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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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21 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I actually do remember learning about the Southern Ocean-- I don't feel as though it's quite as mentioned or even recognized (certainly not in the same vein as the other four).

I’ve always called it the southern ocean. 🤷‍♂️ 

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7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Two highs below freezing in February, which wasn't terrible. But February 2019 pulled that off AND got 20" of snow too boot. Granted if things swung a little differently it could have been an epic snow producer, I'll give you that.

As for March, though, come on. Barely escaped 40F. Yes it was a good airmass for that time of year, but at that time of year "good airmasses" are underwhelming. Doesn't really count IMO.

Your analysis is definitely Seattle focused, though.

1935-36 was indeed a bit less memorable for a lot of the I-5 corridor in western WA from downtown Seattle to Olympia at least.

The cold in February was top tier however, and the Sound-moderated temps don't do it justice. Downtown Portland had a streak of 13 consecutive days with a high of 35 or lower from February 8-20. Blows 2019 out of the water. The arctic front on February 7 was also one of the strongest to hit the region in the past century. That's best reflected up in Whatcom County, where Blaine hit their all time record of -9 with the CAA.

February 1936 was also very snowy as soon as you got north out of Seattle.  The downtown Everett station recorded 20.5" that month and the late month event featured a big snowstorm from Everett north.

The Halloween cold was in a class of its own and featured Portland's earliest measurable snowfall on record and featured a Halloween snowstorm in the Willamette Valley that deposited 5" on Salem and Corvallis.

The late March and early April event was great as well. There was really heavy c-zone snow in late March away from Seattle. Bothell had a 36/32 day on March 27 with at least 4" on the ground on the 28th. Snoqualmie Falls recorded 17" of snow on March 27-28. 

Downtown Portland infamously had a 37/31 day on April 1 with 5.2" of snow from heavy showers. Pretty wet and sloppy but still rather legit, especially as soon as you gained a little elevation.

It was a pretty fascinating cold season with a lot of highlights. Just not spectacular for Seattle.

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9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Your analysis is definitely Seattle focused, though.

1935-36 was indeed a bit less memorable for a lot of the I-5 corridor in western WA from downtown Seattle to Olympia at least.

The cold in February was top tier however, and the Sound-moderated temps don't do it justice. Downtown Portland had a streak of 13 consecutive days with a high of 35 or lower from February 8-20. Blows 2019 out of the water. The arctic front on February 7 was also one of the strongest to hit the region in the past century. That's best reflected up in Whatcom County, where Blaine hit their all time record of -9 with the CAA.

February 1936 was also very snowy as soon as you got north out of Seattle.  The downtown Everett station recorded 20.5" that month and the late month event featured a big snowstorm from Everett north.

The Halloween cold was in a class of its own and featured Portland's earliest measurable snowfall on record and featured a Halloween snowstorm in the Willamette Valley that deposited 5" on Salem and Corvallis.

The late March and early April event was great as well. There was really heavy c-zone snow in late March away from Seattle. Bothell had a 36/32 day on March 27 with at least 4" on the ground on the 28th. Snoqualmie Falls recorded 17" of snow on March 27-28. 

Downtown Portland infamously had a 37/31 day on April 1 with 5.2" of snow from heavy showers. Pretty wet and sloppy but still rather legit, especially as soon as you gained a little elevation.

It was a pretty fascinating cold season with a lot of highlights. Just not spectacular for Seattle.

Okay that makes a lot more sense for February since the rest of the country froze solid and then some.

Though my point stands for Oct/Mar/Apr. Yes I understand that those were great airmasses, but my point being is that the best you can do at that time of year is like 35/30 spreads with snow that turns to slush by noon and is gone the next day. If that's what floats your goat, then I'm all for it. Hell, in the moment I'd even be getting in on the hype. But preferentially I'd like way more to see a good January airmass instead of an April or October one.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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The 30s had some good winter weather. January 1930 is the coldest month on record for some places, 1932/33 had some very legit shots of arctic air including Oregon’s all time record low of -54 at Seneca in February 1933. January 1937 was top tier as well, followed by a shocking 25” one day snow event at SLE on 2/1/37. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 30s had some good winter weather. January 1930 is the coldest month on record for some places, 1932/33 had some very legit shots of arctic air including Oregon’s all time record low of -54 at Seneca in February 1933. January 1937 was top tier as well, followed by a shocking 25” one day snow event at SLE on 2/1/37. 

That was a very boom or bust decade. It seemed that all of the cold in the northern hemisphere was concentrated towards the poles with a massively amplified Hadley cell. But when you did get the cold, you were getting raw, unfiltered arctic air.

January 1930 was unreal. Eugene went from 1/7 to 1/27 only hitting 36F once. 13 days below freezing, 11 below 30F, 3 below 25F. Multiple snow events.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Euro has More precip for OR @Joshua Lake Oswego through day 6

Dry run overall though. Soon, we will be getting to the time of year where if 10 day model runs are showing less than 2-3'' of rain for the I-5 corridor lowlands, it will be a below average forecast.

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14 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Dry run overall though. Soon, we will be getting to the time of year where if 10 day model runs are showing less than 2-3'' of rain for the I-5 corridor lowlands, it will be a below average forecast.

October doesn’t typically turn wet until the 2nd half of the month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Okay that makes a lot more sense for February since the rest of the country froze solid and then some.

