PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[snow drift]

This weekend sure looks gorgeous. ☀

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, snow drift said:

Spokane roads are horrible. You're better off driving a Conestoga wagon around town.

Still better than those on the Palouse. Moscow/Pullman roads always need lots of work. But the beauty of the hills makes up for it.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF - Lots of east wind for PDX, Gorge on this run.

[Geos]

Been a quite night for rain in the Kirkland and Bothell areas. Saw a little bit of sun after 5pm today.

[Gradient Keeper]

15 minutes ago, iFred said:

Pretty blustery to downright windy tonight in Everett. The location I am in is a bit strange, where we have multiple layers of wind shadow, rain shadow, and snow shadow.

For the winds, the Olympics shadow most events, only giving us gusts as the low is over the strait or somewhere past Tofino. Then if we get winds in the right spot, as I am in the valley, surface winds over shoot the plateau and we are left with eddies. The flip side is we get evening southerlies as winds are drawn out of the Skykomish valley and follow the river out to Possession Sound

Then there is the rain shadow. Typically Olympic nonsense, with rain just north of Marysville or just south of 112th, and this isn't really accounting for convergence zone activities. When the convergence zone shows up, we are just a touch too north, unless the southeries are strong, but by that point the westerlies from the strait start mashing the precip against Granite Falls meth'd out face.

When we get winds from the north, then usually the CZ settles over the city proper and if the cards are played just right, winds off the sound, winds from the north, and winds from the south, create this weird situation where precip just hangs over north Everett for a few hours. Some of you might remember a story in 2019 about North Everett flash flooding, that was due to a rain event like that. Fingers crossed it can happen when the surface is below freezing.

The last **** shadow is the oh so special snow shadow that exists. This is a bit different than the normal precip shadows. Winds from the Skykomish valley often fire up when we have our mediocre arctic events, they are just strong enough to eat through moisture, keep temps just above freezing. In our February snow blitz, our neighborhood seemed to be the absolute last place in the city limits with snow, but the only one recording winds. Fingers crossed that this somehow pays off with fake cold fog rime and a fun looking icing event.

Crazy microclimates!

[Gradient Keeper]

12:20 AM Radar Update

[TacomaWaWx]

Got nailed here just a bit ago…some really heavy rain. Finished yesterday with 0.37”. 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Got nailed here just a bit ago…some really heavy rain. Finished yesterday with 0.37”. 

Almost exactly the same here.  4.05 for the month so far.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the last few CFS seasonal runs have gone balls to the wall cold for January.  Pretty impressive to see monthly anoms that sharp.  I'll post some maps later...I'm tired.

[Geos]

Was mostly clear when I last looked with clouds to the east. Moon was shining brightly in the east sky.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

FWIW the last few CFS seasonal runs have gone balls to the wall cold for January.  Pretty impressive to see monthly anoms that sharp.  I'll post some maps later...I'm tired.

Plz post CFS mapz 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Plz post CFS mapz 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hmmm....

[Phil]

12 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I could see myself moving somewhere that just gets more extremes overall with more defined seasons. Maybe eastern WA or OR. They get more consistent snowfalls and more sunshine overall. Maybe the overcast will wear on me more when I get older I don’t think it does because I’m just so used to it. 

I think a lot of you guys would enjoy coastal Maine/NH. Geographically/aesthetically it’s very similar to lowland PNW with similarly cool/foggy summers and those beautiful conifers, but top tier winters with blizzards and hurricane force winds guaranteed essentially every year. Plus actual hurricanes and severe weather too. If I ever retire it’ll probably be up there (or in Colorado).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think a lot of you guys would enjoy coastal Maine/NH. Geographically/aesthetically it’s very similar to lowland PNW with similarly cool/foggy summers and those beautiful conifers, but top tier winters with blizzards and hurricane force winds guaranteed essentially every year. Plus actual hurricanes and severe weather too. If I ever retire it’ll probably be up there (or in Colorado).

I was really into Maine for a while. Never been there, but they had extremely low housing prices before the pandemic. Like everything else they are pretty inflated now. 

[Meatyorologist]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think a lot of you guys would enjoy coastal Maine/NH. Geographically/aesthetically it’s very similar to lowland PNW with similarly cool/foggy summers and those beautiful conifers, but top tier winters with blizzards and hurricane force winds guaranteed essentially every year. Plus actual hurricanes and severe weather too. If I ever retire it’ll probably be up there (or in Colorado).

Fuuuuuuuckkk the ticks. I've had Lyme disease before and I never want to get it again. Even just two months of that crap was enough to give me lingering eye issues.

