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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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6 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

All dark cloud no bite!  Just some moderate rain, no wind or boomers here. 

I was totally unprepared for this line i thought we were all done after noon today. I think I just caught the north edge of this...i give it a 6/10. Good wind, decent rain, short lived. 

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28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.11” so far on the day, .20” for the month, 35.28” for the year. 
55/50 on the day.

Currently 54. 

0.39” today, 59.34” for the year!*

October is a beautiful PNW month, whether sunny & crisp, or cool & damp. 

*I added in a neighbor’s rain gauge data for the first 20 days of January, when my weather station wasn’t fully set up

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New euro seasonal has a more zonal solution, somewhat similar to 2007/08 and 1974/75 @ 500mb.

Also a weaker SSW/blocking signal, obviously. More of the deepest arctic cold is bottled up north (vs the September run).

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Dr. Roundy’s low-pass tropical forcing analogs have also been drifting towards a more zonal looking NPAC.

Solution ends up with too much -WPO relative to -EPO which sends the mother load of Arctic air into Eurasia, while allowing heights to rise in the SW US.

Gets somewhat interesting in January, but verbatim that Beaufort/western-Arctic vortex is a problem.

120 day animation, out to January 31st:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html

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Just now, Phil said:

Dr. Roundy’s low-pass tropical forcing analogs have also been drifting towards a more zonal looking NPAC.

Solution ends up with too much -WPO relative to -EPO which sends a most of the cold into Eurasia while allowing heights to rise in the SW US.

120 day animation, out to January 31st:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html

So no changes for this location from the last couple years. More status-quo.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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34 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I was totally unprepared for this line i thought we were all done after noon today. I think I just caught the north edge of this...i give it a 6/10. Good wind, decent rain, short lived. 

Looked really cool coming across the Sound.  Took its time as well. Des Moines got hit pretty good according to the radar.

Sunny now and 54*

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18 minutes ago, Phil said:

New euro seasonal has a more zonal solution, somewhat similar to 2007/08 and 1974/75 @ 500mb.

Also a weaker SSW/blocking signal, obviously. More of the deepest arctic cold is bottled up north (vs the September run).

Both of those winters were very snowy here.

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We’re up to 27.39” for the year currently…think we will go over 40” for 2021. Had 44.24” last year. 54/49 0.25” today. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Pretty darn cold out there this evening.  Currently 51 after a 53/45 range today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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43 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dr. Roundy’s low-pass tropical forcing analogs have also been drifting towards a more zonal looking NPAC.

Solution ends up with too much -WPO relative to -EPO which sends the mother load of Arctic air into Eurasia, while allowing heights to rise in the SW US.

Gets somewhat interesting in January, but verbatim that Beaufort/western-Arctic vortex is a problem.

120 day animation, out to January 31st:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html

We'll see.  I'm just not feeling a 2007-08 outcome this winter.  Maybe more like 1970-71 which was a tad less zonal.  We had a much stronger Nina and deeper minus QBO than we will have this winter.

The updated ECMWF still has a decent signal for a GOA ridge in January.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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46 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So no changes for this location from the last couple years. More status-quo.

It's only one guy's opinion.  I think the recurring GOA ridge is going to pay us at least some dividends this winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Talk about perfect timing for it to clear out.  The models sure nailed that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. No way this can happen so early in the season.

 

This will be either a really good or bad thing for us lol. Get the feeling some interesting things might happen this year…already had the most anomalous ridge of all time so maybe some significant anomalous troughing and cold?

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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49 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. No way this can happen so early in the season.

 

I swear to god if we get an October 1935 redux followed by just about nothing for the rest of the winter I-

 

For reference, 1935-36 season went:

October: Highs in the mid 30s on 10/29 and 10/30. No snow. A hair dry and chilly.

November: High of 39 on the 1st then slow warmup. No snow. Half normal precip and chilly.

December: warm and dry. No snow. All but 7 days warmer than normal (and that's using 1991-2020 climo).

January: Wet but also mild. Also just 7 days below average.

February: Like a warmer and drier February 2019. No snow until some random nighttime onshore slop later in the month after the initial arctic intrusion. Still very cold but nothing memorable. A tad wet.

