PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A beautiful 65F out there.

[Phil]

For reference:

 

[Phil]

Easterly shear already approaching 50hpa. Full blown -QBO likely for the middle and later part of winter.

 

[Cloud]

Just noticed this tree is crooked from the upstairs vantage point in our room.  Used to be straight! I think the combination of dryness, the recent precip and winds may have tilted it…. May have been weakened by lack of rain over the summer.  It’s actually a big one and may actually go down this fall/winter at the next windstorm. 

[snow_wizard]

The models are really kicking out some downright cold solutions for so early in the season now.  Really sexy looking GOA block / NW trough.  The 12z ECMWF showed a few highs in the low 50s for SEA coming up with one low below 40.  Brrrr.

[Meatyorologist]

42 minutes ago, Phil said:

For reference:

 

Wow, that's a big outlier.

[snow_wizard]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

Easterly shear already approaching 50hpa. Full blown -QBO likely for the middle and later part of winter.

We'll see.  The numeric data I've seen suggests a weak and short lived minus anomaly at 50mb.

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

God forbid anything would indicate global warming might be coming to an end!  Glaciers could be grinding down the streets of Seattle and the global warming alarmists would say this in no way suggests an end to the global warming (which is mostly natural cycle BTW).

[The Blob]

6 hours ago, Eujunga said:

Makes sense I didn't remember Oct 2019 as being particularly cold. I was in L.A. that month and it was the usual offshore wind / wildfire / smokefest down there. I recorded a +4.1 departure for the month.

I was still living in Covina at that time. October that year was really nice. Honestly the only month that sucked for me that year was August because it actually got hot for us.

I didn't realize how nice it was to live there till my parents were complaining about the endless 100+ heat and we would mostly be in the 80s maybe hit 90.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ECMWF spit out a low of 35 for McChord on the 8th.  Can't wait!

[snow_wizard]

I have no idea how the forecasters at Weatherbell managed to come up with a warm west / cold east forecast for this winter.  Pretty daring totally ignoring La Nina climo.  Their forecast falls into the least likely camp to verify.  If this winter is ruined for us I suspect it would be too flat of a ridge over the NE Pacific / GOA as opposed to a ridge along the West Coast.  I can't even think of a second year Nina that had a Western ridge problem.  1999-2000 was a disaster, but that was horrible for the entire country, and not caused by a Western ridge.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have no idea how the forecasters at Weatherbell managed to come up with a warm west / cold east forecast for this winter.  Pretty daring totally ignoring La Nina climo.  Their forecast falls into the least likely camp to verify.  If this winter is ruined for us I suspect it would be too flat of a ridge over the NE Pacific / GOA as opposed to a ridge along the West Coast.  I can't even think of a second year Nina that had a Western ridge problem.  1999-2000 was a disaster, but that was horrible for the entire country, and not caused by a Western ridge.

East coast bias. 

[Meatyorologist]

sigh

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

East coast bias. 

I expect if it were currently 1949 they would have a warm winter forecast for us.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

God forbid anything would indicate global warming might be coming to an end!  Glaciers could be grinding down the streets of Seattle and the global warming alarmists would say this in no way suggests an end to the global warming (which is mostly natural cycle BTW).

Uh, Jim, there are two words in the phrase “global warming.” From that same linked article:

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Uh, Jim, there are two words in the phrase “global warming.” From that same linked article:

I'm not denying we've had global warming for a while now.  Still a bounce back from the Little Ice Age.

[MossMan]

If we can hit 115 in late June, we can hit -115 in late November! Book it! 

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to be interested to see just how cold this month will actually end up.  Right now the models indicate a top 5% or 10% cold October is on the table for us.  Really nice looking pattern coming up if you like below normal temps and great leaf turning weather.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not denying we've had global warming for a while now.  Still a bounce back from the Little Ice Age.

