z-circulations) that actually have more profound effects on global climate than ENSO does. But they’re understudied and overlooked because they operate on such long timescales that we don’t necessarily realize they exist.
Looks like Im the victim of a copy/paste error. My numbers are wrong. I demand a full investigation and severe sanctions against the offending party or parties.
Been having on and off non-sticking snow showers in Ashland this afternoon. From 2-6pm. I think its thinning out, as well as an overall decrease in wind gusts.
36 now, with a high of 41 for the day. Felt a lot like January out here.