March: Increasingly chilly with a high of 39 on 3/27. An inch of slush. Dry and chilly.

April: Another inch of slush on 4/1. Starts torching on the 9th and doesn't stop. Warm and torridly dry, makes April 2021 look like a washout.

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Gonna go camping the 10th-12th out on Anderson island…looks pretty wet Sunday on the euro but f*ck it I’m going. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Crucify me at the stake for saying this if you must, but analogs don’t mean sh*t in my opinion. 
 

The recorded reliable and detailed weather history is unbelievably short and insignificant in the scheme of things. It is not reliably possible to make long-term predictions based on previous years with some similar attributes. There are far too many variables without even factoring in man-made or man-expedited change. 
 

Did any analogs show PDX having a warm winter followed by a handily record dry spring followed by the hottest temperature of all-time by 9 degrees at the beginning of summer? 
 

Mother Nature will do what she wants. We have gotten very good at short-term forecasting and forecasting likely trends in the mid-term. Long-term… we suck.

I can’t tell you how many times I have seen weekly, monthly, and seasonal forecasts completely bust. So much so that a monkey seemingly has the same odds of forecasting weather as the most skilled human forecaster when dealing with anything beyond a couple of weeks out. 

Data mining will continue to improve as the amount of data increases and computers continue to get smarter. For now, we can’t do much more than provide a guess by an educated person. Not even an educated guess.

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I swear to god if we get an October 1935 redux followed by just about nothing for the rest of the winter I-

 

For reference, 1935-36 season went:

October: Highs in the mid 30s on 10/29 and 10/30. No snow. A hair dry and chilly.

November: High of 39 on the 1st then slow warmup. No snow. Half normal precip and chilly.

December: warm and dry. No snow. All but 7 days warmer than normal (and that's using 1991-2020 climo).

January: Wet but also mild. Also just 7 days below average.

February: Like a warmer and drier February 2019. No snow until some random nighttime onshore slop later in the month after the initial arctic intrusion. Still very cold but nothing memorable. A tad wet.

March: Increasingly chilly with a high of 39 on 3/27. An inch of slush. Dry and chilly.

April: Another inch of slush on 4/1. Starts torching on the 9th and doesn't stop. Warm and torridly dry, makes April 2021 look like a washout.

Uh....1936 was the coldest February of the 20th century, and March also had the greatest late season cold and snow event on record.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, MWG said:

Currently 55 and raining! 

Happy Girl GIF by Ethan Barnowsky

Been a glorious day. Raining all day and pleasantly cool.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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33 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Crucify me at the stake for saying this if you must, but analogs don’t mean sh*t in my opinion. 
 

The recorded reliable and detailed weather history is unbelievably short and insignificant in the scheme of things. It is not reliably possible to make long-term predictions based on previous years with some similar attributes. There are far too many variables without even factoring in man-made or man-expedited change. 
 

Did any analogs show PDX having a warm winter followed by a handily record dry spring followed by the hottest temperature of all-time by 9 degrees at the beginning of summer? 
 

Mother Nature will do what she wants. We have gotten very good at short-term forecasting and forecasting likely trends in the mid-term. Long-term… we suck.

I can’t tell you how many times I have seen weekly, monthly, and seasonal forecasts completely bust. So much so that a monkey seemingly has the same odds of forecasting weather as the most skilled human forecaster when dealing with anything beyond a couple of weeks out. 

Data mining will continue to improve as the amount of data increases and computers continue to get smarter. For now, we can’t do much more than provide a guess by an educated person. Not even an educated guess.

I think there is truth to what you say.

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28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I still think the hammer comes down Thanksgiving weekend. 

I'm still not sure exactly what the best window is going to be this winter.  December almost seems too obvious.  Interestingly the long range models all like January for us this time.  I'm going to stick to my December call though.  Just too many signs for it. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looks like we had 0.93” of rain at the house today according to my father in law who is staying there while we are gone. Said afternoon high was in the upper 40s and the skies were clearing at sunset. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Uh....1936 was the coldest February of the 20th century, and March also had the greatest late season cold and snow event on record.

