PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44 with mostly clear Skies. 56/40 today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

GFS shows snow here next Monday.  

Score!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Much more palatable GFS run through day 10. Some mountain snow, fairly mild in the lowlands with onshore flow, but it will feel like late fall once we get towards the end of the work week. 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS actually looks pretty impressive for the 5 to 10 period with constantly below normal 850s and fairly active it would appear.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

44 with mostly clear Skies. 56/40 today. 

It's really hard to explain why you're having such a hard time getting cold nights there.  There's no reason you shouldn't have your first freeze by now, but it sounds like you haven't.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the surface obs the max temps appear consistently well below normal from day 4 or 5 onward.  Mins get colder during week two as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. As I was eluding to earlier, this is a great run overall. Fairly active, wet, nice mountain snowpack including southern British Columbia and northeastern Washington! C'MON!!!!

[Anti Marine Layer]

November in a few hours.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS - High/Low temps through Mon, 11/8. Chilly

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. As I was eluding to earlier, this is a great run overall. Fairly active, wet, nice mountain snowpack including southern British Columbia and northeastern Washington! C'MON!!!!

That’s a fantastic 10 day run for ncw/ new and mountains south. Waiting eagerly for first snow in the methow

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's really hard to explain why you're having such a hard time getting cold nights there.  There's no reason you shouldn't have your first freeze by now, but it sounds like you haven't.

I am much closer to you and there has not been an official freeze here either... and we still have roses blooming.    My wife did pull up the dahlias today though since she wanted to take advantage of the nice weather.

[snow_wizard]

Huge ridge later in the GFS run.  Wouldn't be shocking in a Nina November.  Good chance it would bring a huge inversion though.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Huge ridge later in the GFS run.  Wouldn't be shocking in a Nina November.  Good chance it would bring a huge inversion though.

The progression is outstanding Day 6-10+ and looks very reasonable. I like it!

00z ECMWF in 34 minutes

[NWbyNW]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

We’ve had 5-6 trick or treaters in the 11 years we’ve been here, although a couple of them might have just been attempted residential burglaries.

I raise you the zero trick-r-treaters I've had the past 11 years and the zero attempted burglaries.  My neighborhood is so boring. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

22 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

New place is in the dark blue zone!

Presently 37˚F here. Looks good for another freeze tonight… assuming the easterlies from the Fraser Canyon don’t spoil it.

[GHweatherChris]

22 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

November in a few hours.

[snow drift]

31 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. As I was eluding to earlier, this is a great run overall. Fairly active, wet, nice mountain snowpack including southern British Columbia and northeastern Washington! C'MON!!!!

5/5 dendrites...1/5 from the Russian judge

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Madden aka Captain Obvious

[snow drift]

45 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS - High/Low temps through Mon, 11/8. Chilly

Nice November weather

[SouthHillFrosty]

On my 20th piece of candy…. I need some vegetables 

[LowerGarfield]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

On my 20th piece of candy…. I need some vegetables 

Kind of like the Seahawks scoring on an onside kick up several scores late...Candy is good but gotta get some real food too.

Weather watching is a lot like Halloween if you think about it. No houses like Pepto pink for snow though.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Already pinched 3 almondjoys off the kiddo's bag.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF-GFS shows several fast moving frontal waves which as they move through tighten the pressure gradient quite sufficiently with favorable perpendicular gradient packing. I would not rule out gusts 35-45mph+ with those. Well, assuming it actually happens.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Already pinched 3 almondjoys off the kiddo's bag.

Ya…parents only putting almond joys out for other parents. Pro move. 

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

On my 20th piece of candy…. I need some vegetables 

Bah gawd…that’s wilford Brimleys music!!

[Gradient Keeper]

58 minutes until we all move over ---------> To the November thread. Here we go!!!!

[MossMan]

My road is dark and scary at night…No tricker treaters here in the four Halloween’s that we have lived at this location. 

[Gradient Keeper]

27 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

On my 20th piece of candy…. I need some vegetables 

Nah....

[LowerGarfield]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My road is dark and scary at night…No tricker treaters here in the four Halloween’s that we have lived at this location. 

Is that out by 300th? There's a short cut my in-laws would always take rather than Pioneer to get over by the HS.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM(Canadian) also real wet.

[Geos]

Closing out the month with upper 30s and mostly clear skies. Little hints of ground fog here and there.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Is that out by 300th? There's a short cut my in-laws would always take rather than Pioneer to get over by the HS.

Our road does connect up to 300th, we are on the east side of I-5 and just north of 300th. 

[RentonHill]

What do I tell my kid when he wakes up and all his candy is gone 

@SouthHillFrosty got it?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

What do I tell my kid when he wakes up and all his candy is gone 

@SouthHillFrosty got it?

Yea tell them the Grinch came early stole Halloween candy instead of Christmas

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles - Seattle

[Gradient Keeper]

Fairbanks, AK record warmth is ending soon.

[Kolk1604]

Thursday and Sunday could be fun!!

 

[The Blob]

How are the aurora looking?

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Thursday and Sunday could be fun!!

 

Not to dissimilar from the WRF-GFS. Here we go!

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the east wind pisses me off when it costs my area a cold night.  Still might calm down before morning, but not a lot of confidence in that.  

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt the east wind pisses me off when it costs my area a cold night.  Still might calm down before morning, but not a lot of confidence in that.  

It only pisses me off when I dries me out and eats all my snow. Such a ***** 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt the east wind pisses me off when it costs my area a cold night.  Still might calm down before morning, but not a lot of confidence in that.  

Whereas I like the strong east winds lol. It's increasing again as we speak.

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Whereas I like the strong east winds lol. It's increasing again as we speak.

I like wind and snow together.

[Gradient Keeper]

November thread

 

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Fairbanks, AK record warmth is ending soon.

No doubt the propensity for extremes is still going strong.  They will probably freeze their arses off now.  It's only a matter of time for us.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Up to 33˚F after a low of 32 earlier. Obviously a little low-level advection going on.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we have already had 0.01” of rain today. Looked out and saw some stars though. 45

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like we have already had 0.01” of rain today. Looked out and saw some stars though. 45

Its November... new topic is up.

[kokaneekidz]

push over to Nov thread