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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's quite a brash statement to be making in early October. I'm no wishcaster, and I'm not trying to manifest a cold winter here, but you seem to be banking the entirety your grave prophecy on a single index, this easterly QBO. Every other potential influence is pointing straight at deep troughing in the west.

Again, I could be wrong, but you're acting as if the writing is on the wall here when in reality things are looking brighter than they have been in half a decade. Hell, we're already spying hints of a SPV breakdown. In October! That doesn't happen this early. You've been talking about searching for something to disrupt our impending zonal doom, and well, this is it.

Being real I'm kind of disappointed this is going to be a -QBO winter, but it looks relatively weak compapred to some cycles earlier this century.  Other than that there are many things in the plus column for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Down to 47 now with a decent amount of clearing.  Nippy night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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  • Snow 4
  • scream 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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The interior plateau of British Columbia is getting some of the coldest weather in Canada right now with widespread freezing temps already tonight.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This GFS run is just one cold trough after another.  Really impressive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

This is just silly. Even San Diego gets a dusting. 

Yeah if this came to fruition it would be a mess. Even tropical locations are shown with snow here because this map is an averaged composite of 52 separate iterations of this upcoming winter, each with slightly different initial conditions.

So if even one of them gives Tampico, Mexico an inch of snow, then it shows up as a trace on the "average".

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

This is just silly. Even San Diego gets a dusting. 

With ensembles that far out you get some crazy members.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS has one day next week being really cold with afternoon temps only in the mid 40s.  Lots of nights in the 30s.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's quite a brash statement to be making in early October. I'm no wishcaster, and I'm not trying to manifest a cold winter here, but you seem to be banking the entirety your grave prophecy on a single index, this easterly QBO. Every other potential influence is pointing straight at deep troughing in the west.

Again, I could be wrong, but you're acting as if the writing is on the wall here when in reality things are looking brighter than they have been in half a decade. Hell, we're already spying hints of a SPV breakdown. In October! That doesn't happen this early. You've been talking about searching for something to disrupt our impending zonal doom, and well, this is it.

I’m not saying it’s a sure thing. In fact there is very little consistency with Niña/-QBO winters, since there are more relevant initial boundary conditions in unstable equilibrium vs Niña/+QBO, which is (relatively) predictable.

I would describe this year’s setup as high risk, high reward. If things go right early in the season, it could be an amazing winter. If not, then it could be difficult to salvage.

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At this point I think the chances are at least 50% this will be a top 10% cold October.  Last time we had one of those in a Nina season was 1984.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Snow in San Diego? 😱

obv this is an ensemble mean, so tampico, NOLA and co show up on the ensemble mean.

though I think San Diego is a bit different here, I think they are getting some terrain bleeding from the local coastal mts to their east from deep troughing. San Fran north you can see some actual sea level snow extending out into the ocean, disproving terrain bleeding there

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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19 minutes ago, JBolin said:

What a bunch of $%#^%@

Yup.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

At this point I think the chances are at least 50% this will be a top 10% cold October.  Last time we had one of those in a Nina season was 1984.

BTW, that was also a second year niña/-QBO during solar minimum. And it was very blocky, with a cold October in the West.

So yes, the outcome is not always zonal like 2007/08 or 1974/75. Just need some degree of wave driving early in the season.

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1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

I think that puts us around 3-4 feet. Since it's the GOAT... lock it in right?

Some of that is due to the lower resolution on those maps.

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9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Euro time!! just read through the ol' feb 2019 threads to get me pumped up. 

The 2018 thread was fun to go through. Everyone was soooo done with winter and it was like 99% pictures of Tim’s moms daffodils and then Phil was like woah here comes a SSW with a modified QBO and phase 9 wave runner MJD and then Andrew was like hey the GEM isn’t so bad at day 10 and then it was off to the races!

 

Wine es good

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:
00z GFS - 16 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 16 Day Rainfall totals, Snowfall totals.
October looks like active, especially as we near mid-month. That trough in the extended range is forecasmic. Wow. 😮 C'MON!!!!
 
floop-gfs-2021100600.500h_anom.na(3).gif
qpf_acc.us_nw.png
sn10_acc.us_nw.png

Oh my god that precip/snowfall map would be so beneficial to drought stricken southern Oregon/NorCal.

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
00z GFS - 16 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 16 Day Rainfall totals, Snowfall totals.
October looks like active, especially as we near mid-month. That trough in the extended range is forecasmic. Wow. 😮 C'MON!!!!
 
floop-gfs-2021100600.500h_anom.na(3).gif
qpf_acc.us_nw.png
sn10_acc.us_nw.png

Skiing/snowboarding before Halloween?

I'll be realistic and say Nov 1st (just to cover my a**)

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Down to 44 now.  Amazing how cold that feels this time of year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Really nice looking Euro run.  It shows a lot of clearing early next week with afternoon temps in the low 50s and lows in the 30s.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Did you guys know about the new ocean called the "southern ocean"? I never heard it called that way before. 

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/howmanyoceans.html

 

I actually do remember learning about the Southern Ocean-- I don't feel as though it's quite as mentioned or even recognized (certainly not in the same vein as the other four).

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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