Though my point stands for Oct/Mar/Apr. Yes I understand that those were great airmasses, but my point being is that the best you can do at that time of year is like 35/30 spreads with snow that turns to slush by noon and is gone the next day. If that's what floats your goat, then I'm all for it. Hell, in the moment I'd even be getting in on the hype. But preferentially I'd like way more to see a good January airmass instead of an April or October one.

Not a huge fan of late season events either, but if you're going to do it then that winter would be the way to go. I just don't agree with the characterization that we would be truly disappointed with that seasonal progression, given how much happened. It was a far more legit season than probably every 21st century winter outside of 2008-09, 2016-17, and perhaps 2003-04, 2006-07, 2013-14, and 2018-19 in select locations. 

 

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42 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Dry run overall though. Soon, we will be getting to the time of year where if 10 day model runs are showing less than 2-3'' of rain for the I-5 corridor lowlands, it will be a below average forecast.

PDX is running well above average for precip since 9/15.

Looks to continue. 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 30s had some good winter weather. January 1930 is the coldest month on record for some places, 1932/33 had some very legit shots of arctic air including Oregon’s all time record low of -54 at Seneca in February 1933. January 1937 was top tier as well, followed by a shocking 25” one day snow event at SLE on 2/1/37. 

I've always viewed the 1939-41 mega Nino as kind of a turning point. Prior to that period, almost every winter here had some good snow events if nothing else, and most all of them had arctic airmasses. Only a select number of baddies (1933-34, 1930-31, 1925-26, 1918-19, 1914-15, 1891-92, 1888-89, 1877-78, 1868-69) failed in that regard. 

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Seems like we are set up for something decent this winter, but having lived through that 1997-2003 period I will never count my chickens before they hatch. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like we are set up for something decent this winter, but having lived through that 1997-2003 period I will never count my chickens before they hatch. 

2003-2004 Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucked. 

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06z GFS was plentiful for out here. Not a big fan of early season cold/snow as you all know but we could REALLY use the moisture.

1497804458_ScreenShot2021-10-06at8_06_40AM.thumb.png.95a9be11a4b63bc6daf86f31597e9332.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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14 minutes ago, JBolin said:

2003-2004 Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucked. 

2002-03 sure did. That late October 2002 cold was epic though! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Took my son to school today. Overcast and rainy. 45F. Typical of fall on the west side for sure. We get more snow than rain here so I love rain.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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9 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

obv this is an ensemble mean, so tampico, NOLA and co show up on the ensemble mean.

though I think San Diego is a bit different here, I think they are getting some terrain bleeding from the local coastal mts to their east from deep troughing. San Fran north you can see some actual sea level snow extending out into the ocean, disproving terrain bleeding there

I'm originally from Oakland and one Saturday in the mid/later 90's we came back from a day in SF and it was actually lightly snowing. The elevation there is roughly 220 ft ( at elementary school 3 houses down the block) and on the west side of the coastal hills which rise to about 1800 ft. It only lasted for abut 10 mins and of course melted on contact. But it was not hail which they get and not graupel but actual soft flakes. Those coastal hills do get snow maybe once a year at the ridge and had a good dusting during Feb 2019.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like we are set up for something decent this winter, but having lived through that 1997-2003 period I will never count my chickens before they hatch. 

I remember such big time hype about the 1999-2000 La Niña season…I think it was? Mt Baker got their record snowfall but it was a massive dud in the lowlands. 
December 1998 featured a nice little event however. At least up here. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Just told my family and friends!!! 😱

They need to zoom in on western Washington, I can’t see my house. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Over 50,000 flashes with yesterday's storms in Arizona.

243669815_4301614339920388_1851831500408965073_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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This totally looks like it's touching the ground, or within 10 feet of. 

Most likely scud unfortunately. North of La Center yesterday. 

244620932_10158968935879442_1086342569109776265_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 hours ago, JBolin said:

2003-2004 Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucked. 

The arctic airmass of January 2004 is the best one of the last 20 years. I lived in Chattaroy, WA, which is near Deer Park. Spokane dropped to -21F, and Deer Park dropped to -28F. 

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3 hours ago, JBolin said:

2003-2004 Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucked. 

Couldn't tell if you meant 02-03 or just lived in the wrong place, right Winter! 

 

4 minutes ago, snow drift said:

The arctic airmass of January 2004 is the best one of the last 20 years. I lived in Chattaroy, WA, which is near Deer Park. Spokane dropped to -21F, and Deer Park dropped to -28F. 

Some of the snow event happened down here but never got below zero. Impressive in Spokane considering the elevation.

Coldest day was 24/2.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Team Red L seems to be going for a super spirit bomb attack in the pacific at the end of this run.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-instant_ptype-1633521600-1634515200-1634904000-20.gif

Never thought I'd see Dragon Ball references here; I'm still a fan of the series. Waiting for Super to return. 🤪

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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17 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Couldn't tell if you meant 02-03 or just lived in the wrong place, right Winter! 

 

Some of the snow event happened down here but never got below zero. Impressive in Spokane considering the elevation.

Coldest day was 24/2.

Some small towns around Deer Park dropped to <-30F. The record low in Spokane is -30F, so lows of <-20 do happen from time to time. February 1996 had a couple <-20F readings. December 2008 was just shy of -20F with a reading of -18F.

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