Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


Recommended Posts

Looks like we got down to 38F. Very nice night. Up to 43F now.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been away for a bit due to moving. Relocated from Shoreline to Mercer Island. Got a nice spot close to the highest point of the island with a view of Lake Washington. 

Was definitely chilly last night. Got down to 40*. I'm betting most of us in the area will see frost within the next 7 days. Trees sure started turning quickly!

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Geos said:

Been away for a bit due to moving. Relocated from Shoreline to Mercer Island. Got a nice spot close to the highest point of the island with a view of Lake Washington. 

Was definitely chilly last night. Got down to 40*. I'm betting most of us in the area will see frost within the next 7 days. Trees sure started turning quickly!

Weird the ones here are still green and no signs of color except for the ones that got burned back in June.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Weird the ones here are still green and no signs of color except for the ones that got burned back in June.

Could have something to do with the fact that we are hundreds of miles north of you up here.  ;)

  • Popcorn 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Weird the ones here are still green and no signs of color except for the ones that got burned back in June.

For the most part, it's the maple trees that have turned around here. I was up in the Index area early in the week and all trees are definitely turning up there. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Phil said:

Analogs derived from ENSO/low pass, MJO, and equatorial rossby wave activity suggest the ongoing -PNA/+NPO pattern (Aleutian High, Alaska low, E-Canada ridge) will continue until early November. Could have a long way to run still.

Courtesy of Dr. Paul Roundy.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

So if I am reading the animation on the link provided correctly. Nov will be a mega ridge torch fest for the west? I was hoping for an early start to winter for a change. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most trees in Everett have at least a hint of color. The cottonwoods are 50% yellow, changing from just a hint of yellow only a couple days ago. Dog woods are full on fall and the bigger maples are just starting to turn.

Might get a good week or two of color.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could have something to do with the fact that we are hundreds of miles north of you up here.  ;)

Is latitude the only factor? I legitimately don’t know.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Is latitude the only factor? I legitimately don’t know.

I am sure there are lots of variables... but latitude is probably the biggest factor.     The trees in Anchorage are mostly bare already.  

dtnnwmega.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, T-Town said:

Neighborhood coyote. 

57F6CC1B-0DD4-46D7-9788-3EC0C8F575BF.jpeg

Looks a little rough around the edges! At my place the Coyotes look amazingly healthy right now, can’t really see this one in the pic very well but it was just sitting there looking at my dogs freaking out at it at the back of our 5 acres…Probably sizing up if it’s worth trying to jump the fence to munch on one of them. Took me yelling at it to run off, they have been quite active at night with their yipping. 

C00B1D8D-1D15-412A-86C1-F2DF15E879B3.jpeg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks a little rough around the edges! At my place the Coyotes look amazingly healthy right now, can’t really see this one in the pic very well but it was just sitting there looking at my dogs freaking out at it at the back of our 5 acres…Probably sizing up if it’s worth trying to jump the fence to munch on one of them. Took me yelling at it to run off, they have been quite active at night with their yipping. 

C00B1D8D-1D15-412A-86C1-F2DF15E879B3.jpeg

Tacoma coyotes are urban coyotes. Gotta maintain a rough exterior to maintain their street cred. 

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • lol 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sure there are lots of variables... but latitude is probably the biggest factor.     The trees in Anchorage are mostly bare already.  

dtnnwmega.jpg

 

Elevation is a bigger factor. I'm in New Hampshire right now and it's very noticeably different above 1000' throughout the state. Still a lot of green leaves in the valleys but the hills are a brilliant red and orange.

A couple hundred miles of latitude isn't going to make as big of a difference. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Elevation is a bigger factor. I'm in New Hampshire right now and it's very noticeably different above 1000' throughout the state, still a lot of green leaves in the valleys but the hills are a brilliant red and orange.

A couple hundred miles of latitude isn't going to make as big of a difference. 

I just did a web cam tour of Minnesota where elevation is not a factor at all and the trees are much more bare in the central and northern part of the state compared to the southern part of the state.    So latitude is a huge factor.  

Here is the latest fall color map... latitude is everything there.

 

 

current.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Tacoma coyotes are urban coyotes. Gotta maintain a rough exterior to maintain their street cred. 

The ones I’ve seen around here are pretty ragged looking…out on Anderson island they’re big and healthy looking. This coyote is a lot bigger than it looks. I guess they tend to do better in rural areas?

B3305528-A4FC-4A95-9115-165B52C24612.png

  • Like 7

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks a little rough around the edges! At my place the Coyotes look amazingly healthy right now, can’t really see this one in the pic very well but it was just sitting there looking at my dogs freaking out at it at the back of our 5 acres…Probably sizing up if it’s worth trying to jump the fence to munch on one of them. Took me yelling at it to run off, they have been quite active at night with their yipping. 

