PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[snow drift]

57 with a dewpoint of 34. Should be frosty tonight.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

back in business with the 18z. Much more potent with the follow on systems. 

Looks good. Unfortunately, the Euro is not biting. Very dry the next 10 days.

[MossMan]

First fire of the season. I worked really hard starting it! 

[snow_wizard]

55 / 41 for the day here.  So far this cool period is off to a stronger start than I expected.  Can't wait for the colder mins coming up.

[TacomaWaWx]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

55 / 41 for the day here.  So far this cool period is off to a stronger start than I expected.  Can't wait for the colder mins coming up.

56/46 here. 

[Meatyorologist]

 

[NWbyNW]

Very cool afternoon in north Everett.  It was sunny to partly sunny most of the day.  Then we got some rain, and now it's super dark outside with thunder being heard and lightning flashes sporadically.  Heavy rain in the distance over the water, and at times rain over me.  I think it will dump here soon.  Some cool lighting and cloud formation I think some will appreciate.

[Meatyorologist]

 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

This belongs on the east coast.

Lightning bolt over Lake Goodwin! Wish I was at the family lake house right now. 

[MossMan]

Thunder!! 

[TacomaWaWx]

Calm here down south. What a lame year for storms here had one or two rumbles of thunder the whole year. Last decent storm we had was 10/13/20….almost a year ago now. 

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Calm here down south. What a lame year for storms here had one or two rumbles of thunder the whole year. Last decent storm we had was 10/13/20….almost a year ago now. 

It was around then that we had marble sized hail here under a PSCZ with lots of lightning. Largest hail I've seen in Seattle.

[Thunder98]

5 hours ago, snow drift said:

Hot off the presses from Jacque

Bring on El Niño!

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Ok, I’m ready for another bet with the odds seemingly stacked against me.

$20 says that PDX gets <.25’’ of rain from right now until the end of Sunday. I would possibly be willing to make the same bet through 7 days from now, but that’s unfair to me without some odds.

Everybody talking about how wet and active it’s going to be, put your money where your mouth is.
 

The ICON is on board with the Euro now. Huge shift at 00z. The trend is  not our friend. We’ll see if the GFS bows down on the 00z or waits a little bit. Inevitably, it will follow suit.

[Gradient Keeper]

Here it is folks. Ladies and Gentleman, tonight marks the beginning of model riding season! Granted we likely won't have anything too exciting to track, but ya never know!

 

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[TacomaWaWx]

25 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

Jim will like these stats. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[ShawniganLake]

High of 49.8F here today .  50/40 on the day with 0.66” of rain.  It was actually a miserable wet afternoon to be working outside. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[MWG]

We don't usually turn on the heater this early in the season but today we had to! Currently 48 degrees. 

[MossMan]

Up to .45” on the day! 
Currently 45 degrees. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

37 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Ok, I’m ready for another bet with the odds seemingly stacked against me.

$20 says that PDX gets <.25’’ of rain from right now until the end of Sunday. I would possibly be willing to make the same bet through 7 days from now, but that’s unfair to me without some odds.

Everybody talking about how wet and active it’s going to be, put your money where your mouth is.
 

The ICON is on board with the Euro now. Huge shift at 00z. The trend is  not our friend. We’ll see if the GFS bows down on the 00z or waits a little bit. Inevitably, it will follow suit.

The GFS backdown has begun. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7, Rainfall & Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er (c)Rob 2017?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

Kona low??? Lol

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Kona low??? Lol

Here we go!

00z ECMWF in 55 minutes

[Phil]

7 hours ago, snow drift said:

Hot off the presses from Jacque

A transition to +ENSO next summer with oncoming +QBO would be a disaster for the West. Worst timing imaginable.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

A little sneak peak at the storms I'll be getting next Spring! 

This summer was amazing for severe weather here. That big western ridge sent shortwaves crashing right into Appalachia, sparking storms almost daily (and legit severe outbreaks multiple times per week).

Heck we’ve had two thunderstorm days in the last week despite sitting under a ridge. Some years never quit.

[Skagit Weather]

Got caught outside this evening around sunset as the thunderstorms moved through. Just two very distant flashes of lightning (no thunder) and an incredible orange sky as a slit in the clouds lit up all the virga. Currently 47F with 0.22" on the day.

[snow drift]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

A transition to +ENSO next summer with oncoming +QBO would be a disaster for the West. Worst timing imaginable.

It looks like it's heading that way. We'll know better next spring.

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, Phil said:

A transition to +ENSO next summer with oncoming +QBO would be a disaster for the West. Worst timing imaginable.

So the ice age that began in 2017 might finally start retreating?   

 

[MossMan]

39!!! 

[Gradient Keeper]

38 minutes ago, Phil said:

A transition to +ENSO next summer with oncoming +QBO would be a disaster for the West. Worst timing imaginable.

I'm not super good on the QBO. What kind of weather would that result in?

[Gradient Keeper]

Good news. That big ridge on the 00z GFS Op is a massive outlier.