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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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Dr. Roundy’s MJO-ER filtered tropical forcing analogs start to look interesting in early December. Arctic blast in time for holiday season?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

A rare sight lately... blue sky. 

Cottonwoods turning yellow now and our Japanese maples were stripped bare by the wind.   

20211029_125737.jpg

Well above average color on the cottonwoods this year and this weekend's weather will add to that.  Not at Central WA levels, but some of them are turning pretty nicely.

BTW...when we were talking about native trees the other day we forgot to mention bitter cherry.  They are one the prettiest turning trees we have, and some places haver quite a few.  They usually turn red, orange, and yellow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Bright sun and a max of 51°F this afternoon. Had that feel of a crisp autumn day that will be followed by a frosty night. Now 45°F and falling rapidly.

I love evenings like this.  Almost clear and 45 here after a high of 50.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Clouds are mostly gone here in the San Juan’s. Gonna be an epic sunset will get up early in the morning and see if the Aurora is visible to the north of here…thankfully I do have a decent view to the north about 50 yards from my campsite. If not I’m sure tomorrow night they’ll be out.

One can never be sure. Sometimes a forecast looks promising, and the aurora is a no-show. Sometimes it shows up by surprise.

I did some quick calculations based on observed velocity and the current distance from the Sun to the Earth, and came up with a CME impact of 3:00 AM local time tomorrow morning. So I’m setting my alarm for 4:00 just in case.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...when we were talking about native trees the other day we forgot to mention bitter cherry.  They are one the prettiest turning trees we have, and some places haver quite a few.  They usually turn red, orange, and yellow.

Oregon Crab Apple is another good one. Same plant family, similar colors.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

I guess the southwest flow is gone. 

It is gone.   And so is the rain.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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42 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Nicer evening tonight than 24 hours ago. 

2A580AED-7212-4150-BD44-E05114983B87.jpeg

Have I mentioned you have an incredible view??  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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62/50 and partly cloudy for my birthday. Pleasant day. We sure do need rain here tho.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

One can never be sure. Sometimes a forecast looks promising, and the aurora is a no-show. Sometimes it shows up by surprise.

I did some quick calculations based on observed velocity and the current distance from the Sun to the Earth, and came up with a CME impact of 3:00 AM local time tomorrow morning. So I’m setting my alarm for 4:00 just in case.

Noted! I’ll check it out. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Wow, beautiful . You definitely timed the weather right. 

The last 3 Halloween’s in a row have been spectacular in terms of weather. Have made it a tradition to come up here. I try to come once for Halloween and once in late February/early March to see some snow up on the mountain. Always have a great time 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It hasn't stopped yet?  Already nearly clear here this evening.  Looks like 30s by 9pm or earlier tonight.

It's stopped and clearing out now. Supposedly there will be snow late tonight into tomorrow morning but I'm skeptical. Last time it got cold it just completely dried out.

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An unfortunate midnight high of 58 today, down to 43 now. 1.26” of rain, but a sunny afternoon. 

612B1045-5492-4C17-BECB-273F0A2487FA.jpeg

E665C665-536B-4871-9774-9D4A4D785818.jpeg

839D5933-C2D0-4E8C-BE2C-56C79B67CC28.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

708EC39E-31A5-42C0-ABB1-1ABFC86DCB3F.thumb.jpeg.410c7d342c47e8e8a700d817b01130e3.jpeg
 

The lake is fat and happy again. 41°F here, 13°F cooler than this time yesterday.

The photo uploaded upside down for some reason, but it’s kinda trippy this way so I’m keeping it.

 

Pretty cool how the stuff in lake looks like snow on the mountain flipped upside down. 

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Just caught up on the models... how about that 12z for a birthday gift @TigerWoodsLibido????

Eugene is gonna be the place to BE 2021/22

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Already down to 37 at the junction of I-90 and Highway 18.  What a difference a day makes sometimes!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

708EC39E-31A5-42C0-ABB1-1ABFC86DCB3F.thumb.jpeg.410c7d342c47e8e8a700d817b01130e3.jpeg
 

The lake is fat and happy again. 41°F here, 13°F cooler than this time yesterday.

The photo uploaded upside down for some reason, but it’s kinda trippy this way so I’m keeping it.

 

Can you upload the photo again?  I'm totally confused which is the reflection and which isn't.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

I guess the southwest flow is gone. 

Thanks to a little cut off high pressure cell that took pity on us.  It turned the surface pressure gradients to northerly, and cut off the moisture.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can you upload the photo again?  I'm totally confused which is the reflection and which isn't.

Lock your screen and flip your phone... it will make sense.   Top is the water. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ECMWF shows the east wind starting up here around midnight.     Models have also trended wetter for Monday.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can you upload the photo again?  I'm totally confused which is the reflection and which isn't.

Apologies to @1000'NorthBend if I may have edited the picture without your permission. 

This should make it less trippy for you Jim.  It's kinda weird that looking at the picture from the "right" perspective makes it a lot less "trippy" 🤣

708EC39E-31A5-42C0-ABB1-1ABFC86DCB3F.jpeg.74b30322d9c67e9c2170f53bd07c2ec9.jpeg

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

An unfortunate midnight high of 58 today, down to 43 now. 1.26” of rain, but a sunny afternoon. 

612B1045-5492-4C17-BECB-273F0A2487FA.jpeg

E665C665-536B-4871-9774-9D4A4D785818.jpeg

839D5933-C2D0-4E8C-BE2C-56C79B67CC28.jpeg

It was already down to 50 here at midnight.  Going to be a nice minus today. 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Apologies to @1000'NorthBend if I may have edited the picture without your permission. 

This should make it less trippy for you Jim.  It's kinda weird that looking at the picture from the "right" perspective makes it a lot less "trippy" 🤣

708EC39E-31A5-42C0-ABB1-1ABFC86DCB3F.jpeg.74b30322d9c67e9c2170f53bd07c2ec9.jpeg

Indeed.  The upside version was actually kind of unnerving to look at.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows the east wind starting up here around midnight.     Models have also trended wetter for Monday.

I think the GFS kind of owned the ECMWF again on the Monday thing.  It's been showing a very cool max that day for several runs now.  I have to think the ECMWF is too aggressive with the east wind tonight.  Hard to imagine everything setting up that fast.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lock your screen and flip your phone... it will make sense.   Top is the water. 

I actually use a PC for the forum.  It's so much easier to type with a large keyboard.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I actually use a PC for the forum.  It's so much easier to type with a large keyboard.

I often do as well... but also have it bookmarked on my phone.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I actually use a PC for the forum.  It's so much easier to type with a large keyboard.

 

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I often do as well... but also have it bookmarked on my phone.

It certainly is a lot easier to look at the models frames on PC as well. I typically use my phone to view the forums right before bed but a lot of the times it's on the PC. 

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