C00B1D8D-1D15-412A-86C1-F2DF15E879B3.jpeg

Coyotes are a big problem here.  I finally put up some powerful LED floodlights that light up a large area around the house that I can flip on from my cell phone.  That gets them running.  They were waking us up two or three times a night yipping and yelping within 50 feet of our bedroom windows.  Up to 50F out there now.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now 51˚F after a low of 39˚F. Coldest night of the season so far.

Spent the night camped at the 2500 foot level of Sumas Mountain and it was sure a chilly night up there. Just missed frost/freeze conditions, though. That was probably due to being on a slope with good cold air drainage. Bet there was frost in the valley below.

  • Like 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just did a web cam tour of Minnesota where elevation is not a factor at all and the trees are much more bare in the central and northern part of the state compared to the southern part of the state.    So latitude is a huge factor.  

Here is the latest fall color map... latitude is everything there.

 

 

current.png

Maybe in a flat Midwest state where temp distribution is much more evenly meridional. Temps and soil moisture are what are important and in the PNW elevation is a bigger driver. Springfield to Seattle isn't generally going to be some huge difference and it's the same plant and hardiness zone anyways. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

So if I am reading the animation on the link provided correctly. Nov will be a mega ridge torch fest for the west? I was hoping for an early start to winter for a change. 

Not the whole month, but there’s a good chance for a ridgy period in there, yes.

  • Sun 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Maybe in a flat Midwest state where temp distribution is much more evenly meridional. Temps and soil moisture are what are important and in the PNW elevation is a bigger driver. Springfield to Seattle isn't generally going to be some huge difference and it's the same plant and hardiness zone anyways. 

Possibly... but trees are responding to a lowering sun angle so there will be a short period when the changing colors are more noticeable as you go north.   Its been uniformly warm in the Midwest but the trees are steadily changing colors from north to south.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just did a web cam tour of Minnesota where elevation is not a factor at all and the trees are much more bare in the central and northern part of the state compared to the southern part of the state.    So latitude is a huge factor.  

Here is the latest fall color map... latitude is everything there.

 

 

current.png

Both matter. Trees higher in the Appalachians are already turning noticeably while down here it’s a sea of green.

Sunlight matters, but if that was the end all be all, there’d be little to no variation in peak color dates from year to year.

Not to mention moisture balance/drought, etc.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dropped to 35 here last night with some frost on the rooftops.  The clouds stayed thinner than the models had anticipated.  We are really putting up some nice minus departures now.  Monday night continues to look downright chilly!

  • Like 5

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z models have pretty much nixed the idea of getting warmer anytime soon.  Pretty intense trough in the 9 / 10 day time frame.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot of old time analogs today.  Most are pre 1980.  Pretty impressive to see both 1955 and 1985 up there.  They ended up the two coldest Novembers of the 20th century.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of old time analogs today.  Most are pre 1980.  Pretty impressive to see both 1955 and 1985 up there.  They ended up the two coldest Novembers of the 20th century.

Phils weird MJO future predicter thingy showed a very warm Nov. Judah Cohen has been talking about a super early SSW event as well by late Oct. So maybe the fun starts late Nov early Dec? I am expecting a big Dec so I will pick Dec 1970 as my Analog. 

  • lol 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of old time analogs today.  Most are pre 1980.  Pretty impressive to see both 1955 and 1985 up there.  They ended up the two coldest Novembers of the 20th century.

Just like this past summer... its very likely that nothing goes according to any plan this winter.    These analog lists never seem to mean anything for the future,      

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Crazily overdue for a 65+ mph widespread event not from a t'storm or dry east wind.

Cinnamon Roll Storms!

Well according to the AGW crowd. Not only are these storms still possible but they should be more frequent! 

  • Like 1
  • Windy 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Phils weird MJO future predicter thingy showed a very warm Nov. Judah Cohen has been talking about a super early SSW event as well by late Oct. So maybe the fun starts late Nov early Dec? I am expecting a big Dec so I will pick Dec 1970 as my Analog. 

We have had some very warm Novembers after cold Octobers like this.  Wouldn't shock me, but a real cold one wouldn't either.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ..... said:

My phone app shows nearly all of the rain advertised next week as having dried up. Looks cool and gray.

The big change has been for the troughs to come right down on us instead of digging a bit offshore.  Better for cold nights, but worse for rain.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We’ve had sufficient rain recently. Bring on the frost!

I am sure we will still get plenty of rain... but we don't really need more rain now.   At least up here.   It will be raining for months.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

12DE056E-63C0-4284-989C-5402D5BEEC11.thumb.jpeg.ef77758854dd2fa8f6b2df6697128340.jpeg

Low of 37, beautiful October day. Thinking of going to find some temps in the 20s tomorrow AM. Can’t wait til all I have to do is step outside to feel 20s.

Maybe Tuesday, but we will more likely see 30 to 32 on that day.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We’ve had sufficient rain recently. Bring on the frost!

I love it when it clears out with these cold troughs over us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...