My point was that, contrary to your earlier post, the ongoing antarctic cold snap is not in any way evidence that global warming is winding down. Overall global temperatures are still averaging above normal.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MossMan said:

If we can hit 115 in late June, we can hit -115 in late November! Book it! 

One thing for sure is the atmosphere has shown it's capable of great extremes the past couple of years.  Very amplified base state.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My point was that, contrary to your earlier post, the ongoing antarctic cold snap is not in any way evidence that global warming is winding down. Overall global temperatures are still averaging above normal.

I was just commenting on how just about anything could happen and these people would say the Earth is going to catch on fire in 20 years.

[TacomaWaWx]

61/50 today. Beautiful day high clouds increasing. Watching the new sopranos prequel movie been looking forward to this for a long time!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just commenting on how just about anything could happen and these people would say the Earth is going to catch on fire in 20 years.

It’s pretty darn likely warming will continue as long as CO₂ continues to increase just because of the basic physics of the atmosphere. Saying that maybe it won't because for some unexplained reason the sun might dim is a bit like saying money spent on a new roof (when the current one is leaking) may be wasted, because next year a meteor might hit it and require repairs anyhow. (And I can’t prove there won’t be a meteor, much like I can’t prove the sun won’t unexpectedly dim.)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

God forbid anything would indicate global warming might be coming to an end!  Glaciers could be grinding down the streets of Seattle and the global warming alarmists would say this in no way suggests an end to the global warming (which is mostly natural cycle BTW).

Keep the politics off the observations topic please.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just commenting on how just about anything could happen and these people would say the Earth is going to catch on fire in 20 years.

Well we have endured a fuckk ton of warmer than normal months. Only March was below normal over the last like 18 months. And we’ve almost caught on fire in the last 2 years so there’s that.

[MWG]

53/80 for today and we will have a couple of more days with a high of low 80's but it's been so beautiful!!! This summer have felt we have been in a capsule and just now we have been released lol

 

[Timmy Supercell]

19 minutes ago, MWG said:

53/80 for today and we will have a couple of more days with a high of low 80's but it's been so beautiful!!! This summer have felt we have been in a capsule and just now we have been released lol

 

I'm still full from all the 90-burgers. 

[Timmy Supercell]

I have exactly a month left in Klamath Falls (this house just sold to someone and all the inspections are complete). So I figured I'll make my signature short by taking a screen shot of my current one and laying an Imgur link below for it. 

Looking at homes in Kentucky! Big changes are ahead. I waited until I was more sure of what the situation was before telling more folks about this.
It's going to be in a city at least as big as K-Falls. Right now it looks like Ashland, KY. 

I'm aware there is quite a difference in climate and seems like a lot of homes are air-conditioned. Also most likely won't pick a home that will end up with flood damage; it'll be in a downtown setting much like my current setup. Summers are warm and there are skeeters, and like 50 some odd t'storm days a year? 

It'll be an adventure. Cities do have water main breaks just about on a every summer basis in that part of the US, so we'll probably have a regular rotation of backup drinking water when we shop. Just the little extra things I'll need to get used to in a different area. Maybe I'll see my first ever funnel cloud and/or tornado next year?

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I expect if it were currently 1949 they would have a warm winter forecast for us.

In 2007 JB favored 1949-50 as his top analog. He's predicted a cold West before.

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I have exactly a month left in Klamath Falls (this house just sold to someone and all the inspections are complete). So I figured I'll make my signature short by taking a screen shot of my current one and laying an Imgur link below for it. 

Looking at homes in Kentucky! Big changes are ahead. I waited until I was more sure of what the situation was before telling more folks about this.
It's going to be in a city at least as big as K-Falls. Right now it looks like Ashland, KY. 

I'm aware there is quite a difference in climate and seems like a lot of homes are air-conditioned. Also most likely won't pick a home that will end up with flood damage; it'll be in a downtown setting much like my current setup. Summers are warm and there are skeeters, and like 50 some odd t'storm days a year? 