Two highs below freezing in February, which wasn't terrible. But February 2019 pulled that off AND got 20" of snow too boot. Granted if things swung a little differently it could have been an epic snow producer, I'll give you that.

As for March, though, come on. Barely escaped 40F. Yes it was a good airmass for that time of year, but at that time of year "good airmasses" are underwhelming. Doesn't really count IMO.

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36 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Crucify me at the stake for saying this if you must, but analogs don’t mean sh*t in my opinion. 
 

The recorded reliable and detailed weather history is unbelievably short and insignificant in the scheme of things. It is not reliably possible to make long-term predictions based on previous years with some similar attributes. There are far too many variables without even factoring in man-made or man-expedited change. 
 

Did any analogs show PDX having a warm winter followed by a handily record dry spring followed by the hottest temperature of all-time by 9 degrees at the beginning of summer? 
 

Mother Nature will do what she wants. We have gotten very good at short-term forecasting and forecasting likely trends in the mid-term. Long-term… we suck.

I can’t tell you how many times I have seen weekly, monthly, and seasonal forecasts completely bust. So much so that a monkey seemingly has the same odds of forecasting weather as the most skilled human forecaster when dealing with anything beyond a couple of weeks out. 

Data mining will continue to improve as the amount of data increases and computers continue to get smarter. For now, we can’t do much more than provide a guess by an educated person. Not even an educated guess.

Kind of a defeatist attitude.  If everyone felt like this we wouldn't even try to make long range predictions.  

There is some truth to what you say, but you are way too dismissive of the progress that's been made in long range forecasting.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not sure exactly what the best window is going to be this winter.  December almost seems too obvious.  Interestingly the long range models all like January for us this time.  I'm going to stick to my December call though.  Just too many signs for it. 

You’re a lot more bullish than I am.

These Niña/-QBO years often have amazing-looking patterns in the autumn then whimper out before the solstice. Not always, but quite often.

If we don’t see substantial amplification in Nov/Dec, odds of a blocky J/F/M could dwindle to almost nothing.

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Two highs below freezing in February, which wasn't terrible. But February 2019 pulled that off AND got 20" of snow too boot. Granted if things swung a little differently it could have been an epic snow producer, I'll give you that.

As for March, though, come on. Barely escaped 40F. Yes it was a good airmass for that time of year, but at that time of year "good airmasses" are underwhelming. Doesn't really count IMO.

The Seattle records don't begin to do that month justice.  The outlying areas like where I live had a monthly average well below freezing that month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

You’re a lot more bullish than I am.

These Niña/-QBO years often have amazing-looking patterns in the autumn then whimper out before the solstice. Not always, but quite often.

If we don’t see substantial amplification in Nov/Dec, odds of a blocky J/F/M could dwindle to almost nothing.

I'm giving some weight to the overall amplified base state we have been in for a while now and also being just past an amazing solar minimum.  A rip roaring zonal flow just doesn't seem that likely to me this winter.  Even 2007-08 came really close to nailing us a few times.

People have also been talking a lot about major SSW events being likely this winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Salem had a high of 24 in mid February 1936 I believe. Speaking of SLE they had their first sub 60 high of the season today!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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In March 1936 there was a low 18 in Landsburg on the 31st and a 7 inch snow dump a few days before that.  The Seattle City records can really be misleading sometimes. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Seattle records don't begin to do that month justice.  The outlying areas like where I live had a monthly average well below freezing that month.

So then when you refer to the "coldest of Feb. of the 20th century" are you referring to your outlying areas or Seattle then? He was obviously referencing Seattle and you can't simply reference your area then call it coldest Feb. of the 20th century.... at least make that clear. 

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Down to 49 and the window is f'ing closed! Brrrr. 

I have a pretty good fire going in the stove tonight.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

So then when you refer to the "coldest of Feb. of the 20th century" are you referring to your outlying areas or Seattle then? He was obviously referencing Seattle and you can't simply reference your area then call it coldest Feb. of the 20th century.... at least make that clear. 

For the Puget Sound region on the whole it was the coldest.  Seattle really underperformed that month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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