[Meatyorologist]

06z is active and also very wet for Seattle in particular.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z is active and also very wet for Seattle in particular.

I luv it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmm my automatic gauge doesn't seem to be working, it was pouring overnight, and nothing recorded. Good thing we still have the manual...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmm my automatic gauge doesn't seem to be working, it was pouring overnight, and nothing recorded. Good thing we still have the manual...

I don't know what happened to mine either. Just stopped working one day.

[AlTahoe]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

1970 continues to show up as an analog on tonight's GFS run.  That has been there for days now.

Another one making a consistent appearance is 1962.  That one is certainly interesting.

1962 was hot trash for the Sierra. Tahoe city had the lowest snow total ever recorded during the months of Oct - March during that winter with 17.5" We are currently at 13" already so probably not the best Analog.

Then March and April 1963 dumped 130" of snow. Who wants 70" of snow in April? 

We had 104" in Dec 1970 so I will allow that as an Analog  

[Front Ranger]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It gets pretty brown here in the summer most of the time.  It certainly did this year.

Yeah, but you still have all those evergreen trees.

[Anti Marine Layer]

13 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

1962 was hot trash for the Sierra. Tahoe city had the lowest snow total ever recorded during the months of Oct - March during that winter with 17.5" We are currently at 13" already so probably not the best Analog.

Then March and April 1963 dumped 130" of snow. Who wants 70" of snow in April? 

We had 104" in Dec 1970 so I will allow that as an Analog  

The reservoirs do.

[TacomaWaWx]

Picked up 0.23” since midnight up to 3.31” on the month now. Low of 47 this morning. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we made it down to 47F. A few clouds currently.

[LowerGarfield]

Very consistent the last few mornings with 52F just over an hour ago. Clear outside at the moment.

[BLI snowman]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

I think a lot of you guys would enjoy coastal Maine/NH. Geographically/aesthetically it’s very similar to lowland PNW with similarly cool/foggy summers and those beautiful conifers, but top tier winters with blizzards and hurricane force winds guaranteed essentially every year. Plus actual hurricanes and severe weather too. If I ever retire it’ll probably be up there (or in Colorado).

I got spend a couple days up in Acadia the week before last during my New England visit. Definitely lots of old pine growth in the park. Also threw in a shot of Portland Head.

And yes, even a maritime climate like Bar Harbor, which sits on an island, averages about 70" of snow annually. And that's at 44N.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

1962 was hot trash for the Sierra. Tahoe city had the lowest snow total ever recorded during the months of Oct - March during that winter with 17.5" We are currently at 13" already so probably not the best Analog.

Then March and April 1963 dumped 130" of snow. Who wants 70" of snow in April? 

We had 104" in Dec 1970 so I will allow that as an Analog  

Yeah, I looked it up for here. January 1963 had a pretty wicked arctic blast. Silverton had a 23/7 day. Salem had a 25/12 day. Then there was a nice snow event late in the month too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 7.13" on the month. We may make it to 8.5", Friday is looking juicy. 

[snow_wizard]

9 hours ago, iFred said:

Pretty blustery to downright windy tonight in Everett. The location I am in is a bit strange, where we have multiple layers of wind shadow, rain shadow, and snow shadow.

For the winds, the Olympics shadow most events, only giving us gusts as the low is over the strait or somewhere past Tofino. Then if we get winds in the right spot, as I am in the valley, surface winds over shoot the plateau and we are left with eddies. The flip side is we get evening southerlies as winds are drawn out of the Skykomish valley and follow the river out to Possession Sound

Then there is the rain shadow. Typically Olympic nonsense, with rain just north of Marysville or just south of 112th, and this isn't really accounting for convergence zone activities. When the convergence zone shows up, we are just a touch too north, unless the southeries are strong, but by that point the westerlies from the strait start mashing the precip against Granite Falls meth'd out face.

When we get winds from the north, then usually the CZ settles over the city proper and if the cards are played just right, winds off the sound, winds from the north, and winds from the south, create this weird situation where precip just hangs over north Everett for a few hours. Some of you might remember a story in 2019 about North Everett flash flooding, that was due to a rain event like that. Fingers crossed it can happen when the surface is below freezing.

The last **** shadow is the oh so special snow shadow that exists. This is a bit different than the normal precip shadows. Winds from the Skykomish valley often fire up when we have our mediocre arctic events, they are just strong enough to eat through moisture, keep temps just above freezing. In our February snow blitz, our neighborhood seemed to be the absolute last place in the city limits with snow, but the only one recording winds. Fingers crossed that this somehow pays off with fake cold fog rime and a fun looking icing event.

