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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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12z Euro looks a whole lot different late next week. Pretty significant early season backdoor blast with lots of high latitude blocking.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Also going to try to get a camping trip in this Saturday with a couple buddies. We're thinking somewhere in the Canyon Creek area near Baker. Looking like crisp and clear weather for the weekend, I hope there's still some snow on the ground at 4500' after the firehosing tomorrow. 

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Yeah 1970-71 was a great winter. Not extreme on the cold, but that cold snap in late February/early March was record breaking in some areas. Great January snow event too. 

November 22nd, 1970 must have been a significant Willamette Valley ice storm? I see SLE was 31/27 that day with 0.63" of precip. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, mtep said:

Also going to try to get a camping trip in this Saturday with a couple buddies. We're thinking somewhere in the Canyon Creek area near Baker. Looking like crisp and clear weather for the weekend, I hope there's still some snow on the ground at 4500' after the firehosing tomorrow. 

The models are showing some impressive cold temps for the North Cascades Friday night.  Looks like single digits and teens.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah 1970-71 was a great winter. Not extreme on the cold, but that cold snap in late February/early March was record breaking in some areas. Great January snow event too. 

November 22nd, 1970 must have been a significant Willamette Valley ice storm? I see SLE was 31/27 that day with 0.63" of precip. 

Pretty much everyone got a turn or turns that winter.  As I mentioned Whatcom County got absolutely nailed in December that winter.  That season was a nearly perfect base state match and the observed weather in October / analogs are very close.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, speaking of big blasts of cold air into the middle of the CONUS and most the country.

ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.thumb.png.5a29e8cc1afcc17c523c6bdd94260d1a.png

The blocking late in the rain is insane.  Nice to see!

  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like the models will have some serious work to do untangling the mess for week two at this point.  Interesting to note last night's GEM was the first to introduce the look that today's ECMWF has.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Coast to coast cold

The only other month I know of that was that crazy was February 1899.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, speaking of big blasts of cold air into the middle of the CONUS and most the country.

ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.thumb.png.5a29e8cc1afcc17c523c6bdd94260d1a.png

Incredible to see how displaced the cold is from the high latitude regions.  Not sure I've seen that to this degree so early in the season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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14 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Been a pretty showery dull Month so far.  Measurable rain on 20 out of 27 days and total rainfall is only near normal to this point.  Tomorrow will likely push us a fair bit above normal 

I was thinking the same thing this morning... its rained on way more days than normal for October in the Seattle area but rainfall was exactly average through yesterday.

I prefer the opposite... lots of rain on a few days and more dry days.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Been a pretty showery dull Month so far.  Measurable rain on 20 out of 27 days and total rainfall is only near normal to this point.  Tomorrow will likely push us a fair bit above normal 

Yeah this fall hasn’t had anything terribly unusual so far. Probably the most interesting things were the AR in mid September and the “bomb cyclone” but those weren’t terribly impactful. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Could this recent "big storm" we had this past weekend be the start of a new climactic pattern and the end of an old one?  This theory was posed years ago for those who aren't sure what I am blabbing on about.

It can be read in depth here.   The author is Wolf Read, who seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth after 2016.  Interesting.  He seemed so interested in weather.

 

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2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Could this recent "big storm" we had this past weekend be the start of a new climactic pattern and the end of an old one?  This theory was posed years ago for those who aren't sure what I am blabbing on about.

It can be read in depth here.   The author is Wolf Read, who seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth after 2016.  Interesting.  He seemed so interested in weather.

 

Actually, Wolf Read has a weather blog out there called Coquitlam Weather-- here:

Coquitlam Weather and Climate – Being a description of the atmospheric environment of British Columbia's Lower Mainland including Metro Vancouver, and sometimes well beyond, often through the lens of personal weather observations in Coquitlam (wordpress.com)

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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8 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Could this recent "big storm" we had this past weekend be the start of a new climactic pattern and the end of an old one?  This theory was posed years ago for those who aren't sure what I am blabbing on about.

It can be read in depth here.   The author is Wolf Read, who seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth after 2016.  Interesting.  He seemed so interested in weather.

 

Love reading his storm posts. Partly because the park in Renton he checks out every time is the one right next to my house. 

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On 10/26/2021 at 5:59 AM, Phil said:

If you’re looking for arctic cold mid winter, it might actually be preferable to have +WPO (and/or +PNA) dominate Nov/Dec, since that pattern opens conduits for +WAFz and a subsequent W1 response by the SPV. Given the -QBO, we’ll have a more favorable deposition of momentum (vs +QBO) should the SPV take a body blow.

There *are* other conduits to blocking and/or SSW that don’t require an unfavorable pattern for the west, but that is the most efficient one.

We saw it in Nov/Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Jan 2018, and Jan 2021. In the latter three cases it occurred so late in the winter the benefits didn’t show up until February.

