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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Thought it was supposed to be sunny for the weekend.

That thunderstorm reference is in southern OR.     Not western WA.

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It was a frosty 30 degrees when I left for work at 4am this morning.  It took some effort to get the truck door open.  It looks to be a nice day with even a little wind if we are lucky.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Striking large scale similarities to 2007/08, now becoming increasingly evident. Whether that continues remains to be seen, obviously, but it’s hard to ignore.

Interestingly that was a first year Nina that continued all the way through the next summer.    I hope next spring and early summer will be different than 2008.

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

F63FB913-8721-4D95-9BA0-CDE0EF4EA50E.thumb.png.c63f6e57365d8da29cbea620997ded7e.png

Synoptically speaking it’s quite similar to one actually. Decent midlevel convection. Hard to get those this late in the year, nigh impossible north of EUG due to lack of terrain enhancement after early Oct. barring some black swan convective event I’ve never heard of.

Only warm core thunderstorm I can remember up here in the winter was a nasty squall line on 2/22/2002. Think it was briefly severe in the south Willamette Valley. Weird setup south of a decaying baroclinic band and northerly push, probably kinda similar to this event actually.

Snowed a few weeks later!

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10 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We’ve had a number of them in recent years, haven’t we? Plus, it’s not precisely a balmy time of year even in average conditions. Trick-or-treating on chilly nights is just part of Halloween. At least the temperature isn’t dropping into the teens like it sometimes did in the Rockies.

I just looked back at Halloween stats here in the Snoqualmie Valley since 2009... the years when the low temp was below 40 were 2011, 2017, 2019, and 2020.    So we have had a run of clear, chilly weather (3 of the last 4 years).   Then you have years like 2012 and 2015 with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s.   I assume those came with rain as well.  

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15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Only warm core thunderstorm I can remember up here in the winter was a nasty squall line on 2/22/2002. Think it was briefly severe in the south Willamette Valley. Weird setup south of a decaying baroclinic band and northerly push, probably kinda similar to this event actually.

Snowed a few weeks later!

Was Feb 2015 squall line event warm core? I remember Salem getting frequent lightning and that one came from the south.

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12Z GFS is slower again with the front on Monday... keeping it dry and mild up here through the afternoon hours.   It also shows Tuesday and Wednesday being dry and pleasant.     Finish up that yard work.  👍

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1 minute ago, MWG said:

I just want another 2016-2017 repeat not much to ask right? 😂 and man the last 2 years has been so dry 😑

image.png.f9b24ec9e27e202bef7eb6f40fad6288.png

Got half inch of rain down there this morning. Wow, 07-08’ wasn’t bad down there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, MWG said:

I just want another 2016-2017 repeat not much to ask right? 😂 and man the last 2 years has been so dry 😑

image.png.f9b24ec9e27e202bef7eb6f40fad6288.png

Most of that 11.4 happened in one evening if I recall. 8.3" ?

That was one of the few snow events NWS nailed almost to the inch and it was forecast 48 hours out.

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Got half inch of rain down there this morning. Wow, 07-08’ wasn’t bad down there. 

I moved to Medford in 2010 but I remember every time I talked to my husband (b/f at that time) around that time he would be like oh it's snowing again and I'm like score!! I'm moving to a place that snow what a let down that was 😂

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4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Most of that 11.4 happened in one evening if I recall. 8.3" ?

That was one of the few snow events NWS nailed almost to the inch and it was forecast 48 hours out.

Correct! Where we at in south medford we got a foot of snow at the end of the event. 

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Managed to pull off a low of 32 this morning.  Still no east wind.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Surprising considering the wind has a strong easterly component here. 

