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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I don’t see it happening in Nov. Maybe a glancing blow.

But I’ve been wrong before.

A smaller scale version of that happened in the last week of Nov 2019 with the southern Oregon bomb cyclone.

We had the coldest Black Friday in many years.

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39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows a considerable amount of sun for western WA over the next 10 days.    The only day that has low and mid level clouds on this run is next Thursday.     It still shows it being totally sunny over the weekend and then partly sunny with high clouds at times most of the remaining days on this run.    Pretty impressive for early November.

Seems like there's been more sunny spells in November recently.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Seems like there's been more sunny spells in November recently.

I agree.    We have had some nice sunny periods in November in the last decade... and not all gloom.    Thanksgiving has been sunny several times in recent years.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Clouds are mostly gone here in the San Juan’s. Gonna be an epic sunset will get up early in the morning and see if the Aurora is visible to the north of here…thankfully I do have a decent view to the north about 50 yards from my campsite. If not I’m sure tomorrow night they’ll be out. 

1A5FD85A-0287-4DF4-BD3B-0ED143F998FD.jpeg

830AF941-90BD-40F7-81E6-C1A8B3F0AAB6.jpeg

28BEBC9D-7F17-4BFC-9ACC-10BDF8987885.jpeg

Beautiful. Looks like it is really clearing out there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Woke up to this from my nap

20211029_132022.jpg

Just think in a few weeks there will be FEET of snow out there. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just think in a few weeks there will be FEET of snow out there. ;)

Jim will only have about 10 inches due to east wind and be VERY disappointed.

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Jim will only have about 10 inches due to east wind and be VERY disappointed.

Hopefully we can get him a few sunny sub-zero days to make up for it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Wouldn't be above normal here if Western Washington is below normal.  Doesn't work that way.  That map is not exact anyway.

Brian, I was stating what the map says. I wasn't saying it would verify or not. Thanks.

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Clouds are mostly gone here in the San Juan’s. Gonna be an epic sunset will get up early in the morning and see if the Aurora is visible to the north of here…thankfully I do have a decent view to the north about 50 yards from my campsite. If not I’m sure tomorrow night they’ll be out. 

1A5FD85A-0287-4DF4-BD3B-0ED143F998FD.jpeg

830AF941-90BD-40F7-81E6-C1A8B3F0AAB6.jpeg

28BEBC9D-7F17-4BFC-9ACC-10BDF8987885.jpeg

It's cleared out over here, too.

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2 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

A smaller scale version of that happened in the last week of Nov 2019 with the southern Oregon bomb cyclone.

We had the coldest Black Friday in many years.

It was 30/15 here. I remember some wind with that.

 

 

 

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Not much rain. Back to partly Sunny and in the upper 50s.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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The GFS shows things getting pretty darn nippy later on.  Interestingly the EPS shows PNA, EPO, and NAO all negative late in week two.  Considering how closely we've been mirroring 1970 in the broader sense a November cold snap is a pretty strong possibility.  The major baroclinic band yesterday is often a warning sign of a coming cold snap as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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18z looks like it wants to go dry and relatively cool in the long range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I ended up with close to 3 inches of rain from the event yesterday.  The wettest in quite some time.

There was one two hour period where the rain was pretty much ridiculous.  Got drenched just walking from the car to the front door.  The precip was likely enhanced by the sliding C-Zone as the wind shifted to north late in the day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Tomorrow evening looks quite nice for the geomagnetic storm. This one is projected to be slightly stronger than the previous one at G3.  Cloud is expected to clear out tonight and remain that way through tomorrow night. 

Quote

Impacts to our technology from a G3 storm are generally nominal. However, a G3 storm has the potential to drive the aurora further away from its normal polar residence and if other factors come together, the aurora might be seen over the far Northeast, to the upper Midwest, and over the state of Washington

18z cloud cover through Sunday. 

floop-gfs-2021102918.cloudcover.conus.gif

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I'm so stoked!  It looks like it's going to get cold!  The models are really gravitating that way today.  Really major change in the EPO forecast.  Pretty much minus or neutral the entire run on the EPS.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Tomorrow evening looks quite nice for the geomagnetic storm. This one is projected to be slightly stronger than the previous one at G3.  Cloud is expected to clear out tonight and remain that way through tomorrow night. 

.

It could be amazing.  Hard to believe it will be clear, but that's the way it looks.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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GFS still showing colder nighttime temps in mid-Nov

GFS Washington Temp.png

GFS Oregon Temp.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS still showing colder nighttime temps in mid-Nov

GFS Washington Temp.png

Omg a frost in November. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It could be amazing.  Hard to believe it will be clear, but that's the way it looks.

Pretty much no clouds up here 100 miles north…I can see some clouds to the south though. Looks like there’s a chance to see them tonight but I think tomorrow night will probably be the real show. The cold clear snap is just amazingly timed with Halloween and this Aurora potential. 

F24EEBFA-846F-431E-BF7B-24B5967A1642.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I already told my family, financial advisor and primary care physician.😬

It’s always you ruining everything. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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53 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Omg a frost in November. 

It is a nice looking pattern though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, T-Town said:

You gotta admit, if you have the power to ruin everything, you’re gonna use it. 

Tim also possesses these powers. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

RIDGE BRIDGE ALERT!

  • First known sighting of the fabled 'ridge bridge' of the 2021 winter season has occurred in the 12z EPS today
  • Can sometimes be followed by long breakouts of bitter cold in the PNW states
  • Can also lead to absolutely nothing of note in the aforementioned areas
  • Future Action Needed: Be on the lookout for the bridging of future ridges

All kidding aside....that is a nice look.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, luminen said:

Been raining nonstop since Wednesday night here. 

It hasn't stopped yet?  Already nearly clear here this evening.  Looks like 30s by 9pm or earlier tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Past 72 hours have given us 0.28" here in Corvallis.

Screwed by plain old latitude. It happens. A bit of rain going on in the north Umpqua basin it looks like, but sunny here.

Those baroclinic bands are usually tightly focused.  You are pretty unlucky we've had a big one south and north of you already.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Jim will only have about 10 inches due to east wind and be VERY disappointed.

That only happens sometimes.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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