In 2016 it was a tad early and weaker (no actual SSW) but that was a Niña/+QBO which can amplify the Aleutian/GOA High very easily.

Those Niña/+QBO years (thru 30-50mb) almost always perform in the PNW, regardless of strat dynamics..1995/96, 2008/09, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2016/17, 2020/21 were all Niña/+QBO.

If I recall correctly, you said it was the SSW that saved the PNW 2020/21 winter. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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8 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Bookmarked. Good to know that he’s still around. Didn’t know that he still have a blog up!  Have always enjoyed reading his analyses. 

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52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking the same thing this morning... its rained on way more days than normal for October in the Seattle area but rainfall was exactly average through yesterday.

I prefer the opposite... lots of rain on a few days and more dry days.  😀

Crazy how one storm can change everything. You can basically see the path it took here.

MonthPNormWRCC.thumb.png.089c49728064766283c929f62c1ba6f5.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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41 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Could this recent "big storm" we had this past weekend be the start of a new climactic pattern and the end of an old one?  This theory was posed years ago for those who aren't sure what I am blabbing on about.

It can be read in depth here.   The author is Wolf Read, who seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth after 2016.  Interesting.  He seemed so interested in weather.

 

Weird. I read this post after posting the one above...

A forum for the end of the world.

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8 hours ago, Phil said:

I think a lot of you guys would enjoy coastal Maine/NH. Geographically/aesthetically it’s very similar to lowland PNW with similarly cool/foggy summers and those beautiful conifers, but top tier winters with blizzards and hurricane force winds guaranteed essentially every year. Plus actual hurricanes and severe weather too. If I ever retire it’ll probably be up there (or in Colorado).

Just came back from a New England trip a week ago.  Really love coastal Maine, NH and NE Massachusetts.  I think I could live there, but my wife wasn't so sure.  I really like lighthouses and saw 13 on the trip. Maine itself has 65 lighthouses, though many are on islands and only visible from a boat.

IMG_20211015_142703020.jpg

IMG_20211016_143437554.jpg

IMG_20211015_161915210_HDR.jpg

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8 hours ago, Phil said:

I think a lot of you guys would enjoy coastal Maine/NH. Geographically/aesthetically it’s very similar to lowland PNW with similarly cool/foggy summers and those beautiful conifers, but top tier winters with blizzards and hurricane force winds guaranteed essentially every year. Plus actual hurricanes and severe weather too. If I ever retire it’ll probably be up there (or in Colorado).

I’ve posted this before but figured I’d bring it out for an encore since we’re talking about New England and getting excited about snow. This is a nor’easter in Portsmouth NH. 

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4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

LR GFS for the past several runs have gone full blown +EPO w/ a solid AK vortex. Hopefully that serves as a conduit for a SPV weakening come December.

The ideal W1 conduit is via +WPO/NW-Pacific (and/or Aleutian) low.

If anything, -PNA/+EPO may inhibit +WAFz thru NPAC. But then again, I don’t see much evidence of that pattern developing anytime soon, minus a few days here and there.

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just met with our realtor and sounds like we will be putting the house up on the market in February. We have a couple fairly minor projects to finish up, like redoing our cabinets, so between that and the holidays she recommended a February listing to also get in before the rush of the spring market.

So looks like I'll get to enjoy one last PNW winter before we move. Let's hope it's a good one!! :) 

Hope you get a good price for it then, sale prices have been steadily dropping lately.

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1 hour ago, Requiem said:

Oh sweet!  Thanks!  Glad he is still doing stuff.  Shame he moved, but a lot of it is similar to our weather and tied in anyways I guess. :)  Thanks. 

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the ECMWF caved to the GFS again with the late week trough.  850s are 5C lower on this run vs yesterday's 12z.  I think the GFS may be the better model now.

Not even close. The ECMWF is light years ahead of the GFS. In fact the ECMWF was better in 2009 than the GFS is in 2021. :lol:

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1 hour ago, AbbyJr said:

If I recall correctly, you said it was the SSW that saved the PNW 2020/21 winter. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Yes. There were non-stratosphere issues in 2020/21 that were helping to maintain a more zonal NPAC (until February).

This winter might have the “zonal problem” as well if things go awry in December.

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15 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I’ve posted this before but figured I’d bring it out for an encore since we’re talking about New England and getting excited about snow. This is a nor’easter in Portsmouth NH. 

Beautiful 😍. Haven’t had a scene like that here since 2016.

Can get a lot more intense than that video, too!

 

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4 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

We missed a Nor'easter by a week. Kind of disappointed...

Portsmouth was a nice city.

Upsides/downsides. The one that just hit here ruined the foliage season before it peaked. More than half of trees were stripped bare, the ones that weren’t are still fully green (mostly oaks). 

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