I remember several years ago (probably 25 or so) there was a C-Zone north of its normal location and places from Everett to just north of Lake Stevens got smashed with heavy snow for hours.  I was living just north of Woodinville at the time, and I was SO jealous.  You probably would have cleaned up on that one.

I know what you mean about microclimates seeming to be against you though.  I've seen it too many times here.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I looked it up for here. January 1963 had a pretty wicked arctic blast. Silverton had a 23/7 day. Salem had a 25/12 day. Then there was a nice snow event late in the month too. 

For the United States collectively January 1963 was ridiculously cold.  In fact I think Europe joined us on that too.  All of the cold air was getting transported to the mid latitudes that winter.

[Randyc321]

14 hours ago, The Blob said:

Let's all move to South Dakota 

Some of us actually like Western Wa. I CHOSE to be here and am quite happy.   Also happy there are no interstates around me.  I lived in SoCal till I was 40.  16 years ago I came up here.  I hate hot summers and except for our occasional historic heat wave, we have the best summers in the Country. Also, snow all winter long?  No thanks, too tedious.   I Love Washington. 

 

Besides, all those road signs in SD.  Where the Hell is Wall Drug.  Just kidding.  Been there.

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I got spend a couple days up in Acadia the week before last during my New England visit. Definitely lots of old pine growth in the park. Also threw in a shot of Portland Head.

And yes, even a maritime climate like Bar Harbor, which sits on an island, averages about 70" of snow annually. And that's at 44N.

 

Maine is certainly on my list of states I would like to live in.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

Some of us actually like Western Wa. I CHOSE to be here and am quite happy.   Also happy there are no interstates around me.  I lived in SoCal till I was 40.  16 years ago I came up here.  I hate hot summers and except for our occasional historic heat wave, we have the best summers in the Country. Also, snow all winter long?  No thanks, too tedious.   I Love Washington. 

 

Besides, all those road signs in SD.  Where the Hell is Wall Drug.  Just kidding.  Been there.

There are plenty of places in WA that have snow on the ground all winter.  It's finding the places that have just the right mix to suit somebody's individual taste.  Literally a place for pretty much every climate taste in this state.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I don't know what happened to mine either. Just stopped working one day.

I highly recommend one of the three piece plastic rain gauges.  They have a large outer tube, a funnel, and a small inner tube that has 0.01 increments to 1 inch.  In total they measure 11 inches of precip, and when it snows you remove the funnel and inner tube and let the snow collect in the outer part which is later melted and measured in the inner tuber.  Very accurate.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I looked it up for here. January 1963 had a pretty wicked arctic blast. Silverton had a 23/7 day. Salem had a 25/12 day. Then there was a nice snow event late in the month too. 

The January 1963 blast is actually right up there for the West overall. Las Vegas had a high of 29 on the 12th and then their all time record low of 8 on the 13th. And Denver had an all time record cold -9/-25 day on the 11th.

Of course 1962-63 was also a legendary winter for the UK and brutally cold in the Eastern U.S. Lot of supercharged airmasses that season.

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Some of us actually like Western Wa. I CHOSE to be here and am quite happy.   Also happy there are no interstates around me.  I lived in SoCal till I was 40.  16 years ago I came up here.  I hate hot summers and except for our occasional historic heat wave, we have the best summers in the Country. Also, snow all winter long?  No thanks, too tedious.   I Love Washington. 

 

Besides, all those road signs in SD.  Where the Hell is Wall Drug.  Just kidding.  Been there.

I’m 22 and lived here my whole life. I definitely plan on staying in Washington…I would consider oregon too though but most likely will stay here. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Wettest October since 2017 is a lock here…had 5.76” that month probably will get to 4.5-5” this time around. Coming off of 4.06” in September the drought has mostly been eliminated here in western WA. Still lots of work to be done to catch up in eastern WA and down south obviously. 
 This maps data is as of October 19th..has been a pretty decent amount of rainfall since then so things are definitely looking much better. Map should have us out of the abnormally dry by the time the next map is released tomorrow. 

[snow_wizard]

The weekend is looking delightfully crisp.  Going to be a nice change of pace.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The weekend is looking delightfully crisp.  Going to be a nice change of pace.

Going to be camping this weekend…looks dry and should be much chillier at night compared to the last 2 weeks. Will be nice to get some dry weather after 10 consecutive days with rain should be able to get some kayaking in.