There's such a strong north wind down the Sound it kills the east wind potential.  I'm very pleased about that.  Nice to have this mini cold snap to finish out the month to dovetail with that cold first half.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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It turns out the GFS outperformed the ECMWF with surface winds last night.  Regardless of what Phil says the ECMWF is losing its luster.  Maybe the ECMWF is still better with the big picture (not sure), but the GFS seems to be doing better with fine details lately.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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It appears there might be a better than 50% chance of no wind here tonight.  Might have a shot at upper 20s if it's calm most of the night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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SEA is running -1.8 for the month after yesterday.  Pretty solid.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It turns out the GFS outperformed the ECMWF with surface winds last night.  Regardless of what Phil says the ECMWF is losing its luster.  Maybe the ECMWF is still better with the big picture (not sure), but the GFS seems to be doing better with fine details lately.

I think you might be just focused on your backyard.   I looked at the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF wind maps for last night and they were almost identical.    Its hard to judge an entire global model on whether there was light breeze or it was calm in Covington WA last night.   ;)

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

SEA is running -1.8 for the month after yesterday.  Pretty solid.

So we want a warm November?   That is the magical combo.  

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Just checked and the KP index is only 1 this morning.  Still no sign of the CME.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you might be just focused on your backyard.   I looked at the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF wind maps for last night and they were almost identical.    Its hard to judge an entire global model on whether there was light breeze or it was calm in Covington WA last night.   ;)

The ECMWF has been consistently showing the strip of east winds here though.  I knew it was too aggressive with that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So we want a warm November?   That is the magical combo.  

With a Nina that combo is gold, although 1970 and 1955 were big exceptions.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has been consistently showing the strip of east winds here though.  I knew it was too aggressive with that.

Here is the 00Z GFS for yesterday night... it showed the same thing in your area.

 

gfs-deterministic-seattle-wnd10m_stream_mph-5570000.png

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

#ombm

I read the words for that acronym on the first try... that is pretty much true.  😀

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Did not see the Aurora last night so hopefully that means tonight will be a better shot. 40 degrees here on mount constitution. The NE wind is really strong right now probably 45mph. Can barely hear anything. 

82A461D8-0367-4654-AC1F-4A8E022F5C39.jpeg

991975DE-2362-40CA-BBC3-8CE5ACFD1704.jpeg

C9467426-B7F4-41F0-AACF-F49CE50332A3.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Did not see the Aurora last night so hopefully that means tonight will be a better shot. 40 degrees here on mount constitution. The NE wind is really strong right now probably 45mph. Can barely hear anything. 

82A461D8-0367-4654-AC1F-4A8E022F5C39.jpeg

991975DE-2362-40CA-BBC3-8CE5ACFD1704.jpeg

C9467426-B7F4-41F0-AACF-F49CE50332A3.jpeg

Looks deceptively calm.   Great pics.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks deceptively calm.   Great pics.

It is very loud the wind is constant and feels colder than 40 degrees even in the direct sun. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Orthogonally Multiplexed Biorthogonal Modulation

Nailed it!   Exactly what I came up with as well.  😁

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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East wind picking up here... warming up fast now.   

Interestingly... North Bend is still socked in with fog.  Its been clear here since dawn.    I assume that fog down below will get blown out soon.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was actually pretty stunned by how mild last night was given clear skies. Very warm morning. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Snowstorm on the 12z GFS.  Tis the season!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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37 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Did not see the Aurora last night so hopefully that means tonight will be a better shot. 40 degrees here on mount constitution. The NE wind is really strong right now probably 45mph. Can barely hear anything. 

82A461D8-0367-4654-AC1F-4A8E022F5C39.jpeg

991975DE-2362-40CA-BBC3-8CE5ACFD1704.jpeg

C9467426-B7F4-41F0-AACF-F49CE50332A3.jpeg

Yup....the CME did not hit last night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 hours ago, GobBluth said:

Does an early SSW guarantee a boring January and February?

These aren’t SSW events. But there is wave activity keeping the SPV off balance. Should that continue into Nov/Dec, it would increase the chances for high latitude blocking all by itself.

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Really impressive stuff late on this GFS run.  Lows tracking south of here and some good blocking.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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