It'll be an adventure. Cities do have water main breaks just about on a every summer basis in that part of the US, so we'll probably have a regular rotation of backup drinking water when we shop. Just the little extra things I'll need to get used to in a different area. Maybe I'll see my first ever funnel cloud and/or tornado next year?

You'll get some supercells down there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I have exactly a month left in Klamath Falls (this house just sold to someone and all the inspections are complete). So I figured I'll make my signature short by taking a screen shot of my current one and laying an Imgur link below for it. 

Looking at homes in Kentucky! Big changes are ahead. I waited until I was more sure of what the situation was before telling more folks about this.
It's going to be in a city at least as big as K-Falls. Right now it looks like Ashland, KY. 

I'm aware there is quite a difference in climate and seems like a lot of homes are air-conditioned. Also most likely won't pick a home that will end up with flood damage; it'll be in a downtown setting much like my current setup. Summers are warm and there are skeeters, and like 50 some odd t'storm days a year? 

It'll be an adventure. Cities do have water main breaks just about on a every summer basis in that part of the US, so we'll probably have a regular rotation of backup drinking water when we shop. Just the little extra things I'll need to get used to in a different area. Maybe I'll see my first ever funnel cloud and/or tornado next year?

I’ll make sure to head down the road once I move to Indiana.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I have exactly a month left in Klamath Falls (this house just sold to someone and all the inspections are complete). So I figured I'll make my signature short by taking a screen shot of my current one and laying an Imgur link below for it. 

Looking at homes in Kentucky! Big changes are ahead. I waited until I was more sure of what the situation was before telling more folks about this.
It's going to be in a city at least as big as K-Falls. Right now it looks like Ashland, KY. 

I'm aware there is quite a difference in climate and seems like a lot of homes are air-conditioned. Also most likely won't pick a home that will end up with flood damage; it'll be in a downtown setting much like my current setup. Summers are warm and there are skeeters, and like 50 some odd t'storm days a year? 

It'll be an adventure. Cities do have water main breaks just about on a every summer basis in that part of the US, so we'll probably have a regular rotation of backup drinking water when we shop. Just the little extra things I'll need to get used to in a different area. Maybe I'll see my first ever funnel cloud and/or tornado next year?

My Dad grew up in Ashland, Kentucky. It’s pretty similar in size to Klamath. On the Ohio River. My aunt and cousins live in Ironton, Ohio across the bridge.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s pretty darn likely warming will continue as long as CO₂ continues to increase just because of the basic physics of the atmosphere. Saying that maybe it won't because for some unexplained reason the sun might dim is a bit like saying money spent on a new roof (when the current one is leaking) may be wasted, because next year a meteor might hit it and require repairs anyhow. (And I can’t prove there won’t be a meteor, much like I can’t prove the sun won’t unexpectedly dim.)

You're totally ignoring the natural cycle aspect of this.  There is much we don't understand as of yet.

[TacomaWaWx]

Good luck down in Kentucky Timmy. Hope you see some big storms and enjoy it out east. 

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, snow drift said:

In 2007 JB favored 1949-50 as his top analog. He's predicted a cold West before.

14 years ago!

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

14 years ago!

Predicting a warm west scenario in a second year nina seems pretty ridiculous to me as well. I think this winter will be decent atleast…not expecting anything major just one or two bouts of cold and a bit of snow. Think it’ll be a great year for mountain snowpack but in a La Niña year that’s pretty typical. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Well we have endured a fuckk ton of warmer than normal months. Only March was below normal over the last like 18 months. And we’ve almost caught on fire in the last 2 years so there’s that.

It will even out over the next few years.  You would have been saying the same thing in the late 1930s through mid 1940s.  That was another horrific period people don't talk about.  At least lately it's just mostly been the summers.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Predicting a warm west scenario in a second year nina seems pretty ridiculous to me as well. I think this winter will be decent atleast…not expecting anything major just one or two bouts of cold and a bit of snow. Think it’ll be a great year for mountain snowpack but in a La Niña year that’s pretty typical. 

Yeah...A western ridge seems very unlikely.  As I say the wave train being too flat would be our most likely path to a bust this winter.  If we can maintain the huge positive height / surface pressure anoms over the GOA we have been seeing this winter could be awesome.  I think the very chilly weather that is upcoming is a good omen.

[TacomaWaWx]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It will even out over the next few years.  You would have been saying the same thing in the late 1930s through mid 1940s.  That was another horrific period people don't talk about.  At least lately it's just mostly been the summers.

It’ll be interesting to see how the next 10-20 years play out for temps here in the PNW and across the globe. You do have to admit though…humans definitely have an effect on global tempature rises. Releasing tons of CO2 into the atmosphere certainly does something. I do think you have a point about these things being cyclical…but there’s definitely a manmade element to the warming too we’re seeing now even if we’re in a naturally caused warmer post mini ice age rebound. 

[snow_wizard]

Very interestingly the last time we had a solidly cold October with a La Nina was 2008.  I was actually pretty surprised to see that just now.  A cold October with a La Nina is usually a pretty solid bet for a good winter...especially second and third year Ninas.

People who are not fans of cold Octobers should be rooting for this one being it's a second year Nina.  Years with cold a cold October during a second year Nina were 1950, 1955, 1971, 1984, and 2008.  All good ones.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’ll be interesting to see how the next 10-20 years play out for temps here in the PNW and across the globe. You do have to admit though…humans definitely have an effect on global tempature rises. Releasing tons of CO2 into the atmosphere certainly does something. I do think you have a point about these things being cyclical…but there’s definitely a manmade element to the warming too we’re seeing now even if we’re in a naturally caused warmer post mini ice age rebound. 

Ed Berry who is a VERY respected climate scientist is a denier of man caused global warming and he came up with a graphic that shows how miniscule the man caused CO2 contribution to the environment is compared to Mother Nature.  I wish I could find that graphic again.  It's literally like a mole hill next to a mountain.

[MossMan]

This area of grass was the one spot that was completely brown and cooked. Only took about 2 weeks to become lush green again. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It will even out over the next few years.  You would have been saying the same thing in the late 1930s through mid 1940s.  That was another horrific period people don't talk about.  At least lately it's just mostly been the summers.

That stretch looks better with more cold and snow than what we have endured lately. I don’t think they went 4 straight winters without a sub-freezing high back then like what we are in the midst of.

I used to say it all flips around one day. It does…except for SW Oregon. Once we are all dead maybe things will change and the cycle will cool off again.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Ed Berry who is a VERY respected climate scientist is a denier of man caused global warming and he came up with a graphic that shows how miniscule the man caused CO2 contribution to the environment is compared to Mother Nature.  I wish I could find that graphic again.  It's literally like a mole hill next to a mountain.

Well either way the next decade or two will be pretty telling. To me…the current warming climate and industrialization go hand in hand…but I respect your opinion. Lots of the climate debate stuff has become very politically polarized and not founded in science rather emotion lately…as have many other things. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Mariner hitters look tense... loosen up boys 

[ShawniganLake]

It’s October 1st. 

[snow_wizard]

If the models are anywhere near correct the first half of the this month is going to be notably chilly.  Can't wait to see how it plays out.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Poof goes Tuesday’s rain. Friday’s already went poof a few runs ago. Next Sunday is fizzling out too. Looks chilly though. Overall, looks cool and dry after the weekend. 

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Poof goes Tuesday’s rain. Friday’s already went poof a few runs ago. Next Sunday is fizzling out too. Looks chilly though. Overall, looks cool and dry after the weekend. 

Probably going to be frost soon by the looks of it.

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

14 years ago!

A cold prediction from him is the kiss of death. I'm not too worried about his predictions. Let's hangout under the radar.